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This paper proposes a data-driven machine learning framework for parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification in epidemic models based on two key ingredients: (i) prior parameters learning via the cross-entropy method and (ii) update of the model calibration and uncertainty propagation through approximate Bayesian computation. The effectiveness of the new methodology is illustrated with the aid of actual data from COVID-19 epidemic at Rio de Janeiro city in Brazil, employing an ordinary differential equation-based model with a generalized SEIR-type mechanistic structure that includes time-dependent transmission rate, asymptomatics, and hospitalizations. A minimization problem with two cost terms (number of hospitalizations and deaths) is formulated, and twelve parameters are identified. The calibrated model provides a consistent description of the available data, able to extrapolate forecasts over a few weeks, which makes the proposed methodology very appealing for use in the context of real-time epidemic modeling.

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There has been a growing interest in Machine Unlearning recently, primarily due to legal requirements such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) and the California Consumer Privacy Act. Thus, multiple approaches were presented to remove the influence of specific target data points from a trained model. However, when evaluating the success of unlearning, current approaches either use adversarial attacks or compare their results to the optimal solution, which usually incorporates retraining from scratch. We argue that both ways are insufficient in practice. In this work, we present an evaluation metric for Machine Unlearning algorithms based on epistemic uncertainty. This is the first definition of a general evaluation metric for Machine Unlearning to our best knowledge.

Complex systems are ubiquitous in the real world and tend to have complicated and poorly understood dynamics. For their control issues, the challenge is to guarantee accuracy, robustness, and generalization in such bloated and troubled environments. Fortunately, a complex system can be divided into multiple modular structures that human cognition appears to exploit. Inspired by this cognition, a novel control method, Causal Coupled Mechanisms (CCMs), is proposed that explores the cooperation in division and competition in combination. Our method employs the theory of hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), in which 1) the high-level policy with competitive awareness divides the whole complex system into multiple functional mechanisms, and 2) the low-level policy finishes the control task of each mechanism. Specifically for cooperation, a cascade control module helps the series operation of CCMs, and a forward coupled reasoning module is used to recover the coupling information lost in the division process. On both synthetic systems and a real-world biological regulatory system, the CCM method achieves robust and state-of-the-art control results even with unpredictable random noise. Moreover, generalization results show that reusing prepared specialized CCMs helps to perform well in environments with different confounders and dynamics.

The parameters of the log-logistic distribution are generally estimated based on classical methods such as maximum likelihood estimation, whereas these methods usually result in severe biased estimates when the data contain outliers. In this paper, we consider several alternative estimators, which not only have closed-form expressions, but also are quite robust to a certain level of data contamination. We investigate the robustness property of each estimator in terms of the breakdown point. The finite sample performance and effectiveness of these estimators are evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations and a real-data application. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed estimators perform favorably in a manner that they are comparable with the maximum likelihood estimator for the data without contamination and that they provide superior performance in the presence of data contamination.

Model mismatches prevail in real-world applications. Hence it is important to design robust safe control algorithms for systems with uncertain dynamic models. The major challenge is that uncertainty results in difficulty in finding a feasible safe control in real-time. Existing methods usually simplify the problem such as restricting uncertainty type, ignoring control limits, or forgoing feasibility guarantees. In this work, we overcome these issues by proposing a robust safe control framework for bounded state-dependent uncertainties. We first guarantee the feasibility of safe control for uncertain dynamics by learning a control-limits-aware, uncertainty-robust safety index. Then we show that robust safe control can be formulated as convex problems (Convex Semi-Infinite Programming or Second-Order Cone Programming) and propose corresponding optimal solvers that can run in real-time. In addition, we analyze when and how safety can be preserved under unmodeled uncertainties. Experiment results show that our method successfully finds robust safe control in real-time for different uncertainties and is much less conservative than a strong baseline algorithm.

Visual place recognition techniques based on deep learning, which have imposed themselves as the state-of-the-art in recent years, do not generalize well to environments visually different from the training set. Thus, to achieve top performance, it is sometimes necessary to fine-tune the networks to the target environment. To this end, we propose a self-supervised domain calibration procedure based on robust pose graph optimization from Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) as the supervision signal without requiring GPS or manual labeling. Moreover, we leverage the procedure to improve uncertainty estimation for place recognition matches which is important in safety critical applications. We show that our approach can improve the performance of a state-of-the-art technique on a target environment dissimilar from its training set and that we can obtain uncertainty estimates. We believe that this approach will help practitioners to deploy robust place recognition solutions in real-world applications. Our code is available publicly: //github.com/MISTLab/vpr-calibration-and-uncertainty

Due to their increasing spread, confidence in neural network predictions became more and more important. However, basic neural networks do not deliver certainty estimates or suffer from over or under confidence. Many researchers have been working on understanding and quantifying uncertainty in a neural network's prediction. As a result, different types and sources of uncertainty have been identified and a variety of approaches to measure and quantify uncertainty in neural networks have been proposed. This work gives a comprehensive overview of uncertainty estimation in neural networks, reviews recent advances in the field, highlights current challenges, and identifies potential research opportunities. It is intended to give anyone interested in uncertainty estimation in neural networks a broad overview and introduction, without presupposing prior knowledge in this field. A comprehensive introduction to the most crucial sources of uncertainty is given and their separation into reducible model uncertainty and not reducible data uncertainty is presented. The modeling of these uncertainties based on deterministic neural networks, Bayesian neural networks, ensemble of neural networks, and test-time data augmentation approaches is introduced and different branches of these fields as well as the latest developments are discussed. For a practical application, we discuss different measures of uncertainty, approaches for the calibration of neural networks and give an overview of existing baselines and implementations. Different examples from the wide spectrum of challenges in different fields give an idea of the needs and challenges regarding uncertainties in practical applications. Additionally, the practical limitations of current methods for mission- and safety-critical real world applications are discussed and an outlook on the next steps towards a broader usage of such methods is given.

Ensembles over neural network weights trained from different random initialization, known as deep ensembles, achieve state-of-the-art accuracy and calibration. The recently introduced batch ensembles provide a drop-in replacement that is more parameter efficient. In this paper, we design ensembles not only over weights, but over hyperparameters to improve the state of the art in both settings. For best performance independent of budget, we propose hyper-deep ensembles, a simple procedure that involves a random search over different hyperparameters, themselves stratified across multiple random initializations. Its strong performance highlights the benefit of combining models with both weight and hyperparameter diversity. We further propose a parameter efficient version, hyper-batch ensembles, which builds on the layer structure of batch ensembles and self-tuning networks. The computational and memory costs of our method are notably lower than typical ensembles. On image classification tasks, with MLP, LeNet, and Wide ResNet 28-10 architectures, our methodology improves upon both deep and batch ensembles.

The notion of uncertainty is of major importance in machine learning and constitutes a key element of machine learning methodology. In line with the statistical tradition, uncertainty has long been perceived as almost synonymous with standard probability and probabilistic predictions. Yet, due to the steadily increasing relevance of machine learning for practical applications and related issues such as safety requirements, new problems and challenges have recently been identified by machine learning scholars, and these problems may call for new methodological developments. In particular, this includes the importance of distinguishing between (at least) two different types of uncertainty, often refereed to as aleatoric and epistemic. In this paper, we provide an introduction to the topic of uncertainty in machine learning as well as an overview of hitherto attempts at handling uncertainty in general and formalizing this distinction in particular.

Pre-trained deep neural network language models such as ELMo, GPT, BERT and XLNet have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on a variety of language understanding tasks. However, their size makes them impractical for a number of scenarios, especially on mobile and edge devices. In particular, the input word embedding matrix accounts for a significant proportion of the model's memory footprint, due to the large input vocabulary and embedding dimensions. Knowledge distillation techniques have had success at compressing large neural network models, but they are ineffective at yielding student models with vocabularies different from the original teacher models. We introduce a novel knowledge distillation technique for training a student model with a significantly smaller vocabulary as well as lower embedding and hidden state dimensions. Specifically, we employ a dual-training mechanism that trains the teacher and student models simultaneously to obtain optimal word embeddings for the student vocabulary. We combine this approach with learning shared projection matrices that transfer layer-wise knowledge from the teacher model to the student model. Our method is able to compress the BERT_BASE model by more than 60x, with only a minor drop in downstream task metrics, resulting in a language model with a footprint of under 7MB. Experimental results also demonstrate higher compression efficiency and accuracy when compared with other state-of-the-art compression techniques.

Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.

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