We propose a novel combinatorial inference framework to conduct general uncertainty quantification in ranking problems. We consider the widely adopted Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, where each item is assigned a positive preference score that determines the Bernoulli distributions of pairwise comparisons' outcomes. Our proposed method aims to infer general ranking properties of the BTL model. The general ranking properties include the "local" properties such as if an item is preferred over another and the "global" properties such as if an item is among the top $K$-ranked items. We further generalize our inferential framework to multiple testing problems where we control the false discovery rate (FDR), and apply the method to infer the top-$K$ ranked items. We also derive the information-theoretic lower bound to justify the minimax optimality of the proposed method. We conduct extensive numerical studies using both synthetic and real datasets to back up our theory.
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Machine learning (ML) models need to be frequently retrained on changing datasets in a wide variety of application scenarios, including data valuation and uncertainty quantification. To efficiently retrain the model, linear approximation methods such as influence function have been proposed to estimate the impact of data changes on model parameters. However, these methods become inaccurate for large dataset changes. In this work, we focus on convex learning problems and propose a general framework to learn to estimate optimized model parameters for different training sets using neural networks. We propose to enforce the predicted model parameters to obey optimality conditions and maintain utility through regularization techniques, which significantly improve generalization. Moreover, we rigorously characterize the expressive power of neural networks to approximate the optimizer of convex problems. Empirical results demonstrate the advantage of the proposed method in accurate and efficient model parameter estimation compared to the state-of-the-art.
Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends to show an overestimation, and so the selective inference conditions the event that the model was selected. In this paper, we develop selective inference in propensity score analysis with a semiparametric approach, which has become a standard tool in causal inference. Specifically, for the most basic causal inference model in which the causal effect can be written as a linear sum of confounding variables, we conduct Lasso-type variable selection by adding an $\ell_1$ penalty term to the loss function that gives a semiparametric estimator. Confidence intervals are then given for the coefficients of the selected confounding variables, conditional on the event of variable selection, with asymptotic guarantees. An important property of this method is that it does not require modeling of nonparametric regression functions for the outcome variables, as is usually the case with semiparametric propensity score analysis.
Pairwise learning refers to learning tasks where the loss function depends on a pair of instances. It instantiates many important machine learning tasks such as bipartite ranking and metric learning. A popular approach to handle streaming data in pairwise learning is an online gradient descent (OGD) algorithm, where one needs to pair the current instance with a buffering set of previous instances with a sufficiently large size and therefore suffers from a scalability issue. In this paper, we propose simple stochastic and online gradient descent methods for pairwise learning. A notable difference from the existing studies is that we only pair the current instance with the previous one in building a gradient direction, which is efficient in both the storage and computational complexity. We develop novel stability results, optimization, and generalization error bounds for both convex and nonconvex as well as both smooth and nonsmooth problems. We introduce novel techniques to decouple the dependency of models and the previous instance in both the optimization and generalization analysis. Our study resolves an open question on developing meaningful generalization bounds for OGD using a buffering set with a very small fixed size. We also extend our algorithms and stability analysis to develop differentially private SGD algorithms for pairwise learning which significantly improves the existing results.
Motivated by the recent work [He-Yuan, Balanced Augmented Lagrangian Method for Convex Programming, arXiv: 2108.08554v1, (2021)], a novel Augmented Lagrangian Method (ALM) has been proposed for solving a family of convex optimization problem subject to equality or inequality constraint. This new method is then extended to solve the multi-block separable convex optimization problem, and two related primal-dual hybrid gradient algorithms are also discussed. Preliminary and some new convergence results are established with the aid of variational analysis for both the saddle point of the problem and the first-order optimality conditions of involved subproblems.
Modern online advertising systems inevitably rely on personalization methods, such as click-through rate (CTR) prediction. Recent progress in CTR prediction enjoys the rich representation capabilities of deep learning and achieves great success in large-scale industrial applications. However, these methods can suffer from lack of exploration. Another line of prior work addresses the exploration-exploitation trade-off problem with contextual bandit methods, which are less studied in the industry recently due to the difficulty in extending their flexibility with deep models. In this paper, we propose a novel Deep Uncertainty-Aware Learning (DUAL) method to learn deep CTR models based on Gaussian processes, which can provide efficient uncertainty estimations along with the CTR predictions while maintaining the flexibility of deep neural networks. By linking the ability to estimate predictive uncertainties of DUAL to well-known bandit algorithms, we further present DUAL-based Ad-ranking strategies to boost up long-term utilities such as the social welfare in advertising systems. Experimental results on several public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our methods. Remarkably, an online A/B test deployed in the Alibaba display advertising platform shows an $8.2\%$ social welfare improvement and an $8.0\%$ revenue lift.
To drive purchase in online advertising, it is of the advertiser's great interest to optimize the sequential advertising strategy whose performance and interpretability are both important. The lack of interpretability in existing deep reinforcement learning methods makes it not easy to understand, diagnose and further optimize the strategy. In this paper, we propose our Deep Intents Sequential Advertising (DISA) method to address these issues. The key part of interpretability is to understand a consumer's purchase intent which is, however, unobservable (called hidden states). In this paper, we model this intention as a latent variable and formulate the problem as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) where the underlying intents are inferred based on the observable behaviors. Large-scale industrial offline and online experiments demonstrate our method's superior performance over several baselines. The inferred hidden states are analyzed, and the results prove the rationality of our inference.
Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) is a widely used tool for machine learning in distributed settings, where a machine learning model is trained over distributed data sources through an interactive process of local computation and message passing. Such an iterative process could cause privacy concerns of data owners. The goal of this paper is to provide differential privacy for ADMM-based distributed machine learning. Prior approaches on differentially private ADMM exhibit low utility under high privacy guarantee and often assume the objective functions of the learning problems to be smooth and strongly convex. To address these concerns, we propose a novel differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithm called DP-ADMM, which combines an approximate augmented Lagrangian function with time-varying Gaussian noise addition in the iterative process to achieve higher utility for general objective functions under the same differential privacy guarantee. We also apply the moments accountant method to bound the end-to-end privacy loss. The theoretical analysis shows that DP-ADMM can be applied to a wider class of distributed learning problems, is provably convergent, and offers an explicit utility-privacy tradeoff. To our knowledge, this is the first paper to provide explicit convergence and utility properties for differentially private ADMM-based distributed learning algorithms. The evaluation results demonstrate that our approach can achieve good convergence and model accuracy under high end-to-end differential privacy guarantee.
The slate recommendation problem aims to find the "optimal" ordering of a subset of documents to be presented on a surface that we call "slate". The definition of "optimal" changes depending on the underlying applications but a typical goal is to maximize user engagement with the slate. Solving this problem at scale is hard due to the combinatorial explosion of documents to show and their display positions on the slate. In this paper, we introduce Slate Conditional Variational Auto-Encoders (Slate-CVAE) to generate optimal slates. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first conditional generative model that provides a unified framework for slate recommendation by direct generation. Slate-CVAE automatically takes into account the format of the slate and any biases that the representation causes, thus truly proposing the optimal slate. Additionally, to deal with large corpora of documents, we present a novel approach that uses pretrained document embeddings combined with a soft-nearest-neighbors layer within our CVAE model. Experiments show that on the simulated and real-world datasets, Slate-CVAE outperforms recommender systems that consists of greedily ranking documents by a significant margin while remaining scalable.
In this paper, we propose a listwise approach for constructing user-specific rankings in recommendation systems in a collaborative fashion. We contrast the listwise approach to previous pointwise and pairwise approaches, which are based on treating either each rating or each pairwise comparison as an independent instance respectively. By extending the work of (Cao et al. 2007), we cast listwise collaborative ranking as maximum likelihood under a permutation model which applies probability mass to permutations based on a low rank latent score matrix. We present a novel algorithm called SQL-Rank, which can accommodate ties and missing data and can run in linear time. We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing listwise ranking methods based on a novel representation theory for the permutation model. Applying this framework to collaborative ranking, we derive asymptotic statistical rates as the number of users and items grow together. We conclude by demonstrating that our SQL-Rank method often outperforms current state-of-the-art algorithms for implicit feedback such as Weighted-MF and BPR and achieve favorable results when compared to explicit feedback algorithms such as matrix factorization and collaborative ranking.
In this paper, we study the optimal convergence rate for distributed convex optimization problems in networks. We model the communication restrictions imposed by the network as a set of affine constraints and provide optimal complexity bounds for four different setups, namely: the function $F(\xb) \triangleq \sum_{i=1}^{m}f_i(\xb)$ is strongly convex and smooth, either strongly convex or smooth or just convex. Our results show that Nesterov's accelerated gradient descent on the dual problem can be executed in a distributed manner and obtains the same optimal rates as in the centralized version of the problem (up to constant or logarithmic factors) with an additional cost related to the spectral gap of the interaction matrix. Finally, we discuss some extensions to the proposed setup such as proximal friendly functions, time-varying graphs, improvement of the condition numbers.
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