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The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of statistical uncertainty, with the parameter of interest being known precisely given the entire population. We argue that the foundation of Bayesian inference is to assign a distribution on missing observations conditional on what has been observed. In the conditionally i.i.d. setting with an observed sample of size $n$, the Bayesian would thus assign a predictive distribution on the missing $Y_{n+1:\infty}$ conditional on $Y_{1:n}$, which then induces a distribution on the parameter. Demonstrating an application of martingales, Doob shows that choosing the Bayesian predictive distribution returns the conventional posterior as the distribution of the parameter. Taking this as our cue, we relax the predictive machine, avoiding the need for the predictive to be derived solely from the usual prior to posterior to predictive density formula. We introduce the \textit{martingale posterior distribution}, which returns Bayesian uncertainty directly on any statistic of interest without the need for the likelihood and prior, and this distribution can be sampled through a computational scheme we name \textit{predictive resampling}. To that end, we introduce new predictive methodologies for multivariate density estimation, regression and classification that build upon recent work on bivariate copulas.

Order statistics play a fundamental role in statistical procedures such as risk estimation, outlier detection, and multiple hypothesis testing as well as in the analyses of mechanism design, queues, load balancing, and various other logistical processes involving ranks. In some of these cases, it may be desirable to compute the \textit{exact} values from the joint distribution of $d$ order statistics. While this problem is already computationally difficult even in the case of $n$ independent random variables, the random variables often have no such independence guarantees. Existing methods obtain the cumulative distribution indirectly by first computing and then aggregating over the marginal distributions. In this paper, we provide a more direct, efficient algorithm to compute cumulative joint order statistic distributions of dependent random variables that improves an existing dynamic programming solution via dimensionality reduction techniques. Our solution guarantees a $O(\frac{d^{d-1}}{n})$ and $O(d^{d})$ factor of improvement in both time and space complexity respectively over previous methods.

Moving beyond testing on in-distribution data works on Out-of-Distribution (OOD) detection have recently increased in popularity. A recent attempt to categorize OOD data introduces the concept of near and far OOD detection. Specifically, prior works define characteristics of OOD data in terms of detection difficulty. We propose to characterize the spectrum of OOD data using two types of distribution shifts: covariate shift and concept shift, where covariate shift corresponds to change in style, e.g., noise, and concept shift indicates a change in semantics. This characterization reveals that sensitivity to each type of shift is important to the detection and confidence calibration of OOD data. Consequently, we investigate score functions that capture sensitivity to each type of dataset shift and methods that improve them. To this end, we theoretically derive two score functions for OOD detection, the covariate shift score and concept shift score, based on the decomposition of KL-divergence for both scores, and propose a geometrically-inspired method (Geometric ODIN) to improve OOD detection under both shifts with only in-distribution data. Additionally, the proposed method naturally leads to an expressive post-hoc calibration function which yields state-of-the-art calibration performance on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data. We are the first to propose a method that works well across both OOD detection and calibration and under different types of shifts. View project page at //sites.google.com/view/geometric-decomposition.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are proved to be vulnerable against backdoor attacks. A backdoor is often embedded in the target DNNs through injecting a backdoor trigger into training examples, which can cause the target DNNs misclassify an input attached with the backdoor trigger. Existing backdoor detection methods often require the access to the original poisoned training data, the parameters of the target DNNs, or the predictive confidence for each given input, which are impractical in many real-world applications, e.g., on-device deployed DNNs. We address the black-box hard-label backdoor detection problem where the DNN is fully black-box and only its final output label is accessible. We approach this problem from the optimization perspective and show that the objective of backdoor detection is bounded by an adversarial objective. Further theoretical and empirical studies reveal that this adversarial objective leads to a solution with highly skewed distribution; a singularity is often observed in the adversarial map of a backdoor-infected example, which we call the adversarial singularity phenomenon. Based on this observation, we propose the adversarial extreme value analysis(AEVA) to detect backdoors in black-box neural networks. AEVA is based on an extreme value analysis of the adversarial map, computed from the monte-carlo gradient estimation. Evidenced by extensive experiments across multiple popular tasks and backdoor attacks, our approach is shown effective in detecting backdoor attacks under the black-box hard-label scenarios.

The field of quantum information is becoming more known to the general public. However, effectively demonstrating the concepts underneath quantum science and technology to the general public can be a challenging job. We investigate, extend, and greatly expand here "quantum candies" (invented by Jacobs), a pedagogical model for intuitively describing some basic concepts in quantum information, including quantum bits, complementarity, the no-cloning principle, and entanglement. Following Jacob's quantum candies description of the well-known quantum key distribution protocol BB84, we explicitly demonstrate additional quantum cryptography protocols and quantum communication protocols, using generalized quantum candies (including correlated pairs of qandies). These demonstrations are done in an approachable manner, that can be explained to high-school students, without using the hard-to-grasp concept of superpositions and its mathematics. The intuitive model we investigate has a fascinating overlap with some of the most basic features of quantum theory. Hence, it can be a valuable tool for science and engineering educators who would like to help the general public to gain more insights into quantum science and technology. For the experts, the model we present, due to not employing quantum superpositions, enables - in some sense - extending far beyond quantum theory. Most remarkably, "quantum" candies of some unique type can be defined, such that non-local boxes (of the Popescu-Rohrlich type) as well as regular (correlated) quantum candies can be generated by a single `"quantum" candies machine.

A design framework recently has been developed to stabilize interconnected multiagent systems in a distributed manner, and systematically capture the architectural aspect of cyber-physical systems. Such a control theoretic framework, however, results in a stabilization protocol which is passive with respect to the cyber attacks and conservative regarding the guaranteed level of resiliency. We treat the control layer topology and stabilization gains as the degrees of freedom, and develop a mixed control and cybersecurity design framework to address the above concerns. From a control perspective, despite the agent layer modeling uncertainties and perturbations, we propose a new step-by-step procedure to design a set of control sublayers for an arbitrarily fast switching of the control layer topology. From a proactive cyber defense perspective, we propose a satisfiability modulo theory formulation to obtain a set of control sublayer structures with security considerations, and offer a frequent and fast mutation of these sublayers such that the control layer topology will remain unpredictable for the adversaries. We prove the robust input-to-state stability of the two-layer interconnected multiagent system, and validate the proposed ideas in simulation.

The ultimate random number generators are those certified to be unpredictable -- including to an adversary. The use of simple quantum processes promises to provide numbers that no physical observer could predict but, in practice, unwanted noise and imperfect devices can compromise fundamental randomness and protocol security. Certified randomness protocols have been developed which remove the need for trust in devices by taking advantage of nonlocality. Here, we use a photonic platform to implement our protocol, which operates in the quantum steering scenario where one can certify randomness in a one-sided device independent framework. We demonstrate an approach for a steering-based generator of public or private randomness, and the first generation of certified random bits, with the detection loophole closed, in the steering scenario.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is critical to ensuring the reliability and safety of machine learning systems. For instance, in autonomous driving, we would like the driving system to issue an alert and hand over the control to humans when it detects unusual scenes or objects that it has never seen before and cannot make a safe decision. This problem first emerged in 2017 and since then has received increasing attention from the research community, leading to a plethora of methods developed, ranging from classification-based to density-based to distance-based ones. Meanwhile, several other problems are closely related to OOD detection in terms of motivation and methodology. These include anomaly detection (AD), novelty detection (ND), open set recognition (OSR), and outlier detection (OD). Despite having different definitions and problem settings, these problems often confuse readers and practitioners, and as a result, some existing studies misuse terms. In this survey, we first present a generic framework called generalized OOD detection, which encompasses the five aforementioned problems, i.e., AD, ND, OSR, OOD detection, and OD. Under our framework, these five problems can be seen as special cases or sub-tasks, and are easier to distinguish. Then, we conduct a thorough review of each of the five areas by summarizing their recent technical developments. We conclude this survey with open challenges and potential research directions.

Network embedding aims to learn a latent, low-dimensional vector representations of network nodes, effective in supporting various network analytic tasks. While prior arts on network embedding focus primarily on preserving network topology structure to learn node representations, recently proposed attributed network embedding algorithms attempt to integrate rich node content information with network topological structure for enhancing the quality of network embedding. In reality, networks often have sparse content, incomplete node attributes, as well as the discrepancy between node attribute feature space and network structure space, which severely deteriorates the performance of existing methods. In this paper, we propose a unified framework for attributed network embedding-attri2vec-that learns node embeddings by discovering a latent node attribute subspace via a network structure guided transformation performed on the original attribute space. The resultant latent subspace can respect network structure in a more consistent way towards learning high-quality node representations. We formulate an optimization problem which is solved by an efficient stochastic gradient descent algorithm, with linear time complexity to the number of nodes. We investigate a series of linear and non-linear transformations performed on node attributes and empirically validate their effectiveness on various types of networks. Another advantage of attri2vec is its ability to solve out-of-sample problems, where embeddings of new coming nodes can be inferred from their node attributes through the learned mapping function. Experiments on various types of networks confirm that attri2vec is superior to state-of-the-art baselines for node classification, node clustering, as well as out-of-sample link prediction tasks. The source code of this paper is available at //github.com/daokunzhang/attri2vec.