The shocks which hit macroeconomic models such as Vector Autoregressions (VARs) have the potential to be non-Gaussian, exhibiting asymmetries and fat tails. This consideration motivates the VAR developed in this paper which uses a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) to model the shocks. However, we do not follow the obvious strategy of simply modeling the VAR errors with a DPM since this would lead to computationally infeasible Bayesian inference in larger VARs and potentially a sensitivity to the way the variables are ordered in the VAR. Instead we develop a particular additive error structure inspired by Bayesian nonparametric treatments of random effects in panel data models. We show that this leads to a model which allows for computationally fast and order-invariant inference in large VARs with nonparametric shocks. Our empirical results with nonparametric VARs of various dimensions shows that nonparametric treatment of the VAR errors is particularly useful in periods such as the financial crisis and the pandemic.
Man-at-the-end (MATE) attackers have full control over the system on which the attacked software runs, and try to break the confidentiality or integrity of assets embedded in the software. Both companies and malware authors want to prevent such attacks. This has driven an arms race between attackers and defenders, resulting in a plethora of different protection and analysis methods. However, it remains difficult to measure the strength of protections because MATE attackers can reach their goals in many different ways and a universally accepted evaluation methodology does not exist. This survey systematically reviews the evaluation methodologies of papers on obfuscation, a major class of protections against MATE attacks. For 572 papers, we collected 113 aspects of their evaluation methodologies, ranging from sample set types and sizes, over sample treatment, to performed measurements. We provide detailed insights into how the academic state of the art evaluates both the protections and analyses thereon. In summary, there is a clear need for better evaluation methodologies. We identify nine challenges for software protection evaluations, which represent threats to the validity, reproducibility, and interpretation of research results in the context of MATE attacks.
We introduce a physics-driven deep latent variable model (PDDLVM) to learn simultaneously parameter-to-solution (forward) and solution-to-parameter (inverse) maps of parametric partial differential equations (PDEs). Our formulation leverages conventional PDE discretization techniques, deep neural networks, probabilistic modelling, and variational inference to assemble a fully probabilistic coherent framework. In the posited probabilistic model, both the forward and inverse maps are approximated as Gaussian distributions with a mean and covariance parameterized by deep neural networks. The PDE residual is assumed to be an observed random vector of value zero, hence we model it as a random vector with a zero mean and a user-prescribed covariance. The model is trained by maximizing the probability, that is the evidence or marginal likelihood, of observing a residual of zero by maximizing the evidence lower bound (ELBO). Consequently, the proposed methodology does not require any independent PDE solves and is physics-informed at training time, allowing the real-time solution of PDE forward and inverse problems after training. The proposed framework can be easily extended to seamlessly integrate observed data to solve inverse problems and to build generative models. We demonstrate the efficiency and robustness of our method on finite element discretized parametric PDE problems such as linear and nonlinear Poisson problems, elastic shells with complex 3D geometries, and time-dependent nonlinear and inhomogeneous PDEs using a physics-informed neural network (PINN) discretization. We achieve up to three orders of magnitude speed-up after training compared to traditional finite element method (FEM), while outputting coherent uncertainty estimates.
Mixtures of factor analysers (MFA) models represent a popular tool for finding structure in data, particularly high-dimensional data. While in most applications the number of clusters, and especially the number of latent factors within clusters, is mostly fixed in advance, in the recent literature models with automatic inference on both the number of clusters and latent factors have been introduced. The automatic inference is usually done by assigning a nonparametric prior and allowing the number of clusters and factors to potentially go to infinity. The MCMC estimation is performed via an adaptive algorithm, in which the parameters associated with the redundant factors are discarded as the chain moves. While this approach has clear advantages, it also bears some significant drawbacks. Running a separate factor-analytical model for each cluster involves matrices of changing dimensions, which can make the model and programming somewhat cumbersome. In addition, discarding the parameters associated with the redundant factors could lead to a bias in estimating cluster covariance matrices. At last, identification remains problematic for infinite factor models. The current work contributes to the MFA literature by providing for the automatic inference on the number of clusters and the number of cluster-specific factors while keeping both cluster and factor dimensions finite. This allows us to avoid many of the aforementioned drawbacks of the infinite models. For the automatic inference on the cluster structure, we employ the dynamic mixture of finite mixtures (MFM) model. Automatic inference on cluster-specific factors is performed by assigning an exchangeable shrinkage process (ESP) prior to the columns of the factor loading matrices. The performance of the model is demonstrated on several benchmark data sets as well as real data applications.
Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled approach for assessing the relative merits of competing computational models and propagating uncertainty into model selection decisions. However, BMC is often intractable for the popular class of hierarchical models due to their high-dimensional nested parameter structure. To address this intractability, we propose a deep learning method for performing BMC on any set of hierarchical models which can be instantiated as probabilistic programs. Since our method enables amortized inference, it allows efficient re-estimation of posterior model probabilities and fast performance validation prior to any real-data application. In a series of extensive validation studies, we benchmark the performance of our method against the state-of-the-art bridge sampling method and demonstrate excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings. We then showcase our method by comparing four hierarchical evidence accumulation models that have previously been deemed intractable for BMC due to partly implicit likelihoods. In this application, we corroborate evidence for the recently proposed L\'evy flight model of decision-making and show how transfer learning can be leveraged to enhance training efficiency. We provide reproducible code for all analyses and an open-source implementation of our method.
Parametricity is a property of the syntax of type theory implying e.g. that there is only one function having the type of the polymorphic identity function. Parametricity is usually proven externally, and does not hold internally. Internalising it is difficult because once there is a term witnessing parametricity, it also has to be parametric itself and this results in the appearance of higher dimensional cubes. In previous theories with internal parametricity, either an explicit syntax for higher cubes is present or the theory is extended with a new sort for the interval. In this paper we present a type theory with internal parametricity which is a simple extension of Martin-L\"of type thoery: there are a few new type formers, term formers and equations. Geometry is not explicit in this syntax, but emergent: the new operations and equations only refer to objects up to dimension 3. We show that this theory is modelled by presheaves over the BCH cube category. Fibrancy conditions are not needed because we use span-based rather than relational parametricity. We define a gluing model for this theory implying that external parametricity and canonicity hold. The theory can be seen as a special case of a new kind of modal type theory, and it is the simplest setting in which the computational properties of higher observational type theory can be demonstrated.
For predictive modeling relying on Bayesian inversion, fully independent, or ``mean-field'', Gaussian distributions are often used as approximate probability density functions in variational inference since the number of variational parameters is twice the number of unknown model parameters. The resulting diagonal covariance structure coupled with unimodal behavior can be too restrictive when dealing with highly non-Gaussian behavior, including multimodality. High-fidelity surrogate posteriors in the form of Gaussian mixtures can capture any distribution to an arbitrary degree of accuracy while maintaining some analytical tractability. Variational inference with Gaussian mixtures with full-covariance structures suffers from a quadratic growth in variational parameters with the number of model parameters. Coupled with the existence of multiple local minima due to nonconvex trends in the loss functions often associated with variational inference, these challenges motivate the need for robust initialization procedures to improve the performance and scalability of variational inference with mixture models. In this work, we propose a method for constructing an initial Gaussian mixture model approximation that can be used to warm-start the iterative solvers for variational inference. The procedure begins with an optimization stage in model parameter space in which local gradient-based optimization, globalized through multistart, is used to determine a set of local maxima, which we take to approximate the mixture component centers. Around each mode, a local Gaussian approximation is constructed via the Laplace method. Finally, the mixture weights are determined through constrained least squares regression. Robustness and scalability are demonstrated using synthetic tests. The methodology is applied to an inversion problem in structural dynamics involving unknown viscous damping coefficients.
Gaussian Process Networks (GPNs) are a class of directed graphical models which employ Gaussian processes as priors for the conditional expectation of each variable given its parents in the network. The model allows describing continuous joint distributions in a compact but flexible manner with minimal parametric assumptions on the dependencies between variables. Bayesian structure learning of GPNs requires computing the posterior over graphs of the network and is computationally infeasible even in low dimensions. This work implements Monte Carlo and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to sample from the posterior distribution of network structures. As such, the approach follows the Bayesian paradigm, comparing models via their marginal likelihood and computing the posterior probability of the GPN features. Simulation studies show that our method outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in recovering the graphical structure of the network and provides an accurate approximation of its posterior distribution.
For smooth optimization problems with a Hermitian positive semi-definite fixed-rank constraint, we consider three existing approaches including the simple Burer--Monteiro method, and Riemannian optimization over quotient geometry and the embedded geometry. These three methods can be all represented via quotient geometry with three Riemannian metrics $g^i(\cdot, \cdot)$ $(i=1,2,3)$. By taking the nonlinear conjugate gradient method (CG) as an example, we show that CG in the factor-based Burer--Monteiro approach is equivalent to Riemannian CG on the quotient geometry with the Bures-Wasserstein metric $g^1$. Riemannian CG on the quotient geometry with the metric $g^3$ is equivalent to Riemannian CG on the embedded geometry. For comparing the three approaches, we analyze the condition number of the Riemannian Hessian near the minimizer under the three different metrics. Under certain assumptions, the condition number from the Bures-Wasserstein metric $g^1$ is significantly different from the other two metrics. Numerical experiments show that the Burer--Monteiro CG method has obviously slower asymptotic convergence rate when the minimizer is rank deficient, which is consistent with the condition number analysis.
We consider the classic 1-center problem: Given a set $P$ of $n$ points in a metric space find the point in $P$ that minimizes the maximum distance to the other points of $P$. We study the complexity of this problem in $d$-dimensional $\ell_p$-metrics and in edit and Ulam metrics over strings of length $d$. Our results for the 1-center problem may be classified based on $d$ as follows. $\bullet$ Small $d$: Assuming the hitting set conjecture (HSC), we show that when $d=\omega(\log n)$, no subquadratic algorithm can solve 1-center problem in any of the $\ell_p$-metrics, or in edit or Ulam metrics. $\bullet$ Large $d$: When $d=\Omega(n)$, we extend our conditional lower bound to rule out subquartic algorithms for 1-center problem in edit metric (assuming Quantified SETH). On the other hand, we give a $(1+\epsilon)$-approximation for 1-center in Ulam metric with running time $\tilde{O_{\varepsilon}}(nd+n^2\sqrt{d})$. We also strengthen some of the above lower bounds by allowing approximations or by reducing the dimension $d$, but only against a weaker class of algorithms which list all requisite solutions. Moreover, we extend one of our hardness results to rule out subquartic algorithms for the well-studied 1-median problem in the edit metric, where given a set of $n$ strings each of length $n$, the goal is to find a string in the set that minimizes the sum of the edit distances to the rest of the strings in the set.
Adversarial attack is a technique for deceiving Machine Learning (ML) models, which provides a way to evaluate the adversarial robustness. In practice, attack algorithms are artificially selected and tuned by human experts to break a ML system. However, manual selection of attackers tends to be sub-optimal, leading to a mistakenly assessment of model security. In this paper, a new procedure called Composite Adversarial Attack (CAA) is proposed for automatically searching the best combination of attack algorithms and their hyper-parameters from a candidate pool of \textbf{32 base attackers}. We design a search space where attack policy is represented as an attacking sequence, i.e., the output of the previous attacker is used as the initialization input for successors. Multi-objective NSGA-II genetic algorithm is adopted for finding the strongest attack policy with minimum complexity. The experimental result shows CAA beats 10 top attackers on 11 diverse defenses with less elapsed time (\textbf{6 $\times$ faster than AutoAttack}), and achieves the new state-of-the-art on $l_{\infty}$, $l_{2}$ and unrestricted adversarial attacks.