The development of automated vehicles has the potential to revolutionize transportation, but they are currently unable to ensure a safe and time-efficient driving style. Reliable models predicting human behavior are essential for overcoming this issue. While data-driven models are commonly used to this end, they can be vulnerable in safety-critical edge cases. This has led to an interest in models incorporating cognitive theory, but as such models are commonly developed for explanatory purposes, this approach's effectiveness in behavior prediction has remained largely untested so far. In this article, we investigate the usefulness of the \emph{Commotions} model -- a novel cognitively plausible model incorporating the latest theories of human perception, decision-making, and motor control -- for predicting human behavior in gap acceptance scenarios, which entail many important traffic interactions such as lane changes and intersections. We show that this model can compete with or even outperform well-established data-driven prediction models across several naturalistic datasets. These results demonstrate the promise of incorporating cognitive theory in behavior prediction models for automated vehicles.
相關內容
ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
官網鏈接： ·
MoDELS
·
變換
·
Performer
·
Learning
·
Deep learning (DL) models for spatio-temporal traffic flow forecasting employ convolutional or graph-convolutional filters along with recurrent neural networks to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in traffic data. These models, such as CNN-LSTM, utilize traffic flows from neighboring detector stations to predict flows at a specific location of interest. However, these models are limited in their ability to capture the broader dynamics of the traffic system, as they primarily learn features specific to the detector configuration and traffic characteristics at the target location. Hence, the transferability of these models to different locations becomes challenging, particularly when data is unavailable at the new location for model training. To address this limitation, we propose a traffic flow physics-based feature transformation for spatio-temporal DL models. This transformation incorporates Newell's uncongested and congested-state estimators of traffic flows at the target locations, enabling the models to learn broader dynamics of the system. Our methodology is empirically validated using traffic data from two different locations. The results demonstrate that the proposed feature transformation improves the models' performance in predicting traffic flows over different prediction horizons, as indicated by better goodness-of-fit statistics. An important advantage of our framework is its ability to be transferred to new locations where data is unavailable. This is achieved by appropriately accounting for spatial dependencies based on station distances and various traffic parameters. In contrast, regular DL models are not easily transferable as their inputs remain fixed. It should be noted that due to data limitations, we were unable to perform spatial sensitivity analysis, which calls for further research using simulated data.
The heterogeneous, geographically distributed infrastructure of fog computing poses challenges in data replication, data distribution, and data mobility for fog applications. Fog computing is still missing the necessary abstractions to manage application data, and fog application developers need to re-implement data management for every new piece of software. Proposed solutions are limited to certain application domains, such as the IoT, are not flexible in regard to network topology, or do not provide the means for applications to control the movement of their data. In this paper, we present FReD, a data replication middleware for the fog. FReD serves as a building block for configurable fog data distribution and enables low-latency, high-bandwidth, and privacy-sensitive applications. FReD is a common data access interface across heterogeneous infrastructure and network topologies, provides transparent and controllable data distribution, and can be integrated with applications from different domains. To evaluate our approach, we present a prototype implementation of FReD and show the benefits of developing with FReD using three case studies of fog computing applications.
Making data and metadata FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable) has become an important objective in research and industry, and knowledge graphs and ontologies have been cornerstones in many going-FAIR strategies. In this process, however, human-actionability of data and metadata has been lost sight of. Here, in the first part, I discuss two issues exemplifying the lack of human-actionability in knowledge graphs and I suggest adding the Principle of human Explorability to extend FAIR to the FAIREr Guiding Principles. Moreover, in its interoperability framework and as part of its GoingFAIR strategy, the European Open Science Cloud initiative distinguishes between technical, semantic, organizational, and legal interoperability and I argue to add cognitive interoperability. In the second part, I provide a short introduction to semantic units and discuss how they increase the human explorability and cognitive interoperability of knowledge graphs. Semantic units structure a knowledge graph into identifiable and semantically meaningful subgraphs, each represented with its own resource that instantiates a corresponding semantic unit class. Three categories of semantic units can be distinguished: Statement units model individual propositions, compound units are semantically meaningful collections of semantic units, and question units model questions that translate into queries. I conclude with discussing how semantic units provide a framework for the development of innovative user interfaces that support exploring and accessing information in the graph by reducing its complexity to what currently interests the user, thereby significantly increasing the cognitive interoperability and thus human-actionability of knowledge graphs.
This research presents a novel Discrete Event Simulation (DES) of the Lloyd's of London specialty insurance market, exploring complex market dynamics that have not been previously studied quantitatively. The proof-of-concept model allows for the simulation of various scenarios that capture important market phenomena such as the underwriting cycle, the impact of risk syndication, and the importance of appropriate exposure management. Despite minimal calibration, our model has shown that it is a valuable tool for understanding and analysing the Lloyd's of London specialty insurance market, particularly in terms of identifying areas for further investigation for regulators and participants of the market alike. The results generate the expected behaviours that, syndicates (insurers) are less likely to go insolvent if they adopt sophisticated exposure management practices, catastrophe events lead to more defined patterns of cyclicality and cause syndicates to substantially increase their premiums offered. Lastly, syndication enhances the accuracy of actuarial price estimates and narrows the divergence among syndicates. Overall, this research offers a new perspective on the Lloyd's of London market and demonstrates the potential of individual-based modelling (IBM) for understanding complex financial systems.
Artificial intelligence (AI) has become a part of everyday conversation and our lives. It is considered as the new electricity that is revolutionizing the world. AI is heavily invested in both industry and academy. However, there is also a lot of hype in the current AI debate. AI based on so-called deep learning has achieved impressive results in many problems, but its limits are already visible. AI has been under research since the 1940s, and the industry has seen many ups and downs due to over-expectations and related disappointments that have followed. The purpose of this book is to give a realistic picture of AI, its history, its potential and limitations. We believe that AI is a helper, not a ruler of humans. We begin by describing what AI is and how it has evolved over the decades. After fundamentals, we explain the importance of massive data for the current mainstream of artificial intelligence. The most common representations for AI, methods, and machine learning are covered. In addition, the main application areas are introduced. Computer vision has been central to the development of AI. The book provides a general introduction to computer vision, and includes an exposure to the results and applications of our own research. Emotions are central to human intelligence, but little use has been made in AI. We present the basics of emotional intelligence and our own research on the topic. We discuss super-intelligence that transcends human understanding, explaining why such achievement seems impossible on the basis of present knowledge,and how AI could be improved. Finally, a summary is made of the current state of AI and what to do in the future. In the appendix, we look at the development of AI education, especially from the perspective of contents at our own university.
We describe ACE0, a lightweight platform for evaluating the suitability and viability of AI methods for behaviour discovery in multiagent simulations. Specifically, ACE0 was designed to explore AI methods for multi-agent simulations used in operations research studies related to new technologies such as autonomous aircraft. Simulation environments used in production are often high-fidelity, complex, require significant domain knowledge and as a result have high R&D costs. Minimal and lightweight simulation environments can help researchers and engineers evaluate the viability of new AI technologies for behaviour discovery in a more agile and potentially cost effective manner. In this paper we describe the motivation for the development of ACE0.We provide a technical overview of the system architecture, describe a case study of behaviour discovery in the aerospace domain, and provide a qualitative evaluation of the system. The evaluation includes a brief description of collaborative research projects with academic partners, exploring different AI behaviour discovery methods.
Human-in-the-loop aims to train an accurate prediction model with minimum cost by integrating human knowledge and experience. Humans can provide training data for machine learning applications and directly accomplish some tasks that are hard for computers in the pipeline with the help of machine-based approaches. In this paper, we survey existing works on human-in-the-loop from a data perspective and classify them into three categories with a progressive relationship: (1) the work of improving model performance from data processing, (2) the work of improving model performance through interventional model training, and (3) the design of the system independent human-in-the-loop. Using the above categorization, we summarize major approaches in the field, along with their technical strengths/ weaknesses, we have simple classification and discussion in natural language processing, computer vision, and others. Besides, we provide some open challenges and opportunities. This survey intends to provide a high-level summarization for human-in-the-loop and motivates interested readers to consider approaches for designing effective human-in-the-loop solutions.
Imitation learning aims to extract knowledge from human experts' demonstrations or artificially created agents in order to replicate their behaviors. Its success has been demonstrated in areas such as video games, autonomous driving, robotic simulations and object manipulation. However, this replicating process could be problematic, such as the performance is highly dependent on the demonstration quality, and most trained agents are limited to perform well in task-specific environments. In this survey, we provide a systematic review on imitation learning. We first introduce the background knowledge from development history and preliminaries, followed by presenting different taxonomies within Imitation Learning and key milestones of the field. We then detail challenges in learning strategies and present research opportunities with learning policy from suboptimal demonstration, voice instructions and other associated optimization schemes.
Predictions obtained by, e.g., artificial neural networks have a high accuracy but humans often perceive the models as black boxes. Insights about the decision making are mostly opaque for humans. Particularly understanding the decision making in highly sensitive areas such as healthcare or fifinance, is of paramount importance. The decision-making behind the black boxes requires it to be more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. This survey paper provides essential definitions, an overview of the different principles and methodologies of explainable Supervised Machine Learning (SML). We conduct a state-of-the-art survey that reviews past and recent explainable SML approaches and classifies them according to the introduced definitions. Finally, we illustrate principles by means of an explanatory case study and discuss important future directions.
Machine-learning models have demonstrated great success in learning complex patterns that enable them to make predictions about unobserved data. In addition to using models for prediction, the ability to interpret what a model has learned is receiving an increasing amount of attention. However, this increased focus has led to considerable confusion about the notion of interpretability. In particular, it is unclear how the wide array of proposed interpretation methods are related, and what common concepts can be used to evaluate them. We aim to address these concerns by defining interpretability in the context of machine learning and introducing the Predictive, Descriptive, Relevant (PDR) framework for discussing interpretations. The PDR framework provides three overarching desiderata for evaluation: predictive accuracy, descriptive accuracy and relevancy, with relevancy judged relative to a human audience. Moreover, to help manage the deluge of interpretation methods, we introduce a categorization of existing techniques into model-based and post-hoc categories, with sub-groups including sparsity, modularity and simulatability. To demonstrate how practitioners can use the PDR framework to evaluate and understand interpretations, we provide numerous real-world examples. These examples highlight the often under-appreciated role played by human audiences in discussions of interpretability. Finally, based on our framework, we discuss limitations of existing methods and directions for future work. We hope that this work will provide a common vocabulary that will make it easier for both practitioners and researchers to discuss and choose from the full range of interpretation methods.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191