The bootstrap is a popular data-driven method to quantify statistical uncertainty, but for modern high-dimensional problems, it could suffer from huge computational costs due to the need to repeatedly generate resamples and refit models. We study the use of bootstraps in high-dimensional environments with a small number of resamples. In particular, we show that with a recent "cheap" bootstrap perspective, using a number of resamples as small as one could attain valid coverage even when the dimension grows closely with the sample size, thus strongly supporting the implementability of the bootstrap for large-scale problems. We validate our theoretical results and compare the performance of our approach with other benchmarks via a range of experiments.
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Within the statistical literature, there is a lack of methods that allow for asymmetric multivariate spatial effects to model relations underlying complex spatial phenomena. Intercropping is one such phenomenon. In this ancient agricultural practice multiple crop species or varieties are cultivated together in close proximity and are subject to mutual competition. To properly analyse such a system, it is necessary to account for both within- and between-plot effects, where between-plot effects are asymmetric. Building on the multivariate spatial autoregressive model and the Gaussian graphical model, the proposed method takes asymmetric spatial relations into account, thereby removing some of the limiting factors of spatial analyses and giving researchers a better indication of the existence and extend of spatial relationships. Using a Bayesian-estimation framework, the model shows promising results in the simulation study. The model is applied on intercropping data consisting of Belgian endive and beetroot, illustrating the usage of the proposed methodology. An R package containing the proposed methodology can be found on // CRAN.R-project.org/package=SAGM.
Weakly hard real-time systems can, to some degree, tolerate deadline misses, but their schedulability still needs to be analyzed to ensure their quality of service. Such analysis usually occurs at early design stages to provide implementation guidelines to engineers so that they can make better design decisions. Estimating worst-case execution times (WCET) is a key input to schedulability analysis. However, early on during system design, estimating WCET values is challenging and engineers usually determine them as plausible ranges based on their domain knowledge. Our approach aims at finding restricted, safe WCET sub-ranges given a set of ranges initially estimated by experts in the context of weakly hard real-time systems. To this end, we leverage (1) multi-objective search aiming at maximizing the violation of weakly hard constraints in order to find worst-case scheduling scenarios and (2) polynomial logistic regression to infer safe WCET ranges with a probabilistic interpretation. We evaluated our approach by applying it to an industrial system in the satellite domain and several realistic synthetic systems. The results indicate that our approach significantly outperforms a baseline relying on random search without learning, and estimates safe WCET ranges with a high degree of confidence in practical time (< 23h).
Machine learning (ML) components are being added to more and more critical and impactful software systems, but the software development process of real-world production systems from prototyped ML models remains challenging with additional complexity and interdisciplinary collaboration challenges. This poses difficulties in using traditional software lifecycle models such as waterfall, spiral or agile model when building ML-enabled systems. By interviewing with practitioners from multiple companies, we investigated the application of using systems engineering process in ML-enabled systems. We developed a set of propositions and proposed V4ML process model for building products with ML components. We found that V4ML process model requires more efforts on documentation, system decomposition and V&V, but it addressed the interdisciplinary collaboration challenges and additional complexity introduced by ML components.
Recent diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have shown remarkable abilities of generated content, however, they often suffer from complex forward processes, resulting in inefficient solutions for the reversed process and prolonged sampling times. In this paper, we aim to address the aforementioned challenges by focusing on the diffusion process itself that we propose to decouple the intricate diffusion process into two comparatively simpler process to improve the generative efficacy and speed. In particular, we present a novel diffusion paradigm named DDM (Decoupled Diffusion Models) based on the Ito diffusion process, in which the image distribution is approximated by an explicit transition probability while the noise path is controlled by the standard Wiener process. We find that decoupling the diffusion process reduces the learning difficulty and the explicit transition probability improves the generative speed significantly. We prove a new training objective for DPM, which enables the model to learn to predict the noise and image components separately. Moreover, given the novel forward diffusion equation, we derive the reverse denoising formula of DDM that naturally supports fewer steps of generation without ordinary differential equation (ODE) based accelerators. Our experiments demonstrate that DDM outperforms previous DPMs by a large margin in fewer function evaluations setting and gets comparable performances in long function evaluations setting. We also show that our framework can be applied to image-conditioned generation and high-resolution image synthesis, and that it can generate high-quality images with only 10 function evaluations.
While language models are powerful and versatile, they often fail to address highly complex problems. This is because solving complex problems requires deliberate thinking, which has been only minimally guided during training. In this paper, we propose a new method called Cumulative Reasoning (CR), which employs language models in a cumulative and iterative manner to emulate human thought processes. By decomposing tasks into smaller components, CR streamlines the problem-solving process, rendering it both more manageable and effective. For logical inference tasks, CR consistently outperforms existing methods with an improvement up to 9.3%, and achieves the astonishing accuracy of 98.04% on the curated FOLIO wiki dataset. In the context of the Game of 24, CR achieves an accuracy of 94%, which signifies a substantial enhancement of 20% over the previous state-of-the-art method (code is available at //github.com/iiis-ai/cumulative-reasoning).
As online dating has become more popular in the past few years, an efficient and effective algorithm to match users is needed. In this project, we proposed a new dating matching algorithm that uses Kendall-Tau distance to measure the similarity between users based on their ranking for items in a list. (e.g., their favourite sports, music, etc.) To increase the performance of the search process, we applied a tree-based searching structure, Cascading Metric Tree (CMT), on this metric. The tree is built on ranked lists from all the users; when a query target and a radius are provided, our algorithm can return users within the radius of the target. We tested the scaling of this searching method on a synthetic dataset by varying list length, population size, and query radius. We observed that the algorithm is able to query the best matching people for the user in a practical time, given reasonable parameters. We also provided potential future improvements that can be made to this algorithm based on the limitations. Finally, we offered more use cases of this search structure on Kendall-Tau distance and new insight into real-world applications of distance search structures.
Multi-task learning is frequently used to model a set of related response variables from the same set of features, improving predictive performance and modeling accuracy relative to methods that handle each response variable separately. Despite the potential of multi-task learning to yield more powerful inference than single-task alternatives, prior work in this area has largely omitted uncertainty quantification. Our focus in this paper is a common multi-task problem in neuroimaging, where the goal is to understand the relationship between multiple cognitive task scores (or other subject-level assessments) and brain connectome data collected from imaging. We propose a framework for selective inference to address this problem, with the flexibility to: (i) jointly identify the relevant covariates for each task through a sparsity-inducing penalty, and (ii) conduct valid inference in a model based on the estimated sparsity structure. Our framework offers a new conditional procedure for inference, based on a refinement of the selection event that yields a tractable selection-adjusted likelihood. This gives an approximate system of estimating equations for maximum likelihood inference, solvable via a single convex optimization problem, and enables us to efficiently form confidence intervals with approximately the correct coverage. Applied to both simulated data and data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study, our selective inference methods yield tighter confidence intervals than commonly used alternatives, such as data splitting. We also demonstrate through simulations that multi-task learning with selective inference can more accurately recover true signals than single-task methods.
Anomaly detection is a challenging task, particularly in systems with many variables. Anomalies are outliers that statistically differ from the analyzed data and can arise from rare events, malfunctions, or system misuse. This study investigated the ability to detect anomalies in global financial markets through Graph Neural Networks (GNN) considering an uncertainty scenario measured by a nonextensive entropy. The main findings show that the complex structure of highly correlated assets decreases in a crisis, and the number of anomalies is statistically different for nonextensive entropy parameters considering before, during, and after crisis.
We propose a novel method for automatic reasoning on knowledge graphs based on debate dynamics. The main idea is to frame the task of triple classification as a debate game between two reinforcement learning agents which extract arguments -- paths in the knowledge graph -- with the goal to promote the fact being true (thesis) or the fact being false (antithesis), respectively. Based on these arguments, a binary classifier, called the judge, decides whether the fact is true or false. The two agents can be considered as sparse, adversarial feature generators that present interpretable evidence for either the thesis or the antithesis. In contrast to other black-box methods, the arguments allow users to get an understanding of the decision of the judge. Since the focus of this work is to create an explainable method that maintains a competitive predictive accuracy, we benchmark our method on the triple classification and link prediction task. Thereby, we find that our method outperforms several baselines on the benchmark datasets FB15k-237, WN18RR, and Hetionet. We also conduct a survey and find that the extracted arguments are informative for users.
Event detection (ED), a sub-task of event extraction, involves identifying triggers and categorizing event mentions. Existing methods primarily rely upon supervised learning and require large-scale labeled event datasets which are unfortunately not readily available in many real-life applications. In this paper, we consider and reformulate the ED task with limited labeled data as a Few-Shot Learning problem. We propose a Dynamic-Memory-Based Prototypical Network (DMB-PN), which exploits Dynamic Memory Network (DMN) to not only learn better prototypes for event types, but also produce more robust sentence encodings for event mentions. Differing from vanilla prototypical networks simply computing event prototypes by averaging, which only consume event mentions once, our model is more robust and is capable of distilling contextual information from event mentions for multiple times due to the multi-hop mechanism of DMNs. The experiments show that DMB-PN not only deals with sample scarcity better than a series of baseline models but also performs more robustly when the variety of event types is relatively large and the instance quantity is extremely small.
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