Real-world games, which concern imperfect information, multiple players, and simultaneous moves, are less frequently discussed in the existing literature of game theory. While reinforcement learning (RL) provides a general framework to extend the game theoretical algorithms, the assumptions that guarantee their convergence towards Nash equilibria may no longer hold in real-world games. Starting from the definition of the Nash distribution, we construct a continuous-time dynamic named imperfect-information exponential-decay score-based learning (IESL) to find approximate Nash equilibria in games with the above-mentioned features. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that IESL yields equilibrium-approaching policies in imperfect information simultaneous games with the basic assumption of concavity. Experimental results show that IESL manages to find approximate Nash equilibria in four canonical poker scenarios and significantly outperforms three other representative algorithms in 3-player Leduc poker, manifesting its equilibrium-finding ability even in practical sequential games. Furthermore, related to the concept of game hypomonotonicity, a trade-off between the convergence of the IESL dynamic and the ultimate NashConv of the convergent policies is observed from the perspectives of both theory and experiment.
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Neural networks (NNs) have various applications in AI, but explaining their decisions remains challenging. Existing approaches often focus on explaining how changing individual inputs affects NNs' outputs. However, an explanation that is consistent with the input-output behaviour of an NN is not necessarily faithful to the actual mechanics thereof. In this paper, we exploit relationships between multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) and quantitative argumentation frameworks (QAFs) to create argumentative explanations for the mechanics of MLPs. Our SpArX method first sparsifies the MLP while maintaining as much of the original structure as possible. It then translates the sparse MLP into an equivalent QAF to shed light on the underlying decision process of the MLP, producing global and/or local explanations. We demonstrate experimentally that SpArX can give more faithful explanations than existing approaches, while simultaneously providing deeper insights into the actual reasoning process of MLPs.
The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.
We consider a Multi-Agent Path Finding (MAPF) setting where agents have been assigned a plan, but during its execution some agents are delayed. Instead of replanning from scratch when such a delay occurs, we propose delay introduction, whereby we delay some additional agents so that the remainder of the plan can be executed safely. We show that the corresponding decision problem is NP-Complete in general. However, in practice we can find optimal delay-introductions using CBS for very large numbers of agents, and both planning time and the resulting length of the plan are comparable, and sometimes outperform, the state-of-the-art heuristics for replanning. We also examine the benefits of our method from an explainability point of view.
Gaussian Partial Information Decomposition: Bias Correction and Application to High-dimensional Data
Recent advances in neuroscientific experimental techniques have enabled us to simultaneously record the activity of thousands of neurons across multiple brain regions. This has led to a growing need for computational tools capable of analyzing how task-relevant information is represented and communicated between several brain regions. Partial information decompositions (PIDs) have emerged as one such tool, quantifying how much unique, redundant and synergistic information two or more brain regions carry about a task-relevant message. However, computing PIDs is computationally challenging in practice, and statistical issues such as the bias and variance of estimates remain largely unexplored. In this paper, we propose a new method for efficiently computing and estimating a PID definition on multivariate Gaussian distributions. We show empirically that our method satisfies an intuitive additivity property, and recovers the ground truth in a battery of canonical examples, even at high dimensionality. We also propose and evaluate, for the first time, a method to correct the bias in PID estimates at finite sample sizes. Finally, we demonstrate that our Gaussian PID effectively characterizes inter-areal interactions in the mouse brain, revealing higher redundancy between visual areas when a stimulus is behaviorally relevant.
We view variational autoencoders (VAE) as decoder-encoder pairs, which map distributions in the data space to distributions in the latent space and vice versa. The standard learning approach for VAEs, i.e. maximisation of the evidence lower bound (ELBO), has an obvious asymmetry in that respect. Moreover, it requires a closed form a-priori latent distribution. This limits the applicability of VAEs in more complex scenarios, such as general semi-supervised learning and employing complex generative models as priors. We propose a Nash equilibrium learning approach that relaxes these restrictions and allows learning VAEs in situations where both the data and the latent distributions are accessible only by sampling. The flexibility and simplicity of this approach allows its application to a wide range of learning scenarios and downstream tasks. We show experimentally that the models learned by this method are comparable to those obtained by ELBO learning and demonstrate its applicability for tasks that are not accessible by standard VAE learning.
Many real-world games suffer from information asymmetry: one player is only aware of their own payoffs while the other player has the full game information. Examples include the critical domain of security games and adversarial multi-agent reinforcement learning. Information asymmetry renders traditional solution concepts such as Strong Stackelberg Equilibrium (SSE) and Robust-Optimization Equilibrium (ROE) inoperative. We propose a novel solution concept called VISER (Victim Is Secure, Exploiter best-Responds). VISER enables an external observer to predict the outcome of such games. In particular, for security applications, VISER allows the victim to better defend itself while characterizing the most damaging attacks available to the attacker. We show that each player's VISER strategy can be computed independently in polynomial time using linear programming (LP). We also extend VISER to its Markov-perfect counterpart for Markov games, which can be solved efficiently using a series of LPs.
Variable independence and decomposability are algorithmic techniques for simplifying logical formulas by tearing apart connections between free variables. These techniques were originally proposed to speed up query evaluation in constraint databases, in particular by representing the query as a Boolean combination of formulas with no interconnected variables. They also have many other applications in SMT, string analysis, databases, automata theory and other areas. However, the precise complexity of variable independence and decomposability has been left open especially for the quantifier-free theory of linear real arithmetic (LRA), which is central in database applications. We introduce a novel characterization of formulas admitting decompositions and use it to show that it is coNP-complete to decide variable decomposability over LRA. As a corollary, we obtain that deciding variable independence is in $ \Sigma_2^p $. These results substantially improve the best known double-exponential time algorithms for variable decomposability and independence. In many practical applications, it is crucial to be able to efficiently eliminate connections between variables whenever possible. We design and implement an algorithm for this problem, which is optimal in theory, exponentially faster compared to the current state-of-the-art algorithm and efficient on various microbenchmarks. In particular, our algorithm is the first one to overcome a fundamental barrier between non-discrete and discrete first-order theories. Formulas arising in practice often have few or even no free variables that are perfectly independent. In this case, our algorithm can compute a best-possible approximation of a decomposition, which can be used to optimize database queries by exploiting partial variable independence, which is present in almost every logical formula or database query constraint.
Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.
Promoting behavioural diversity is critical for solving games with non-transitive dynamics where strategic cycles exist, and there is no consistent winner (e.g., Rock-Paper-Scissors). Yet, there is a lack of rigorous treatment for defining diversity and constructing diversity-aware learning dynamics. In this work, we offer a geometric interpretation of behavioural diversity in games and introduce a novel diversity metric based on \emph{determinantal point processes} (DPP). By incorporating the diversity metric into best-response dynamics, we develop \emph{diverse fictitious play} and \emph{diverse policy-space response oracle} for solving normal-form games and open-ended games. We prove the uniqueness of the diverse best response and the convergence of our algorithms on two-player games. Importantly, we show that maximising the DPP-based diversity metric guarantees to enlarge the \emph{gamescape} -- convex polytopes spanned by agents' mixtures of strategies. To validate our diversity-aware solvers, we test on tens of games that show strong non-transitivity. Results suggest that our methods achieve much lower exploitability than state-of-the-art solvers by finding effective and diverse strategies.
Clustering is one of the most fundamental and wide-spread techniques in exploratory data analysis. Yet, the basic approach to clustering has not really changed: a practitioner hand-picks a task-specific clustering loss to optimize and fit the given data to reveal the underlying cluster structure. Some types of losses---such as k-means, or its non-linear version: kernelized k-means (centroid based), and DBSCAN (density based)---are popular choices due to their good empirical performance on a range of applications. Although every so often the clustering output using these standard losses fails to reveal the underlying structure, and the practitioner has to custom-design their own variation. In this work we take an intrinsically different approach to clustering: rather than fitting a dataset to a specific clustering loss, we train a recurrent model that learns how to cluster. The model uses as training pairs examples of datasets (as input) and its corresponding cluster identities (as output). By providing multiple types of training datasets as inputs, our model has the ability to generalize well on unseen datasets (new clustering tasks). Our experiments reveal that by training on simple synthetically generated datasets or on existing real datasets, we can achieve better clustering performance on unseen real-world datasets when compared with standard benchmark clustering techniques. Our meta clustering model works well even for small datasets where the usual deep learning models tend to perform worse.
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