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The number of modes in a probability density function is representative of the model's complexity and can also be viewed as the number of existing subpopulations. Despite its relevance, little research has been devoted to its estimation. Focusing on the univariate setting, we propose a novel approach targeting prediction accuracy inspired by some overlooked aspects of the problem. We argue for the need for structure in the solutions, the subjective and uncertain nature of modes, and the convenience of a holistic view blending global and local density properties. Our method builds upon a combination of flexible kernel estimators and parsimonious compositional splines. Feature exploration, model selection and mode testing are implemented in the Bayesian inference paradigm, providing soft solutions and allowing to incorporate expert judgement in the process. The usefulness of our proposal is illustrated through a case study in sports analytics, showcasing multiple companion visualisation tools. A thorough simulation study demonstrates that traditional modality-driven approaches paradoxically struggle to provide accurate results. In this context, our method emerges as a top-tier alternative offering innovative solutions for analysts.

It has been observed by several authors that well-known periodization strategies like tent or Chebychev transforms lead to remarkable results for the recovery of multivariate functions from few samples. So far, theoretical guarantees are missing. The goal of this paper is twofold. On the one hand, we give such guarantees and briefly describe the difficulties of the involved proof. On the other hand, we combine these periodization strategies with recent novel constructive methods for the efficient subsampling of finite frames in $\mathbb{C}$. As a result we are able to reconstruct non-periodic multivariate functions from very few samples. The used sampling nodes are the result of a two-step procedure. Firstly, a random draw with respect to the Chebychev measure provides an initial node set. A further sparsification technique selects a significantly smaller subset of these nodes with equal approximation properties. This set of sampling nodes scales linearly in the dimension of the subspace on which we project and works universally for the whole class of functions. The method is based on principles developed by Batson, Spielman, and Srivastava and can be numerically implemented. Samples on these nodes are then used in a (plain) least-squares sampling recovery step on a suitable hyperbolic cross subspace of functions resulting in a near-optimal behavior of the sampling error. Numerical experiments indicate the applicability of our results.

Machine learning (ML) and deep learning models are extensively used for parameter optimization and regression problems. However, not all inverse problems in ML are ``identifiable,'' indicating that model parameters may not be uniquely determined from the available data and the data model's input-output relationship. In this study, we investigate the notion of model parameter identifiability through a case study focused on parameter estimation from motion sensor data. Utilizing a bipedal-spring mass human walk dynamics model, we generate synthetic data representing diverse gait patterns and conditions. Employing a deep neural network, we attempt to estimate subject-wise parameters, including mass, stiffness, and equilibrium leg length. The results show that while certain parameters can be identified from the observation data, others remain unidentifiable, highlighting that unidentifiability is an intrinsic limitation of the experimental setup, necessitating a change in data collection and experimental scenarios. Beyond this specific case study, the concept of identifiability has broader implications in ML and deep learning. Addressing unidentifiability requires proven identifiable models (with theoretical support), multimodal data fusion techniques, and advancements in model-based machine learning. Understanding and resolving unidentifiability challenges will lead to more reliable and accurate applications across diverse domains, transcending mere model convergence and enhancing the reliability of machine learning models.

Amortized variational inference (A-VI) is a method for approximating the intractable posterior distributions that arise in probabilistic models. The defining feature of A-VI is that it learns a global inference function that maps each observation to its local latent variable's approximate posterior. This stands in contrast to the more classical factorized (or mean-field) variational inference (F-VI), which directly learns the parameters of the approximating distribution for each latent variable. In deep generative models, A-VI is used as a computational trick to speed up inference for local latent variables. In this paper, we study A-VI as a general alternative to F-VI for approximate posterior inference. A-VI cannot produce an approximation with a lower Kullback-Leibler divergence than F-VI's optimal solution, because the amortized family is a subset of the factorized family. Thus a central theoretical problem is to characterize when A-VI still attains F-VI's optimal solution. We derive conditions on both the model and the inference function under which A-VI can theoretically achieve F-VI's optimum. We show that for a broad class of hierarchical models, including deep generative models, it is possible to close the gap between A-VI and F-VI. Further, for an even broader class of models, we establish when and how to expand the domain of the inference function to make amortization a feasible strategy. Finally, we prove that for certain models -- including hidden Markov models and Gaussian processes -- A-VI cannot match F-VI's solution, no matter how expressive the inference function is. We also study A-VI empirically [...]

Performance issues permeate large-scale cloud service systems, which can lead to huge revenue losses. To ensure reliable performance, it's essential to accurately identify and localize these issues using service monitoring metrics. Given the complexity and scale of modern cloud systems, this task can be challenging and may require extensive expertise and resources beyond the capacity of individual humans. Some existing methods tackle this problem by analyzing each metric independently to detect anomalies. However, this could incur overwhelming alert storms that are difficult for engineers to diagnose manually. To pursue better performance, not only the temporal patterns of metrics but also the correlation between metrics (i.e., relational patterns) should be considered, which can be formulated as a multivariate metrics anomaly detection problem. However, most of the studies fall short of extracting these two types of features explicitly. Moreover, there exist some unlabeled anomalies mixed in the training data, which may hinder the detection performance. To address these limitations, we propose the Relational- Temporal Anomaly Detection Model (RTAnomaly) that combines the relational and temporal information of metrics. RTAnomaly employs a graph attention layer to learn the dependencies among metrics, which will further help pinpoint the anomalous metrics that may cause the anomaly effectively. In addition, we exploit the concept of positive unlabeled learning to address the issue of potential anomalies in the training data. To evaluate our method, we conduct experiments on a public dataset and two industrial datasets. RTAnomaly outperforms all the baseline models by achieving an average F1 score of 0.929 and Hit@3 of 0.920, demonstrating its superiority.

A dynamic factor model with factor series following a VAR$(p)$ model is shown to have a VARMA$(p,p)$ model representation. Reduced-rank structures are identified for the VAR and VMA components of the resulting VARMA model. It is also shown how the VMA component parameters can be computed numerically from the original model parameters via the innovations algorithm, and connections of this approach to non-linear matrix equations are made. Some VAR models related to the resulting VARMA model are also discussed.

Moderate calibration, the expected event probability among observations with predicted probability $\pi$ being equal to $\pi$, is a desired property of risk prediction models. Current graphical and numerical techniques for evaluating moderate calibration of clinical prediction models are mostly based on smoothing or grouping the data. As well, there is no widely accepted inferential method for the null hypothesis that a model is moderately calibrated. In this work, we discuss recently-developed, and propose novel, methods for the assessment of moderate calibration for binary responses. The methods are based on the limiting distributions of functions of standardized partial sums of prediction errors converging to the corresponding laws of Brownian motion. The novel method relies on well-known properties of the Brownian bridge which enables joint inference on mean and moderate calibration, leading to a unified 'bridge' test for detecting miscalibration. Simulation studies indicate that the bridge test is more powerful, often substantially, than the alternative test. As a case study we consider a prediction model for short-term mortality after a heart attack. Moderate calibration can be assessed without requiring arbitrary grouping of data or using methods that require tuning of parameters. We suggest graphical presentation of the partial sum curves and reporting the strength of evidence indicated by the proposed methods when examining model calibration.

We study the problem of fairly allocating $m$ indivisible items among $n$ agents. Envy-free allocations, in which each agent prefers her bundle to the bundle of every other agent, need not exist in the worst case. However, when agents have additive preferences and the value $v_{i,j}$ of agent $i$ for item $j$ is drawn independently from a distribution $D_i$, envy-free allocations exist with high probability when $m \in \Omega( n \log n / \log \log n )$. In this paper, we study the existence of envy-free allocations under stochastic valuations far beyond the additive setting. We introduce a new stochastic model in which each agent's valuation is sampled by first fixing a worst-case function, and then drawing a uniformly random renaming of the items, independently for each agent. This strictly generalizes known settings; for example, $v_{i,j} \sim D_i$ may be seen as picking a random (instead of a worst-case) additive function before renaming. We prove that random renaming is sufficient to ensure that envy-free allocations exist with high probability in very general settings. When valuations are non-negative and ``order-consistent,'' a valuation class that generalizes additive, budget-additive, unit-demand, and single-minded agents, SD-envy-free allocations (a stronger notion of fairness than envy-freeness) exist for $m \in \omega(n^2)$ when $n$ divides $m$, and SD-EFX allocations exist for all $m \in \omega(n^2)$. The dependence on $n$ is tight, that is, for $m \in O(n^2)$ envy-free allocations don't exist with constant probability. For the case of arbitrary valuations (allowing non-monotone, negative, or mixed-manna valuations) and $n=2$ agents, we prove envy-free allocations exist with probability $1 - \Theta(1/m)$ (and this is tight).

This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.

This book develops an effective theory approach to understanding deep neural networks of practical relevance. Beginning from a first-principles component-level picture of networks, we explain how to determine an accurate description of the output of trained networks by solving layer-to-layer iteration equations and nonlinear learning dynamics. A main result is that the predictions of networks are described by nearly-Gaussian distributions, with the depth-to-width aspect ratio of the network controlling the deviations from the infinite-width Gaussian description. We explain how these effectively-deep networks learn nontrivial representations from training and more broadly analyze the mechanism of representation learning for nonlinear models. From a nearly-kernel-methods perspective, we find that the dependence of such models' predictions on the underlying learning algorithm can be expressed in a simple and universal way. To obtain these results, we develop the notion of representation group flow (RG flow) to characterize the propagation of signals through the network. By tuning networks to criticality, we give a practical solution to the exploding and vanishing gradient problem. We further explain how RG flow leads to near-universal behavior and lets us categorize networks built from different activation functions into universality classes. Altogether, we show that the depth-to-width ratio governs the effective model complexity of the ensemble of trained networks. By using information-theoretic techniques, we estimate the optimal aspect ratio at which we expect the network to be practically most useful and show how residual connections can be used to push this scale to arbitrary depths. With these tools, we can learn in detail about the inductive bias of architectures, hyperparameters, and optimizers.