Most of the metrics used for detecting a causal relationship among multiple time series ignore the effects of practical measurement impairments, such as finite sample effects, undersampling and measurement noise. It has been shown that these effects significantly impair the performance of the underlying causality test. In this paper, we consider the problem of sequentially detecting the causal relationship between two time series while accounting for these measurement impairments. In this context, we first formulate the problem of Granger causality detection as a binary hypothesis test using the norm of the estimates of the vector auto-regressive~(VAR) coefficients of the two time series as the test statistic. Following this, we investigate sequential estimation of these coefficients and formulate a sequential test for detecting the causal relationship between two time series. Finally via detailed simulations, we validate our derived results, and evaluate the performance of the proposed causality detectors.
相關內容
假設檢驗是推論統計中用于檢驗統計假設的一種方法。?而“統計假設”是可通過觀察一組隨機變量的模型進行檢驗的科學假說。一旦能估計未知參數，就會希望根據結果對未知的真正參數值做出適當的推論。
統計上對參數的假設，就是對一個或多個參數的論述。而其中欲檢驗其正確性的為零假設（null hypothesis），零假設通常由研究者決定，反映研究者對未知參數的看法。相對于零假設的其他有關參數之論述是備擇假設（alternative hypothesis），它通常反應了執行檢定的研究者對參數可能數值的另一種（對立的）看法（換句話說，備擇假設通常才是研究者最想知道的）。
假設檢驗的種類包括：t檢驗，Z檢驗，卡方檢驗，F檢驗等等。
Despite their successful application to a variety of tasks, neural networks remain limited, like other machine learning methods, by their sensitivity to shifts in the data: their performance can be severely impacted by differences in distribution between the data on which they were trained and that on which they are deployed. In this article, we propose a new family of representations, called MAGDiff, that we extract from any given neural network classifier and that allows for efficient covariate data shift detection without the need to train a new model dedicated to this task. These representations are computed by comparing the activation graphs of the neural network for samples belonging to the training distribution and to the target distribution, and yield powerful data- and task-adapted statistics for the two-sample tests commonly used for data set shift detection. We demonstrate this empirically by measuring the statistical powers of two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests on several different data sets and shift types, and showing that our novel representations induce significant improvements over a state-of-the-art baseline relying on the network output.
Event Causality Identification (ECI) aims to identify causal relations between events in unstructured texts. This is a very challenging task, because causal relations are usually expressed by implicit associations between events. Existing methods usually capture such associations by directly modeling the texts with pre-trained language models, which underestimate two kinds of semantic structures vital to the ECI task, namely, event-centric structure and event-associated structure. The former includes important semantic elements related to the events to describe them more precisely, while the latter contains semantic paths between two events to provide possible supports for ECI. In this paper, we study the implicit associations between events by modeling the above explicit semantic structures, and propose a Semantic Structure Integration model (SemSIn). It utilizes a GNN-based event aggregator to integrate the event-centric structure information, and employs an LSTM-based path aggregator to capture the event-associated structure information between two events. Experimental results on three widely used datasets show that SemSIn achieves significant improvements over baseline methods.
Bayesian inference is a powerful tool for combining information in complex settings, a task of increasing importance in modern applications. However, Bayesian inference with a flawed model can produce unreliable conclusions. This review discusses approaches to performing Bayesian inference when the model is misspecified, where by misspecified we mean that the analyst is unwilling to act as if the model is correct. Much has been written about this topic, and in most cases we do not believe that a conventional Bayesian analysis is meaningful when there is serious model misspecification. Nevertheless, in some cases it is possible to use a well-specified model to give meaning to a Bayesian analysis of a misspecified model and we will focus on such cases. Three main classes of methods are discussed - restricted likelihood methods, which use a model based on a non-sufficient summary of the original data; modular inference methods which use a model constructed from coupled submodels and some of the submodels are correctly specified; and the use of a reference model to construct a projected posterior or predictive distribution for a simplified model considered to be useful for prediction or interpretation.
We study the parametric online changepoint detection problem, where the underlying distribution of the streaming data changes from a known distribution to an alternative that is of a known parametric form but with unknown parameters. We propose a joint detection/estimation scheme, which we call Window-Limited CUSUM, that combines the cumulative sum (CUSUM) test with a sliding window-based consistent estimate of the post-change parameters. We characterize the optimal choice of the window size and show that the Window-Limited CUSUM enjoys first-order asymptotic optimality as average run length approaches infinity under the optimal choice of window length. Compared to existing schemes with similar asymptotic optimality properties, our test can be much faster computed because it can recursively update the CUSUM statistic by employing the estimate of the post-change parameters. A parallel variant is also proposed that facilitates the practical implementation of the test. Numerical simulations corroborate our theoretical findings.
We introduce an approach which allows inferring causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Our method builds on the ideas of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, but overcomes most of their limitations. Specifically, our approach tests whether the predictability of a putative driven system Y can be improved by incorporating information from a potential driver system X, without making assumptions on the underlying dynamics and without the need to compute probability densities of the dynamic variables. Causality is assessed by a rigorous variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a recently developed statistical test capable of inferring the relative information content of different distance measures. This framework makes causality detection possible even for high-dimensional systems where only few of the variables are known or measured. Benchmark tests on coupled dynamical systems demonstrate that our approach outperforms other model-free causality detection methods, successfully handling both unidirectional and bidirectional couplings, and it is capable of detecting the arrow of time when present. We also show that the method can be used to robustly detect causality in electroencephalography data in humans.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
While existing machine learning models have achieved great success for sentiment classification, they typically do not explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction, which can lead to poor results for fine-grained analysis at the snippet level (a phrase or sentence). Factorization Machine provides a possible approach to learning element-wise interaction for recommender systems, but they are not directly applicable to our task due to the inability to model contexts and word sequences. In this work, we develop two Position-aware Factorization Machines which consider word interaction, context and position information. Such information is jointly encoded in a set of sentiment-oriented word interaction vectors. Compared to traditional word embeddings, SWI vectors explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction and simplify the parameter learning. Experimental results show that while they have comparable performance with state-of-the-art methods for document-level classification, they benefit the snippet/sentence-level sentiment analysis.
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