We introduce an approach which allows inferring causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Our method builds on the ideas of Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy, but overcomes most of their limitations. Specifically, our approach tests whether the predictability of a putative driven system Y can be improved by incorporating information from a potential driver system X, without making assumptions on the underlying dynamics and without the need to compute probability densities of the dynamic variables. Causality is assessed by a rigorous variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a recently developed statistical test capable of inferring the relative information content of different distance measures. This framework makes causality detection possible even for high-dimensional systems where only few of the variables are known or measured. Benchmark tests on coupled dynamical systems demonstrate that our approach outperforms other model-free causality detection methods, successfully handling both unidirectional and bidirectional couplings, and it is capable of detecting the arrow of time when present. We also show that the method can be used to robustly detect causality in electroencephalography data in humans.
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Synthetic time series are often used in practical applications to augment the historical time series dataset for better performance of machine learning algorithms, amplify the occurrence of rare events, and also create counterfactual scenarios described by the time series. Distributional-similarity (which we refer to as realism) as well as the satisfaction of certain numerical constraints are common requirements in counterfactual time series scenario generation requests. For instance, the US Federal Reserve publishes synthetic market stress scenarios given by the constrained time series for financial institutions to assess their performance in hypothetical recessions. Existing approaches for generating constrained time series usually penalize training loss to enforce constraints, and reject non-conforming samples. However, these approaches would require re-training if we change constraints, and rejection sampling can be computationally expensive, or impractical for complex constraints. In this paper, we propose a novel set of methods to tackle the constrained time series generation problem and provide efficient sampling while ensuring the realism of generated time series. In particular, we frame the problem using a constrained optimization framework and then we propose a set of generative methods including ``GuidedDiffTime'', a guided diffusion model to generate realistic time series. Empirically, we evaluate our work on several datasets for financial and energy data, where incorporating constraints is critical. We show that our approaches outperform existing work both qualitatively and quantitatively. Most importantly, we show that our ``GuidedDiffTime'' model is the only solution where re-training is not necessary for new constraints, resulting in a significant carbon footprint reduction.
Various neural network architectures rely on pooling operators to aggregate information coming from different sources. It is often implicitly assumed in such contexts that vectors encode epistemic states, i.e. that vectors capture the evidence that has been obtained about some properties of interest, and that pooling these vectors yields a vector that combines this evidence. We study, for a number of standard pooling operators, under what conditions they are compatible with this idea, which we call the epistemic pooling principle. While we find that all the considered pooling operators can satisfy the epistemic pooling principle, this only holds when embeddings are sufficiently high-dimensional and, for most pooling operators, when the embeddings satisfy particular constraints (e.g. having non-negative coordinates). We furthermore show that these constraints have important implications on how the embeddings can be used in practice. In particular, we find that when the epistemic pooling principle is satisfied, in most cases it is impossible to verify the satisfaction of propositional formulas using linear scoring functions, with two exceptions: (i) max-pooling with embeddings that are upper-bounded and (ii) Hadamard pooling with non-negative embeddings. This finding helps to clarify, among others, why Graph Neural Networks sometimes under-perform in reasoning tasks. Finally, we also study an extension of the epistemic pooling principle to weighted epistemic states, which are important in the context of non-monotonic reasoning, where max-pooling emerges as the most suitable operator.
In classification problems, the datasets are usually imbalanced, noisy or complex. Most sampling algorithms only make some improvements to the linear sampling mechanism of the synthetic minority oversampling technique (SMOTE). Nevertheless, linear oversampling has several unavoidable drawbacks. Linear oversampling is susceptible to overfitting, and the synthetic samples lack diversity and rarely account for the original distribution characteristics. An informed nonlinear oversampling framework with the granular ball (INGB) as a new direction of oversampling is proposed in this paper. It uses granular balls to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of datasets, and informed entropy is utilized to further optimize the granular-ball space. Then, nonlinear oversampling is performed by following high-dimensional sparsity and the isotropic Gaussian distribution. Furthermore, INGB has good compatibility. Not only can it be combined with most SMOTE-based sampling algorithms to improve their performance, but it can also be easily extended to noisy imbalanced multi-classification problems. The mathematical model and theoretical proof of INGB are given in this work. Extensive experiments demonstrate that INGB outperforms the traditional linear sampling frameworks and algorithms in oversampling on complex datasets.
In recent years, by leveraging more data, computation, and diverse tasks, learned optimizers have achieved remarkable success in supervised learning, outperforming classical hand-designed optimizers. Reinforcement learning (RL) is essentially different from supervised learning and in practice these learned optimizers do not work well even in simple RL tasks. We investigate this phenomenon and identity three issues. First, the gradients of an RL agent vary across a wide range in logarithms while their absolute values are in a small range, making neural networks hard to obtain accurate parameter updates. Second, the agent-gradient distribution is non-independent and identically distributed, leading to inefficient meta-training. Finally, due to highly stochastic agent-environment interactions, the agent-gradients have high bias and variance, which increase the difficulty of learning an optimizer for RL. We propose gradient processing, pipeline training, and a novel optimizer structure with good inductive bias to address these issues. By applying these techniques, for the first time, we show that learning an optimizer for RL from scratch is possible. Although only trained in toy tasks, our learned optimizer can generalize to unseen complex tasks in Brax.
Linear models are commonly used in causal inference for the analysis of experimental data. This is motivated by the ability to adjust for confounding variables and to obtain treatment effect estimators of increased precision through variance reduction. There is, however, a replicability crisis in applied research through unknown reporting of the data collection process. In modern A/B tests, there is a demand to perform regression-adjusted inference on experimental data in real-time. Linear models are a viable solution because they can be computed online over streams of data. Together, these motivate modernizing linear model theory by providing ``Anytime-Valid'' inference. These replace classical fixed-n Type I error and coverage guarantees with time-uniform guarantees, safeguarding applied researchers from p-hacking, allowing experiments to be continuously monitored and stopped using data-dependent rules. Our contributions leverage group invariance principles and modern martingale techniques. We provide sequential $t$-tests and confidence sequences for regression coefficients of a linear model, in addition to sequential $F$-tests and confidence sequences for collections of regression coefficients. With an emphasis on experimental data, we are able to relax the linear model assumption in randomized designs. In particular, we provide completely nonparametric confidence sequences for the average treatment effect in randomized experiments, without assuming linearity or Gaussianity. A particular feature of our contributions is their simplicity. Our test statistics and confidence sequences have closed-form expressions of the original classical statistics, meaning they are no harder to use in practice. This means that published results can be revisited and reevaluated, and software libraries which implement linear regression can be easily wrapped.
We extend the ultraspherical spectral method to solving nonlinear ODE boundary value problems. We propose to use the inexact Newton-GMRES framework for which an effective preconditioner can be constructed and a fast Jacobian-vector multiplication can be effected, thanks to the structured operators of the ultraspherical spectral method. With a mixed-precision implementation, the inexact Newton-GMRES-ultraspherical framework exhibits extraordinary speed and accuracy, as we show by extensive numerical experiments.
We propose a dynamical low-rank algorithm for a gyrokinetic model that is used to describe strongly magnetized plasmas. The low-rank approximation is based on a decomposition into variables parallel and perpendicular to the magnetic field, as suggested by the physics of the underlying problem. We show that the resulting scheme exactly recovers the dispersion relation even with rank 1. We then perform a simulation of kinetic shear Alfv\'en waves and show that using the proposed dynamical low-rank algorithm a drastic reduction (multiple orders of magnitude) in both computational time and memory consumption can be achieved. We also compare the performance of robust first and second-order projector splitting, BUG (also called unconventional), and augmented BUG integrators as well as a FFT-based spectral and Lax--Wendroff discretization.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing research direction owing to the large amount of available data and low budget requirement, compared with randomized controlled trials. Embraced with the rapidly developed machine learning area, various causal effect estimation methods for observational data have sprung up. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of causal inference methods under the potential outcome framework, one of the well known causal inference framework. The methods are divided into two categories depending on whether they require all three assumptions of the potential outcome framework or not. For each category, both the traditional statistical methods and the recent machine learning enhanced methods are discussed and compared. The plausible applications of these methods are also presented, including the applications in advertising, recommendation, medicine and so on. Moreover, the commonly used benchmark datasets as well as the open-source codes are also summarized, which facilitate researchers and practitioners to explore, evaluate and apply the causal inference methods.
Medical image segmentation requires consensus ground truth segmentations to be derived from multiple expert annotations. A novel approach is proposed that obtains consensus segmentations from experts using graph cuts (GC) and semi supervised learning (SSL). Popular approaches use iterative Expectation Maximization (EM) to estimate the final annotation and quantify annotator's performance. Such techniques pose the risk of getting trapped in local minima. We propose a self consistency (SC) score to quantify annotator consistency using low level image features. SSL is used to predict missing annotations by considering global features and local image consistency. The SC score also serves as the penalty cost in a second order Markov random field (MRF) cost function optimized using graph cuts to derive the final consensus label. Graph cut obtains a global maximum without an iterative procedure. Experimental results on synthetic images, real data of Crohn's disease patients and retinal images show our final segmentation to be accurate and more consistent than competing methods.
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