Volatility forecasting is crucial to risk management and portfolio construction. One particular challenge of assessing volatility forecasts is how to construct a robust proxy for the unknown true volatility. In this work, we show that the empirical loss comparison between two volatility predictors hinges on the deviation of the volatility proxy from the true volatility. We then establish non-asymptotic deviation bounds for three robust volatility proxies, two of which are based on clipped data, and the third of which is based on exponentially weighted Huber loss minimization. In particular, in order for the Huber approach to adapt to non-stationary financial returns, we propose to solve a tuning-free weighted Huber loss minimization problem to jointly estimate the volatility and the optimal robustification parameter at each time point. We then inflate this robustification parameter and use it to update the volatility proxy to achieve optimal balance between the bias and variance of the global empirical loss. We also extend this Huber method to construct volatility predictors. Finally, we exploit the proposed robust volatility proxy to compare different volatility predictors on the Bitcoin market data. It turns out that when the sample size is limited, applying the robust volatility proxy gives more consistent and stable evaluation of volatility forecasts.
相關內容
The use of the annual maximum series for flood frequency analyses limits the considered information to one event per year and one sample that is assumed to be homogeneous. However, flood may have different generating processes, such as snowmelt, heavy rainfall or long-duration rainfall, which makes the assumption of homogeneity questionable. Flood types together with statistical flood-type-specific mixture models offer the possibility to consider the different flood-generating processes separately and therefore obtain homogeneous sub-samples. The combination of flood types in a mixture model then gives classical flood quantiles for given return periods. This higher flexibility comes to the cost of more distribution parameters, which may lead to a higher uncertainty in the estimation. This study compares the classical flood frequency models such as the annual maximum series with the type-specific mixture model for different scenarios relevant for design flood estimation in terms of Bias and variance. Thee results show that despite the higher number of parameters, the mixture model is preferable compared to the classical models, if a high number of flood events per year occurs and/or the flood types differ significantly in their distribution parameters.
We develop a new method to find the number of volatility regimes in a nonstationary financial time series by applying unsupervised learning to its volatility structure. We use change point detection to partition a time series into locally stationary segments and then compute a distance matrix between segment distributions. The segments are clustered into a learned number of discrete volatility regimes via an optimization routine. Using this framework, we determine a volatility clustering structure for financial indices, large-cap equities, exchange-traded funds and currency pairs. Our method overcomes the rigid assumptions necessary to implement many parametric regime-switching models, while effectively distilling a time series into several characteristic behaviours. Our results provide significant simplification of these time series and a strong descriptive analysis of prior behaviours of volatility. Finally, we create and validate a dynamic trading strategy that learns the optimal match between the current distribution of a time series and its past regimes, thereby making online risk-avoidance decisions in the present.
We propose a model-free framework for sensitivity analysis of individual treatment effects (ITEs), building upon ideas from conformal inference. For any unit, our procedure reports the $\Gamma$-value, a number which quantifies the minimum strength of confounding needed to explain away the evidence for ITE. Our approach rests on the reliable predictive inference of counterfactuals and ITEs in situations where the training data is confounded. Under the marginal sensitivity model of Tan (2006), we characterize the shift between the distribution of the observations and that of the counterfactuals. We first develop a general method for predictive inference of test samples from a shifted distribution; we then leverage this to construct covariate-dependent prediction sets for counterfactuals. No matter the value of the shift, these prediction sets (resp. approximately) achieve marginal coverage if the propensity score is known exactly (resp. estimated). We describe a distinct procedure also attaining coverage, however, conditional on the training data. In the latter case, we prove a sharpness result showing that for certain classes of prediction problems, the prediction intervals cannot possibly be tightened. We verify the validity and performance of the new methods via simulation studies and apply them to analyze real datasets.
This PhD thesis contains several contributions to the field of statistical causal modeling. Statistical causal models are statistical models embedded with causal assumptions that allow for the inference and reasoning about the behavior of stochastic systems affected by external manipulation (interventions). This thesis contributes to the research areas concerning the estimation of causal effects, causal structure learning, and distributionally robust (out-of-distribution generalizing) prediction methods. We present novel and consistent linear and non-linear causal effects estimators in instrumental variable settings that employ data-dependent mean squared prediction error regularization. Our proposed estimators show, in certain settings, mean squared error improvements compared to both canonical and state-of-the-art estimators. We show that recent research on distributionally robust prediction methods has connections to well-studied estimators from econometrics. This connection leads us to prove that general K-class estimators possess distributional robustness properties. We, furthermore, propose a general framework for distributional robustness with respect to intervention-induced distributions. In this framework, we derive sufficient conditions for the identifiability of distributionally robust prediction methods and present impossibility results that show the necessity of several of these conditions. We present a new structure learning method applicable in additive noise models with directed trees as causal graphs. We prove consistency in a vanishing identifiability setup and provide a method for testing substructure hypotheses with asymptotic family-wise error control that remains valid post-selection. Finally, we present heuristic ideas for learning summary graphs of nonlinear time-series models.
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used for the hidden nodes that process the underlying asset price. In addition, financial conditions, such as the absence of arbitrage, the boundaries and the asymptotic slope, are embedded into the loss function. This is one of the very first studies which discuss a methodological framework that incorporates prior financial domain knowledge into neural network architecture design and model training. The proposed model outperforms the benchmarked models with the option data on the S&P 500 index over 20 years. More importantly, the domain knowledge is satisfied empirically, showing the model is consistent with the existing financial theories and conditions related to implied volatility surface.
The remarkable practical success of deep learning has revealed some major surprises from a theoretical perspective. In particular, simple gradient methods easily find near-optimal solutions to non-convex optimization problems, and despite giving a near-perfect fit to training data without any explicit effort to control model complexity, these methods exhibit excellent predictive accuracy. We conjecture that specific principles underlie these phenomena: that overparametrization allows gradient methods to find interpolating solutions, that these methods implicitly impose regularization, and that overparametrization leads to benign overfitting. We survey recent theoretical progress that provides examples illustrating these principles in simpler settings. We first review classical uniform convergence results and why they fall short of explaining aspects of the behavior of deep learning methods. We give examples of implicit regularization in simple settings, where gradient methods lead to minimal norm functions that perfectly fit the training data. Then we review prediction methods that exhibit benign overfitting, focusing on regression problems with quadratic loss. For these methods, we can decompose the prediction rule into a simple component that is useful for prediction and a spiky component that is useful for overfitting but, in a favorable setting, does not harm prediction accuracy. We focus specifically on the linear regime for neural networks, where the network can be approximated by a linear model. In this regime, we demonstrate the success of gradient flow, and we consider benign overfitting with two-layer networks, giving an exact asymptotic analysis that precisely demonstrates the impact of overparametrization. We conclude by highlighting the key challenges that arise in extending these insights to realistic deep learning settings.
Matter evolved under influence of gravity from minuscule density fluctuations. Non-perturbative structure formed hierarchically over all scales, and developed non-Gaussian features in the Universe, known as the Cosmic Web. To fully understand the structure formation of the Universe is one of the holy grails of modern astrophysics. Astrophysicists survey large volumes of the Universe and employ a large ensemble of computer simulations to compare with the observed data in order to extract the full information of our own Universe. However, to evolve trillions of galaxies over billions of years even with the simplest physics is a daunting task. We build a deep neural network, the Deep Density Displacement Model (hereafter D$^3$M), to predict the non-linear structure formation of the Universe from simple linear perturbation theory. Our extensive analysis, demonstrates that D$^3$M outperforms the second order perturbation theory (hereafter 2LPT), the commonly used fast approximate simulation method, in point-wise comparison, 2-point correlation, and 3-point correlation. We also show that D$^3$M is able to accurately extrapolate far beyond its training data, and predict structure formation for significantly different cosmological parameters. Our study proves, for the first time, that deep learning is a practical and accurate alternative to approximate simulations of the gravitational structure formation of the Universe.
Developing classification algorithms that are fair with respect to sensitive attributes of the data has become an important problem due to the growing deployment of classification algorithms in various social contexts. Several recent works have focused on fairness with respect to a specific metric, modeled the corresponding fair classification problem as a constrained optimization problem, and developed tailored algorithms to solve them. Despite this, there still remain important metrics for which we do not have fair classifiers and many of the aforementioned algorithms do not come with theoretical guarantees; perhaps because the resulting optimization problem is non-convex. The main contribution of this paper is a new meta-algorithm for classification that takes as input a large class of fairness constraints, with respect to multiple non-disjoint sensitive attributes, and which comes with provable guarantees. This is achieved by first developing a meta-algorithm for a large family of classification problems with convex constraints, and then showing that classification problems with general types of fairness constraints can be reduced to those in this family. We present empirical results that show that our algorithm can achieve near-perfect fairness with respect to various fairness metrics, and that the loss in accuracy due to the imposed fairness constraints is often small. Overall, this work unifies several prior works on fair classification, presents a practical algorithm with theoretical guarantees, and can handle fairness metrics that were previously not possible.
We provide initial seedings to the Quick Shift clustering algorithm, which approximate the locally high-density regions of the data. Such seedings act as more stable and expressive cluster-cores than the singleton modes found by Quick Shift. We establish statistical consistency guarantees for this modification. We then show strong clustering performance on real datasets as well as promising applications to image segmentation.
We develop an approach to risk minimization and stochastic optimization that provides a convex surrogate for variance, allowing near-optimal and computationally efficient trading between approximation and estimation error. Our approach builds off of techniques for distributionally robust optimization and Owen's empirical likelihood, and we provide a number of finite-sample and asymptotic results characterizing the theoretical performance of the estimator. In particular, we show that our procedure comes with certificates of optimality, achieving (in some scenarios) faster rates of convergence than empirical risk minimization by virtue of automatically balancing bias and variance. We give corroborating empirical evidence showing that in practice, the estimator indeed trades between variance and absolute performance on a training sample, improving out-of-sample (test) performance over standard empirical risk minimization for a number of classification problems.
小貼士
登錄享
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191