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Exploration and credit assignment under sparse rewards are still challenging problems. We argue that these challenges arise in part due to the intrinsic rigidity of operating at the level of actions. Actions can precisely define how to perform an activity but are ill-suited to describe what activity to perform. Instead, causal effects are inherently composable and temporally abstract, making them ideal for descriptive tasks. By leveraging a hierarchy of causal effects, this study aims to expedite the learning of task-specific behavior and aid exploration. Borrowing counterfactual and normality measures from causal literature, we disentangle controllable effects from effects caused by other dynamics of the environment. We propose CEHRL, a hierarchical method that models the distribution of controllable effects using a Variational Autoencoder. This distribution is used by a high-level policy to 1) explore the environment via random effect exploration so that novel effects are continuously discovered and learned, and to 2) learn task-specific behavior by prioritizing the effects that maximize a given reward function. In comparison to exploring with random actions, experimental results show that random effect exploration is a more efficient mechanism and that by assigning credit to few effects rather than many actions, CEHRL learns tasks more rapidly.

Bayesian nonparametric methods are a popular choice for analysing survival data due to their ability to flexibly model the distribution of survival times. These methods typically employ a nonparametric prior on the survival function that is conjugate with respect to right-censored data. Eliciting these priors, particularly in the presence of covariates, can be challenging and inference typically relies on computationally intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes. In this paper, we build on recent work that recasts Bayesian inference as assigning a predictive distribution on the unseen values of a population conditional on the observed samples, thus avoiding the need to specify a complex prior. We describe a copula-based predictive update which admits a scalable sequential importance sampling algorithm to perform inference that properly accounts for right-censoring. We provide theoretical justification through an extension of Doob's consistency theorem and illustrate the method on a number of simulated and real data sets, including an example with covariates. Our approach enables analysts to perform Bayesian nonparametric inference through only the specification of a predictive distribution.

Bayesian likelihood-free inference, which is used to perform Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, enjoys an increasing number of important scientific applications. However, many aspects of a Bayesian analysis become more challenging in the likelihood-free setting. One example of this is prior-data conflict checking, where the goal is to assess whether the information in the data and the prior are inconsistent. Conflicts of this kind are important to detect, since they may reveal problems in an investigator's understanding of what are relevant values of the parameters, and can result in sensitivity of Bayesian inferences to the prior. Here we consider methods for prior-data conflict checking which are applicable regardless of whether the likelihood is tractable or not. In constructing our checks, we consider checking statistics based on prior-to-posterior Kullback-Leibler divergences. The checks are implemented using mixture approximations to the posterior distribution and closed-form approximations to Kullback-Leibler divergences for mixtures, which make Monte Carlo approximation of reference distributions for calibration computationally feasible. When prior-data conflicts occur, it is useful to consider weakly informative prior specifications in alternative analyses as part of a sensitivity analysis. As a main application of our methodology, we develop a technique for searching for weakly informative priors in likelihood-free inference, where the notion of a weakly informative prior is formalized using prior-data conflict checks. The methods are demonstrated in three examples.

A burgeoning paradigm in algorithm design is the field of algorithms with predictions, in which algorithms are designed to take advantage of a possibly-imperfect prediction of some aspect of the problem. While much work has focused on using predictions to improve competitive ratios, running times, or other performance measures, less effort has been devoted to the question of how to obtain the predictions themselves, especially in the critical online setting. We introduce a general design approach for algorithms that learn predictors: (1) identify a functional dependence of the performance measure on the prediction quality, and (2) apply techniques from online learning to learn predictors against adversarial instances, tune robustness-consistency trade-offs, and obtain new statistical guarantees. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach at deriving learning algorithms by analyzing methods for bipartite matching, page migration, ski-rental, and job scheduling. In the first and last settings we improve upon existing learning-theoretic results by deriving online results, obtaining better or more general statistical guarantees, and utilizing a much simpler analysis, while in the second and fourth we provide the first learning-theoretic guarantees.

We propose a computationally efficient method to construct nonparametric, heteroscedastic prediction bands for uncertainty quantification, with or without any user-specified predictive model. Our approach provides an alternative to the now-standard conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification, with novel theoretical insights and computational advantages. The data-adaptive prediction band is universally applicable with minimal distributional assumptions, has strong non-asymptotic coverage properties, and is easy to implement using standard convex programs. Our approach can be viewed as a novel variance interpolation with confidence and further leverages techniques from semi-definite programming and sum-of-squares optimization. Theoretical and numerical performances for the proposed approach for uncertainty quantification are analyzed.

Preferential sampling provides a formal modeling specification to capture the effect of bias in a set of sampling locations on inference when a geostatistical model is used to explain observed responses at the sampled locations. In particular, it enables modification of spatial prediction adjusted for the bias. Its original presentation in the literature addressed assessment of the presence of such sampling bias while follow on work focused on regression specification to improve spatial interpolation under such bias. All of the work in the literature to date considers the case of a univariate response variable at each location, either continuous or modeled through a latent continuous variable. The contribution here is to extend the notion of preferential sampling to the case of bivariate response at each location. This exposes sampling scenarios where both responses are observed at a given location as well as scenarios where, for some locations, only one of the responses is recorded. That is, there may be different sampling bias for one response than for the other. It leads to assessing the impact of such bias on co-kriging. It also exposes the possibility that preferential sampling can bias inference regarding dependence between responses at a location. We develop the idea of bivariate preferential sampling through various model specifications and illustrate the effect of these specifications on prediction and dependence behavior. We do this both through simulation examples as well as with a forestry dataset that provides mean diameter at breast height (MDBH) and trees per hectare (TPH) as the point-referenced bivariate responses.

Multi-armed bandit algorithms minimize experimentation costs required to converge on optimal behavior. They do so by rapidly adapting experimentation effort away from poorly performing actions as feedback is observed. But this desirable feature makes them sensitive to confounding, which is the primary concern underlying classical randomized controlled trials. We highlight, for instance, that popular bandit algorithms cannot address the problem of identifying the best action when day-of-week effects may confound inferences. In response, this paper proposes deconfounded Thompson sampling, which makes simple, but critical, modifications to the way Thompson sampling is usually applied. Theoretical guarantees suggest the algorithm strikes a delicate balance between adaptivity and robustness to confounding. It attains asymptotic lower bounds on the number of samples required to confidently identify the best action -- suggesting optimal adaptivity -- but also satisfies strong performance guarantees in the presence of day-of-week effects and delayed observations -- suggesting unusual robustness. At the core of the paper is a new model of contextual bandit experiments in which issues of delayed learning and distribution shift arise organically.

We study automated intrusion prevention using reinforcement learning. Following a novel approach, we formulate the problem of intrusion prevention as an (optimal) multiple stopping problem. This formulation gives us insight into the structure of optimal policies, which we show to have threshold properties. For most practical cases, it is not feasible to obtain an optimal defender policy using dynamic programming. We therefore develop a reinforcement learning approach to approximate an optimal policy. Our method for learning and validating policies includes two systems: a simulation system where defender policies are incrementally learned and an emulation system where statistics are produced that drive simulation runs and where learned policies are evaluated. We show that our approach can produce effective defender policies for a practical IT infrastructure of limited size. Inspection of the learned policies confirms that they exhibit threshold properties.

Many tasks in natural language processing can be viewed as multi-label classification problems. However, most of the existing models are trained with the standard cross-entropy loss function and use a fixed prediction policy (e.g., a threshold of 0.5) for all the labels, which completely ignores the complexity and dependencies among different labels. In this paper, we propose a meta-learning method to capture these complex label dependencies. More specifically, our method utilizes a meta-learner to jointly learn the training policies and prediction policies for different labels. The training policies are then used to train the classifier with the cross-entropy loss function, and the prediction policies are further implemented for prediction. Experimental results on fine-grained entity typing and text classification demonstrate that our proposed method can obtain more accurate multi-label classification results.

Meta-learning is a powerful tool that builds on multi-task learning to learn how to quickly adapt a model to new tasks. In the context of reinforcement learning, meta-learning algorithms can acquire reinforcement learning procedures to solve new problems more efficiently by meta-learning prior tasks. The performance of meta-learning algorithms critically depends on the tasks available for meta-training: in the same way that supervised learning algorithms generalize best to test points drawn from the same distribution as the training points, meta-learning methods generalize best to tasks from the same distribution as the meta-training tasks. In effect, meta-reinforcement learning offloads the design burden from algorithm design to task design. If we can automate the process of task design as well, we can devise a meta-learning algorithm that is truly automated. In this work, we take a step in this direction, proposing a family of unsupervised meta-learning algorithms for reinforcement learning. We describe a general recipe for unsupervised meta-reinforcement learning, and describe an effective instantiation of this approach based on a recently proposed unsupervised exploration technique and model-agnostic meta-learning. We also discuss practical and conceptual considerations for developing unsupervised meta-learning methods. Our experimental results demonstrate that unsupervised meta-reinforcement learning effectively acquires accelerated reinforcement learning procedures without the need for manual task design, significantly exceeds the performance of learning from scratch, and even matches performance of meta-learning methods that use hand-specified task distributions.