We propose a computationally efficient method to construct nonparametric, heteroscedastic prediction bands for uncertainty quantification, with or without any user-specified predictive model. Our approach provides an alternative to the now-standard conformal prediction for uncertainty quantification, with novel theoretical insights and computational advantages. The data-adaptive prediction band is universally applicable with minimal distributional assumptions, has strong non-asymptotic coverage properties, and is easy to implement using standard convex programs. Our approach can be viewed as a novel variance interpolation with confidence and further leverages techniques from semi-definite programming and sum-of-squares optimization. Theoretical and numerical performances for the proposed approach for uncertainty quantification are analyzed.
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We consider the Cauchy problem for the Helmholtz equation with a domain in R^d, d>2 with N cylindrical outlets to infinity with bounded inclusions in R^{d-1}. Cauchy data are prescribed on the boundary of the bounded domains and the aim is to find solution on the unbounded part of the boundary. In 1989, Kozlov and Maz'ya proposed an alternating iterative method for solving Cauchy problems associated with elliptic,self-adjoint and positive-definite operators in bounded domains. Different variants of this method for solving Cauchy problems associated with Helmholtz-type operators exists. We consider the variant proposed by Mpinganzima et al. for bounded domains and derive the necessary conditions for the convergence of the procedure in unbounded domains. For the numerical implementation, a finite difference method is used to solve the problem in a simple rectangular domain in R^2 that represent a truncated infinite strip. The numerical results shows that by appropriate truncation of the domain and with appropriate choice of the Robin parameters, the Robin-Dirichlet alternating iterative procedure is convergent.
This paper presents a control framework on Lie groups by designing the control objective in its Lie algebra. Control on Lie groups is challenging due to its nonlinear nature and difficulties in system parameterization. Existing methods to design the control objective on a Lie group and then derive the gradient for controller design are non-trivial and can result in slow convergence in tracking control. We show that with a proper left-invariant metric, setting the gradient of the cost function as the tracking error in the Lie algebra leads to a quadratic Lyapunov function that enables globally exponential convergence. In the PD control case, we show that our controller can maintain an exponential convergence rate even when the initial error is approaching $\pi$ in SO(3). We also show the merit of this proposed framework in trajectory optimization. The proposed cost function enables the iterative Linear Quadratic Regulator (iLQR) to converge much faster than the Differential Dynamic Programming (DDP) with a well-adopted cost function when the initial trajectory is poorly initialized on SO(3).
We employ kernel-based approaches that use samples from a probability distribution to approximate a Kolmogorov operator on a manifold. The self-tuning variable-bandwidth kernel method [Berry & Harlim, Appl. Comput. Harmon. Anal., 40(1):68--96, 2016] computes a large, sparse matrix that approximates the differential operator. Here, we use the eigendecomposition of the discretization to (i) invert the operator, solving a differential equation, and (ii) represent gradient vector fields on the manifold. These methods only require samples from the underlying distribution and, therefore, can be applied in high dimensions or on geometrically complex manifolds when spatial discretizations are not available. We also employ an efficient $k$-$d$ tree algorithm to compute the sparse kernel matrix, which is a computational bottleneck.
We provide a decision theoretic analysis of bandit experiments. The setting corresponds to a dynamic programming problem, but solving this directly is typically infeasible. Working within the framework of diffusion asymptotics, we define suitable notions of asymptotic Bayes and minimax risk for bandit experiments. For normally distributed rewards, the minimal Bayes risk can be characterized as the solution to a nonlinear second-order partial differential equation (PDE). Using a limit of experiments approach, we show that this PDE characterization also holds asymptotically under both parametric and non-parametric distribution of the rewards. The approach further describes the state variables it is asymptotically sufficient to restrict attention to, and therefore suggests a practical strategy for dimension reduction. The upshot is that we can approximate the dynamic programming problem defining the bandit experiment with a PDE which can be efficiently solved using sparse matrix routines. We derive the optimal Bayes and minimax policies from the numerical solutions to these equations. The proposed policies substantially dominate existing methods such as Thompson sampling. The framework also allows for substantial generalizations to the bandit problem such as time discounting and pure exploration motives.
Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a method to obtain an area-level prediction region for a future observation which mitigates this trade-off. The proposed method takes a conformal prediction approach in which the conformity measure is the posterior predictive density of a working model that incorporates indirect information. The resulting prediction region has guaranteed frequentist coverage regardless of the working model, and, if the working model assumptions are accurate, the region has minimum expected volume compared to other regions with the same coverage rate. When constructed under a normal working model, we prove such a prediction region is an interval and construct an efficient algorithm to obtain the exact interval. We illustrate the performance of our method through simulation studies and an application to EPA radon survey data.
Multigrid is a powerful solver for large-scale linear systems arising from discretized partial differential equations. The convergence theory of multigrid methods for symmetric positive definite problems has been well developed over the past decades, while, for nonsymmetric problems, such theory is still not mature. As a foundation for multigrid analysis, two-grid convergence theory plays an important role in motivating multigrid algorithms. Regarding two-grid methods for nonsymmetric problems, most previous works focus on the spectral radius of iteration matrix or rely on convergence measures that are typically difficult to compute in practice. Moreover, the existing results are confined to two-grid methods with exact solution of the coarse-grid system. In this paper, we analyze the convergence of a two-grid method for nonsymmetric positive definite problems (e.g., linear systems arising from the discretizations of convection-diffusion equations). In the case of exact coarse solver, we establish an elegant identity for characterizing two-grid convergence factor, which is measured by a smoother-induced norm. The identity can be conveniently used to derive a class of optimal restriction operators and analyze how the convergence factor is influenced by restriction. More generally, we present some convergence estimates for an inexact variant of the two-grid method, in which both linear and nonlinear coarse solvers are considered.
We introduce Universal Solution Manifold Network (USM-Net), a novel surrogate model, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which applies to differential problems whose solution depends on physical and geometrical parameters. Our method employs a mesh-less architecture, thus overcoming the limitations associated with image segmentation and mesh generation required by traditional discretization methods. Indeed, we encode geometrical variability through scalar landmarks, such as coordinates of points of interest. In biomedical applications, these landmarks can be inexpensively processed from clinical images. Our approach is non-intrusive and modular, as we select a data-driven loss function. The latter can also be modified by considering additional constraints, thus leveraging available physical knowledge. Our approach can also accommodate a universal coordinate system, which supports the USM-Net in learning the correspondence between points belonging to different geometries, boosting prediction accuracy on unobserved geometries. Finally, we present two numerical test cases in computational fluid dynamics involving variable Reynolds numbers as well as computational domains of variable shape. The results show that our method allows for inexpensive but accurate approximations of velocity and pressure, avoiding computationally expensive image segmentation, mesh generation, or re-training for every new instance of physical parameters and shape of the domain.
One of the most important problems in system identification and statistics is how to estimate the unknown parameters of a given model. Optimization methods and specialized procedures, such as Empirical Minimization (EM) can be used in case the likelihood function can be computed. For situations where one can only simulate from a parametric model, but the likelihood is difficult or impossible to evaluate, a technique known as the Two-Stage (TS) Approach can be applied to obtain reliable parametric estimates. Unfortunately, there is currently a lack of theoretical justification for TS. In this paper, we propose a statistical decision-theoretical derivation of TS, which leads to Bayesian and Minimax estimators. We also show how to apply the TS approach on models for independent and identically distributed samples, by computing quantiles of the data as a first step, and using a linear function as the second stage. The proposed method is illustrated via numerical simulations.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
Dynamic programming (DP) solves a variety of structured combinatorial problems by iteratively breaking them down into smaller subproblems. In spite of their versatility, DP algorithms are usually non-differentiable, which hampers their use as a layer in neural networks trained by backpropagation. To address this issue, we propose to smooth the max operator in the dynamic programming recursion, using a strongly convex regularizer. This allows to relax both the optimal value and solution of the original combinatorial problem, and turns a broad class of DP algorithms into differentiable operators. Theoretically, we provide a new probabilistic perspective on backpropagating through these DP operators, and relate them to inference in graphical models. We derive two particular instantiations of our framework, a smoothed Viterbi algorithm for sequence prediction and a smoothed DTW algorithm for time-series alignment. We showcase these instantiations on two structured prediction tasks and on structured and sparse attention for neural machine translation.
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