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Causal discovery for purely observational, categorical data is a long-standing challenging problem. Unlike continuous data, the vast majority of existing methods for categorical data focus on inferring the Markov equivalence class only, which leaves the direction of some causal relationships undetermined. This paper proposes an identifiable ordinal causal discovery method that exploits the ordinal information contained in many real-world applications to uniquely identify the causal structure. The proposed method is applicable beyond ordinal data via data discretization. Through real-world and synthetic experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed ordinal causal discovery method combined with simple score-and-search algorithms has favorable and robust performance compared to state-of-the-art alternative methods in both ordinal categorical and non-categorical data. An accompanied R package OCD is freely available at //web.stat.tamu.edu/~yni/files/OCD_0.1.0.tar.gz.

This paper studies treatment effect models in which individuals are classified into unobserved groups based on heterogeneous treatment rules. Using a finite mixture approach, we propose a marginal treatment effect (MTE) framework in which the treatment choice and outcome equations can be heterogeneous across groups. Under the availability of instrumental variables specific to each group, we show that the MTE for each group can be separately identified. Based on our identification result, we propose a two-step semiparametric procedure for estimating the group-wise MTE. We illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method with an application to economic returns to college education.

We develop a new measure of the exploration/exploitation trade-off in infinite-horizon reinforcement learning problems called the occupancy information ratio (OIR), which is comprised of a ratio between the infinite-horizon average cost of a policy and the entropy of its long-term state occupancy measure. The OIR ensures that no matter how many trajectories an RL agent traverses or how well it learns to minimize cost, it maintains a healthy skepticism about its environment, in that it defines an optimal policy which induces a high-entropy occupancy measure. Different from earlier information ratio notions, OIR is amenable to direct policy search over parameterized families, and exhibits hidden quasiconcavity through invocation of the perspective transformation. This feature ensures that under appropriate policy parameterizations, the OIR optimization problem has no spurious stationary points, despite the overall problem's nonconvexity. We develop for the first time policy gradient and actor-critic algorithms for OIR optimization based upon a new entropy gradient theorem, and establish both asymptotic and non-asymptotic convergence results with global optimality guarantees. In experiments, these methodologies outperform several deep RL baselines in problems with sparse rewards, where many trajectories may be uninformative and skepticism about the environment is crucial to success.

Semiparametric joint models of longitudinal and competing risks data are computationally costly and their current implementations do not scale well to massive biobank data. This paper identifies and addresses some key computational barriers in a semiparametric joint model for longitudinal and competing risks survival data. By developing and implementing customized linear scan algorithms, we reduce the computational complexities from $O(n^2)$ or $O(n^3)$ to $O(n)$ in various components including numerical integration, risk set calculation, and standard error estimation, where $n$ is the number of subjects. Using both simulated and real world biobank data, we demonstrate that these linear scan algorithms generate drastic speed-up of up to hundreds of thousands fold when $n>10^4$, sometimes reducing the run-time from days to minutes. We have developed an R-package, FastJM, based on the proposed algorithms for joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data with and without competing risks, and made it publicly available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) at \url{//CRAN.R-project.org/package=FastJM}.

In health-pollution cohort studies, accurate predictions of pollutant concentrations at new locations are needed, since the locations of fixed monitoring sites and study participants are often spatially misaligned. For multi-pollution data, principal component analysis (PCA) is often incorporated to obtain low-rank (LR) structure of the data prior to spatial prediction. Recently developed predictive PCA modifies the traditional algorithm to improve the overall predictive performance by leveraging both LR and spatial structures within the data. However, predictive PCA requires complete data or an initial imputation step. Nonparametric imputation techniques without accounting for spatial information may distort the underlying structure of the data, and thus further reduce the predictive performance. We propose a convex optimization problem inspired by the LR matrix completion framework and develop a proximal algorithm to solve it. Missing data are imputed and handled concurrently within the algorithm, which eliminates the necessity of a separate imputation step. We show that our algorithm has low computational burden and leads to reliable predictive performance as the severity of missing data increases.

A determinantal point process (DPP) on a collection of $M$ items is a model, parameterized by a symmetric kernel matrix, that assigns a probability to every subset of those items. Recent work shows that removing the kernel symmetry constraint, yielding nonsymmetric DPPs (NDPPs), can lead to significant predictive performance gains for machine learning applications. However, existing work leaves open the question of scalable NDPP sampling. There is only one known DPP sampling algorithm, based on Cholesky decomposition, that can directly apply to NDPPs as well. Unfortunately, its runtime is cubic in $M$, and thus does not scale to large item collections. In this work, we first note that this algorithm can be transformed into a linear-time one for kernels with low-rank structure. Furthermore, we develop a scalable sublinear-time rejection sampling algorithm by constructing a novel proposal distribution. Additionally, we show that imposing certain structural constraints on the NDPP kernel enables us to bound the rejection rate in a way that depends only on the kernel rank. In our experiments we compare the speed of all of these samplers for a variety of real-world tasks.

We study the offline meta-reinforcement learning (OMRL) problem, a paradigm which enables reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms to quickly adapt to unseen tasks without any interactions with the environments, making RL truly practical in many real-world applications. This problem is still not fully understood, for which two major challenges need to be addressed. First, offline RL usually suffers from bootstrapping errors of out-of-distribution state-actions which leads to divergence of value functions. Second, meta-RL requires efficient and robust task inference learned jointly with control policy. In this work, we enforce behavior regularization on learned policy as a general approach to offline RL, combined with a deterministic context encoder for efficient task inference. We propose a novel negative-power distance metric on bounded context embedding space, whose gradients propagation is detached from the Bellman backup. We provide analysis and insight showing that some simple design choices can yield substantial improvements over recent approaches involving meta-RL and distance metric learning. To the best of our knowledge, our method is the first model-free and end-to-end OMRL algorithm, which is computationally efficient and demonstrated to outperform prior algorithms on several meta-RL benchmarks.

Most of previous machine learning algorithms are proposed based on the i.i.d. hypothesis. However, this ideal assumption is often violated in real applications, where selection bias may arise between training and testing process. Moreover, in many scenarios, the testing data is not even available during the training process, which makes the traditional methods like transfer learning infeasible due to their need on prior of test distribution. Therefore, how to address the agnostic selection bias for robust model learning is of paramount importance for both academic research and real applications. In this paper, under the assumption that causal relationships among variables are robust across domains, we incorporate causal technique into predictive modeling and propose a novel Causally Regularized Logistic Regression (CRLR) algorithm by jointly optimize global confounder balancing and weighted logistic regression. Global confounder balancing helps to identify causal features, whose causal effect on outcome are stable across domains, then performing logistic regression on those causal features constructs a robust predictive model against the agnostic bias. To validate the effectiveness of our CRLR algorithm, we conduct comprehensive experiments on both synthetic and real world datasets. Experimental results clearly demonstrate that our CRLR algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, and the interpretability of our method can be fully depicted by the feature visualization.

Deep reinforcement learning (RL) methods generally engage in exploratory behavior through noise injection in the action space. An alternative is to add noise directly to the agent's parameters, which can lead to more consistent exploration and a richer set of behaviors. Methods such as evolutionary strategies use parameter perturbations, but discard all temporal structure in the process and require significantly more samples. Combining parameter noise with traditional RL methods allows to combine the best of both worlds. We demonstrate that both off- and on-policy methods benefit from this approach through experimental comparison of DQN, DDPG, and TRPO on high-dimensional discrete action environments as well as continuous control tasks. Our results show that RL with parameter noise learns more efficiently than traditional RL with action space noise and evolutionary strategies individually.

Discrete random structures are important tools in Bayesian nonparametrics and the resulting models have proven effective in density estimation, clustering, topic modeling and prediction, among others. In this paper, we consider nested processes and study the dependence structures they induce. Dependence ranges between homogeneity, corresponding to full exchangeability, and maximum heterogeneity, corresponding to (unconditional) independence across samples. The popular nested Dirichlet process is shown to degenerate to the fully exchangeable case when there are ties across samples at the observed or latent level. To overcome this drawback, inherent to nesting general discrete random measures, we introduce a novel class of latent nested processes. These are obtained by adding common and group-specific completely random measures and, then, normalising to yield dependent random probability measures. We provide results on the partition distributions induced by latent nested processes, and develop an Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler for Bayesian inferences. A test for distributional homogeneity across groups is obtained as a by product. The results and their inferential implications are showcased on synthetic and real data.