Semiparametric joint models of longitudinal and competing risks data are computationally costly and their current implementations do not scale well to massive biobank data. This paper identifies and addresses some key computational barriers in a semiparametric joint model for longitudinal and competing risks survival data. By developing and implementing customized linear scan algorithms, we reduce the computational complexities from $O(n^2)$ or $O(n^3)$ to $O(n)$ in various components including numerical integration, risk set calculation, and standard error estimation, where $n$ is the number of subjects. Using both simulated and real world biobank data, we demonstrate that these linear scan algorithms generate drastic speed-up of up to hundreds of thousands fold when $n>10^4$, sometimes reducing the run-time from days to minutes. We have developed an R-package, FastJM, based on the proposed algorithms for joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data with and without competing risks, and made it publicly available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN) at \url{//CRAN.R-project.org/package=FastJM}.
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The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular deep latent variable model used to analyse high-dimensional datasets by learning a low-dimensional latent representation of the data. It simultaneously learns a generative model and an inference network to perform approximate posterior inference. Recently proposed extensions to VAEs that can handle temporal and longitudinal data have applications in healthcare, behavioural modelling, and predictive maintenance. However, these extensions do not account for heterogeneous data (i.e., data comprising of continuous and discrete attributes), which is common in many real-life applications. In this work, we propose the heterogeneous longitudinal VAE (HL-VAE) that extends the existing temporal and longitudinal VAEs to heterogeneous data. HL-VAE provides efficient inference for high-dimensional datasets and includes likelihood models for continuous, count, categorical, and ordinal data while accounting for missing observations. We demonstrate our model's efficacy through simulated as well as clinical datasets, and show that our proposed model achieves competitive performance in missing value imputation and predictive accuracy.
We study streaming algorithms in the white-box adversarial model, where the stream is chosen adaptively by an adversary who observes the entire internal state of the algorithm at each time step. We show that nontrivial algorithms are still possible. We first give a randomized algorithm for the $L_1$-heavy hitters problem that outperforms the optimal deterministic Misra-Gries algorithm on long streams. If the white-box adversary is computationally bounded, we use cryptographic techniques to reduce the memory of our $L_1$-heavy hitters algorithm even further and to design a number of additional algorithms for graph, string, and linear algebra problems. The existence of such algorithms is surprising, as the streaming algorithm does not even have a secret key in this model, i.e., its state is entirely known to the adversary. One algorithm we design is for estimating the number of distinct elements in a stream with insertions and deletions achieving a multiplicative approximation and sublinear space; such an algorithm is impossible for deterministic algorithms. We also give a general technique that translates any two-player deterministic communication lower bound to a lower bound for {\it randomized} algorithms robust to a white-box adversary. In particular, our results show that for all $p\ge 0$, there exists a constant $C_p>1$ such that any $C_p$-approximation algorithm for $F_p$ moment estimation in insertion-only streams with a white-box adversary requires $\Omega(n)$ space for a universe of size $n$. Similarly, there is a constant $C>1$ such that any $C$-approximation algorithm in an insertion-only stream for matrix rank requires $\Omega(n)$ space with a white-box adversary. Our algorithmic results based on cryptography thus show a separation between computationally bounded and unbounded adversaries. (Abstract shortened to meet arXiv limits.)
While algorithms for planar graphs have received a lot of attention, few papers have focused on the additional power that one gets from assuming an embedding of the graph is available. While in the classic sequential setting, this assumption gives no additional power (as a planar graph can be embedded in linear time), we show that this is far from being the case in other settings. We assume that the embedding is straight-line, but our methods also generalize to non-straight-line embeddings. Specifically, we focus on sublinear-time computation and massively parallel computation (MPC). Our main technical contribution is a sublinear-time algorithm for computing a relaxed version of an $r$-division. We then show how this can be used to estimate Lipschitz additive graph parameters. This includes, for example, the maximum matching, maximum independent set, or the minimum dominating set. We also show how this can be used to solve some property testing problems with respect to the vertex edit distance. In the second part of our paper, we show an MPC algorithm that computes an $r$-division of the input graph. We show how this can be used to solve various classical graph problems with space per machine of $O(n^{2/3+\epsilon})$ for some $\epsilon>0$, and while performing $O(1)$ rounds. This includes for example approximate shortest paths or the minimum spanning tree. Our results also imply an improved MPC algorithm for Euclidean minimum spanning tree.
In recent years, fuzz testing has benefited from increased computational power and important algorithmic advances, leading to systems that have discovered many critical bugs and vulnerabilities in production software. Despite these successes, not all applications can be fuzzed efficiently. In particular, stateful applications such as network protocol implementations are constrained by their low fuzzing throughput and the need to develop fuzzing harnesses that reset their state and isolate their side effects. In this paper, we present SnapFuzz, a novel fuzzing framework for network applications. SnapFuzz offers a robust architecture that transforms slow asynchronous network communication into fast synchronous communication, snapshots the target at the latest point at which it is safe to do so, speeds up all file operations by redirecting them to a custom in-memory filesystem, and removes the need for many fragile modifications, such as configuring time delays or writing clean-up scripts, together with several other improvements. Using SnapFuzz, we fuzzed five popular networking applications: LightFTP, TinyDTLS, Dnsmasq, LIVE555 and Dcmqrscp. We report impressive performance speedups of 62.8x, 41.2x, 30.6x, 24.6x, and 8.4x, respectively, with significantly simpler fuzzing harnesses in all cases. Through its performance advantage, SnapFuzz has also found 12 extra crashes compared to AFLNet in these applications.
The instrumental variable method is widely used in the health and social sciences for identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of potentially unmeasured confounding. In order to improve efficiency, multiple instruments are routinely used, leading to concerns about bias due to possible violation of the instrumental variable assumptions. To address this concern, we introduce a new class of g-estimators that are guaranteed to remain consistent and asymptotically normal for the causal effect of interest provided that a set of at least $\gamma$ out of $K$ candidate instruments are valid, for $\gamma\leq K$ set by the analyst ex ante, without necessarily knowing the identities of the valid and invalid instruments. We provide formal semiparametric efficiency theory supporting our results. Both simulation studies and applications to the UK Biobank data demonstrate the superior empirical performance of our estimators compared to competing methods.
We study efficient estimation of an interventional mean associated with a point exposure treatment under a causal graphical model represented by a directed acyclic graph without hidden variables. Under such a model, it may happen that a subset of the variables are uninformative in that failure to measure them neither precludes identification of the interventional mean nor changes the semiparametric variance bound for regular estimators of it. We develop a set of graphical criteria that are sound and complete for eliminating all the uninformative variables so that the cost of measuring them can be saved without sacrificing estimation efficiency, which could be useful when designing a planned observational or randomized study. Further, we construct a reduced directed acyclic graph on the set of informative variables only. We show that the interventional mean is identified from the marginal law by the g-formula (Robins, 1986) associated with the reduced graph, and the semiparametric variance bounds for estimating the interventional mean under the original and the reduced graphical model agree. This g-formula is an irreducible, efficient identifying formula in the sense that the nonparametric estimator of the formula, under regularity conditions, is asymptotically efficient under the original causal graphical model, and no formula with such property exists that only depends on a strict subset of the variables.
The simulation of multi-body systems with frictional contacts is a fundamental tool for many fields, such as robotics, computer graphics, and mechanics. Hard frictional contacts are particularly troublesome to simulate because they make the differential equations stiff, calling for computationally demanding implicit integration schemes. We suggest to tackle this issue by using exponential integrators, a long-standing class of integration schemes (first introduced in the 60's) that in recent years has enjoyed a resurgence of interest. We show that this scheme can be easily applied to multi-body systems subject to stiff viscoelastic contacts, producing accurate results at lower computational cost than \changed{classic explicit or implicit schemes}. In our tests with quadruped and biped robots, our method demonstrated stable behaviors with large time steps (10 ms) and stiff contacts ($10^5$ N/m). Its excellent properties, especially for fast and coarse simulations, make it a valuable candidate for many applications in robotics, such as simulation, Model Predictive Control, Reinforcement Learning, and controller design.
Multi-fidelity models are of great importance due to their capability of fusing information coming from different simulations and sensors. In the context of Gaussian process regression we can exploit low-fidelity models to better capture the latent manifold thus improving the accuracy of the model. We focus on the approximation of high-dimensional scalar functions with low intrinsic dimensionality. By introducing a low dimensional bias in a chain of Gaussian processes with different fidelities we can fight the curse of dimensionality affecting these kind of quantities of interest, especially for many-query applications. In particular we seek a gradient-based reduction of the parameter space through linear active subspaces or a nonlinear transformation of the input space. Then we build a low-fidelity response surface based on such reduction, thus enabling multi-fidelity Gaussian process regression without the need of running new simulations with simplified physical models. This has a great potential in the data scarcity regime affecting many engineering applications. In this work we present a new multi-fidelity approach -- starting from the preliminary analysis conducted in Romor et al. 2020 -- involving active subspaces and nonlinear level-set learning method. The proposed numerical method is tested on two high-dimensional benchmark functions, and on a more complex car aerodynamics problem. We show how a low intrinsic dimensionality bias can increase the accuracy of Gaussian process response surfaces.
Models for dependent data are distinguished by their targets of inference. Marginal models are useful when interest lies in quantifying associations averaged across a population of clusters. When the functional form of a covariate-outcome association is unknown, flexible regression methods are needed to allow for potentially non-linear relationships. We propose a novel marginal additive model (MAM) for modelling cluster-correlated data with non-linear population-averaged associations. The proposed MAM is a unified framework for estimation and uncertainty quantification of a marginal mean model, combined with inference for between-cluster variability and cluster-specific prediction. We propose a fitting algorithm that enables efficient computation of standard errors and corrects for estimation of penalty terms. We demonstrate the proposed methods in simulations and in application to (i) a longitudinal study of beaver foraging behaviour, and (ii) a spatial analysis of Loaloa infection in West Africa. R code for implementing the proposed methodology is available at //github.com/awstringer1/mam.
We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.
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