Minimization of cortical prediction errors is believed to be a key canonical computation of the cerebral cortex underlying perception, action and learning. However, it is still unclear how the cortex should form and use knowledge about uncertainty in this process of prediction error minimization. Here we derive neural dynamics minimizing prediction errors under the assumption that cortical areas must not only predict the activity in other areas and sensory streams, but also jointly estimate the precision of their predictions. This leads to a dynamic modulatory balancing of cortical streams based on context-dependent precision estimates. Moreover, the theory predicts the existence of second-order prediction errors, i.e. errors on precision estimates, computed and propagated through the cortical hierarchy alongside classical prediction errors. These second-order errors are used to learn weights of synapses responsible for precision estimation through an error-correcting synaptic learning rule. Finally, we propose a mapping of the theory to cortical circuitry.
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To form precipitation datasets that are accurate and, at the same time, have high spatial densities, data from satellites and gauges are often merged in the literature. However, uncertainty estimates for the data acquired in this manner are scarcely provided, although the importance of uncertainty quantification in predictive modelling is widely recognized. Furthermore, the benefits that machine learning can bring to the task of providing such estimates have not been broadly realized and properly explored through benchmark experiments. The present study aims at filling in this specific gap by conducting the first benchmark tests on the topic. On a large dataset that comprises 15-year-long monthly data spanning across the contiguous United States, we extensively compared six learners that are, by their construction, appropriate for predictive uncertainty quantification. These are the quantile regression (QR), quantile regression forests (QRF), generalized random forests (GRF), gradient boosting machines (GBM), light gradient boosting machines (LightGBM) and quantile regression neural networks (QRNN). The comparison referred to the competence of the learners in issuing predictive quantiles at nine levels that facilitate a good approximation of the entire predictive probability distribution, and was primarily based on the quantile and continuous ranked probability skill scores. Three types of predictor variables (i.e., satellite precipitation variables, distances between a point of interest and satellite grid points, and elevation at a point of interest) were used in the comparison and were additionally compared with each other. This additional comparison was based on the explainable machine learning concept of feature importance. The results suggest that the order from the best to the worst of the learners for the task investigated is the following: LightGBM, QRF, GRF, GBM, QRNN and QR...
We address the problem of testing conditional mean and conditional variance for non-stationary data. We build e-values and p-values for four types of non-parametric composite hypotheses with specified mean and variance as well as other conditions on the shape of the data-generating distribution. These shape conditions include symmetry, unimodality, and their combination. Using the obtained e-values and p-values, we construct tests via e-processes also known as testing by betting, as well as tests based on combining p-values. Simulation and empirical studies are conducted for a few settings of the null hypotheses, and they show that methods based on e-processes are efficient.
Inference for functional linear models in the presence of heteroscedastic errors has received insufficient attention given its practical importance; in fact, even a central limit theorem has not been studied in this case. At issue, conditional mean (projection of the slope function) estimates have complicated sampling distributions due to the infinite dimensional regressors, which create truncation bias and scaling problems that are compounded by non-constant variance under heteroscedasticity. As a foundation for distributional inference, we establish a central limit theorem for the estimated projection under general dependent errors, and subsequently we develop a paired bootstrap method to approximate sampling distributions. The proposed paired bootstrap does not follow the standard bootstrap algorithm for finite dimensional regressors, as this version fails outside of a narrow window for implementation with functional regressors. The reason owes to a bias with functional regressors in a naive bootstrap construction. Our bootstrap proposal incorporates debiasing and thereby attains much broader validity and flexibility with truncation parameters for inference under heteroscedasticity; even when the naive approach may be valid, the proposed bootstrap method performs better numerically. The bootstrap is applied to construct confidence intervals for projections and for conducting hypothesis tests for the slope function. Our theoretical results on bootstrap consistency are demonstrated through simulation studies and also illustrated with real data examples.
Over the recent past data-driven algorithms for solving stochastic optimal control problems in face of model uncertainty have become an increasingly active area of research. However, for singular controls and underlying diffusion dynamics the analysis has so far been restricted to the scalar case. In this paper we fill this gap by studying a multivariate singular control problem for reversible diffusions with controls of reflection type. Our contributions are threefold. We first explicitly determine the long-run average costs as a domain-dependent functional, showing that the control problem can be equivalently characterized as a shape optimization problem. For given diffusion dynamics, assuming the optimal domain to be strongly star-shaped, we then propose a gradient descent algorithm based on polytope approximations to numerically determine a cost-minimizing domain. Finally, we investigate data-driven solutions when the diffusion dynamics are unknown to the controller. Using techniques from nonparametric statistics for stochastic processes, we construct an optimal domain estimator, whose static regret is bounded by the minimax optimal estimation rate of the unreflected process' invariant density. In the most challenging situation, when the dynamics must be learned simultaneously to controlling the process, we develop an episodic learning algorithm to overcome the emerging exploration-exploitation dilemma and show that given the static regret as a baseline, the loss in its sublinear regret per time unit is of natural order compared to the one-dimensional case.
Numerical simulations of kinetic problems can become prohibitively expensive due to their large memory footprint and computational costs. A method that has proven to successfully reduce these costs is the dynamical low-rank approximation (DLRA). One key question when using DLRA methods is the construction of robust time integrators that preserve the invariances and associated conservation laws of the original problem. In this work, we demonstrate that the augmented basis update & Galerkin integrator (BUG) preserves solution invariances and the associated conservation laws when using a conservative truncation step and an appropriate time and space discretization. We present numerical comparisons to existing conservative integrators and discuss advantages and disadvantages
The consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for mixtures of elliptically-symmetric distributions for estimating its population version is shown, where the underlying distribution $P$ is nonparametric and does not necessarily belong to the class of mixtures on which the estimator is based. In a situation where $P$ is a mixture of well enough separated but nonparametric distributions it is shown that the components of the population version of the estimator correspond to the well separated components of $P$. This provides some theoretical justification for the use of such estimators for cluster analysis in case that $P$ has well separated subpopulations even if these subpopulations differ from what the mixture model assumes.
Nowadays, deep-learning image coding solutions have shown similar or better compression efficiency than conventional solutions based on hand-crafted transforms and spatial prediction techniques. These deep-learning codecs require a large training set of images and a training methodology to obtain a suitable model (set of parameters) for efficient compression. The training is performed with an optimization algorithm which provides a way to minimize the loss function. Therefore, the loss function plays a key role in the overall performance and includes a differentiable quality metric that attempts to mimic human perception. The main objective of this paper is to study the perceptual impact of several image quality metrics that can be used in the loss function of the training process, through a crowdsourcing subjective image quality assessment study. From this study, it is possible to conclude that the choice of the quality metric is critical for the perceptual performance of the deep-learning codec and that can vary depending on the image content.
Large datasets are often affected by cell-wise outliers in the form of missing or erroneous data. However, discarding any samples containing outliers may result in a dataset that is too small to accurately estimate the covariance matrix. Moreover, the robust procedures designed to address this problem require the invertibility of the covariance operator and thus are not effective on high-dimensional data. In this paper, we propose an unbiased estimator for the covariance in the presence of missing values that does not require any imputation step and still achieves near minimax statistical accuracy with the operator norm. We also advocate for its use in combination with cell-wise outlier detection methods to tackle cell-wise contamination in a high-dimensional and low-rank setting, where state-of-the-art methods may suffer from numerical instability and long computation times. To complement our theoretical findings, we conducted an experimental study which demonstrates the superiority of our approach over the state of the art both in low and high dimension settings.
This paper considers the extension of data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) to nonlinear systems via general basis functions. Firstly, we formulate a basis functions DeePC behavioral predictor and we identify necessary and sufficient conditions for equivalence with a corresponding basis functions multi-step identified predictor. The derived conditions yield a dynamic regularization cost function that enables a well-posed (i.e., consistent) basis functions formulation of nonlinear DeePC. To optimize computational efficiency of basis functions DeePC we further develop two alternative formulations that use a simpler, sparse regularization cost function and ridge regression, respectively. Consistency implications for Koopman DeePC as well as several methods for constructing the basis functions representation are also indicated. The effectiveness of the developed consistent basis functions DeePC formulations is illustrated on a benchmark nonlinear pendulum state-space model, for both noise free and noisy data.
Hashing has been widely used in approximate nearest search for large-scale database retrieval for its computation and storage efficiency. Deep hashing, which devises convolutional neural network architecture to exploit and extract the semantic information or feature of images, has received increasing attention recently. In this survey, several deep supervised hashing methods for image retrieval are evaluated and I conclude three main different directions for deep supervised hashing methods. Several comments are made at the end. Moreover, to break through the bottleneck of the existing hashing methods, I propose a Shadow Recurrent Hashing(SRH) method as a try. Specifically, I devise a CNN architecture to extract the semantic features of images and design a loss function to encourage similar images projected close. To this end, I propose a concept: shadow of the CNN output. During optimization process, the CNN output and its shadow are guiding each other so as to achieve the optimal solution as much as possible. Several experiments on dataset CIFAR-10 show the satisfying performance of SRH.
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