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We address the problem of testing conditional mean and conditional variance for non-stationary data. We build e-values and p-values for four types of non-parametric composite hypotheses with specified mean and variance as well as other conditions on the shape of the data-generating distribution. These shape conditions include symmetry, unimodality, and their combination. Using the obtained e-values and p-values, we construct tests via e-processes also known as testing by betting, as well as tests based on combining p-values. Simulation and empirical studies are conducted for a few settings of the null hypotheses, and they show that methods based on e-processes are efficient.

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A well-balanced second-order finite volume scheme is proposed and analyzed for a 2 X 2 system of non-linear partial differential equations which describes the dynamics of growing sandpiles created by a vertical source on a flat, bounded rectangular table in multiple dimensions. To derive a second-order scheme, we combine a MUSCL type spatial reconstruction with strong stability preserving Runge-Kutta time stepping method. The resulting scheme is ensured to be well-balanced through a modified limiting approach that allows the scheme to reduce to well-balanced first-order scheme near the steady state while maintaining the second-order accuracy away from it. The well-balanced property of the scheme is proven analytically in one dimension and demonstrated numerically in two dimensions. Additionally, numerical experiments reveal that the second-order scheme reduces finite time oscillations, takes fewer time iterations for achieving the steady state and gives sharper resolutions of the physical structure of the sandpile, as compared to the existing first-order schemes of the literature.

The coupling effects in multiphysics processes are often neglected in designing multiscale methods. The coupling may be described by a non-positive definite operator, which in turn brings significant challenges in multiscale simulations. In the paper, we develop a regularized coupling multiscale method based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) to solve coupled thermomechanical problems, and it is referred to as the coupling generalized multiscale finite element method (CGMsFEM). The method consists of defining the coupling multiscale basis functions through local regularized coupling spectral problems in each coarse-grid block, which can be implemented by a novel design of two relaxation parameters. Compared to the standard GMsFEM, the proposed method can not only accurately capture the multiscale coupling correlation effects of multiphysics problems but also greatly improve computational efficiency with fewer multiscale basis functions. In addition, the convergence analysis is also established, and the optimal error estimates are derived, where the upper bound of errors is independent of the magnitude of the relaxation coefficient. Several numerical examples for periodic, random microstructure, and random material coefficients are presented to validate the theoretical analysis. The numerical results show that the CGMsFEM shows better robustness and efficiency than uncoupled GMsFEM.

A joint mix is a random vector with a constant component-wise sum. The dependence structure of a joint mix minimizes some common objectives such as the variance of the component-wise sum, and it is regarded as a concept of extremal negative dependence. In this paper, we explore the connection between the joint mix structure and popular notions of negative dependence in statistics, such as negative correlation dependence, negative orthant dependence and negative association. A joint mix is not always negatively dependent in any of the above senses, but some natural classes of joint mixes are. We derive various necessary and sufficient conditions for a joint mix to be negatively dependent, and study the compatibility of these notions. For identical marginal distributions, we show that a negatively dependent joint mix solves a multi-marginal optimal transport problem for quadratic cost under a novel setting of uncertainty. Analysis of this optimal transport problem with heterogeneous marginals reveals a trade-off between negative dependence and the joint mix structure.

In this paper, we propose the application of shrinkage strategies to estimate coefficients in the Bell regression models when prior information about the coefficients is available. The Bell regression models are well-suited for modeling count data with multiple covariates. Furthermore, we provide a detailed explanation of the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators, including asymptotic biases and mean squared errors. To assess the performance of the estimators, we conduct numerical studies using Monte Carlo simulations and evaluate their simulated relative efficiency. The results demonstrate that the suggested estimators outperform the unrestricted estimator when prior information is taken into account. Additionally, we present an empirical application to demonstrate the practical utility of the suggested estimators.

Recent work has focused on the very common practice of prediction-based inference: that is, (i) using a pre-trained machine learning model to predict an unobserved response variable, and then (ii) conducting inference on the association between that predicted response and some covariates. As pointed out by Wang et al. (2020), applying a standard inferential approach in (ii) does not accurately quantify the association between the unobserved (as opposed to the predicted) response and the covariates. In recent work, Wang et al. (2020) and Angelopoulos et al. (2023) propose corrections to step (ii) in order to enable valid inference on the association between the unobserved response and the covariates. Here, we show that the method proposed by Angelopoulos et al. (2023) successfully controls the type 1 error rate and provides confidence intervals with correct nominal coverage, regardless of the quality of the pre-trained machine learning model used to predict the unobserved response. However, the method proposed by Wang et al. (2020) provides valid inference only under very strong conditions that rarely hold in practice: for instance, if the machine learning model perfectly estimates the true regression function in the study population of interest.

The structure of a network has a major effect on dynamical processes on that network. Many studies of the interplay between network structure and dynamics have focused on models of phenomena such as disease spread, opinion formation and changes, coupled oscillators, and random walks. In parallel to these developments, there have been many studies of wave propagation and other spatially extended processes on networks. These latter studies consider metric networks, in which the edges are associated with real intervals. Metric networks give a mathematical framework to describe dynamical processes that include both temporal and spatial evolution of some quantity of interest -- such as the concentration of a diffusing substance or the amplitude of a wave -- by using edge-specific intervals that quantify distance information between nodes. Dynamical processes on metric networks often take the form of partial differential equations (PDEs). In this paper, we present a collection of techniques and paradigmatic linear PDEs that are useful to investigate the interplay between structure and dynamics in metric networks. We start by considering a time-independent Schr\"odinger equation. We then use both finite-difference and spectral approaches to study the Poisson, heat, and wave equations as paradigmatic examples of elliptic, parabolic, and hyperbolic PDE problems on metric networks. Our spectral approach is able to account for degenerate eigenmodes. In our numerical experiments, we consider metric networks with up to about $10^4$ nodes and about $10^4$ edges. A key contribution of our paper is to increase the accessibility of studying PDEs on metric networks. Software that implements our numerical approaches is available at //gitlab.com/ComputationalScience/metric-networks.

Multiscale stochastic dynamical systems have been widely adopted to a variety of scientific and engineering problems due to their capability of depicting complex phenomena in many real world applications. This work is devoted to investigating the effective dynamics for slow-fast stochastic dynamical systems. Given observation data on a short-term period satisfying some unknown slow-fast stochastic systems, we propose a novel algorithm including a neural network called Auto-SDE to learn invariant slow manifold. Our approach captures the evolutionary nature of a series of time-dependent autoencoder neural networks with the loss constructed from a discretized stochastic differential equation. Our algorithm is also validated to be accurate, stable and effective through numerical experiments under various evaluation metrics.

In this paper we consider a nonlinear poroelasticity model that describes the quasi-static mechanical behaviour of a fluid-saturated porous medium whose permeability depends on the divergence of the displacement. Such nonlinear models are typically used to study biological structures like tissues, organs, cartilage and bones, which are known for a nonlinear dependence of their permeability/hydraulic conductivity on solid dilation. We formulate (extend to the present situation) one of the most popular splitting schemes, namely the fixed-stress split method for the iterative solution of the coupled problem. The method is proven to converge linearly for sufficiently small time steps under standard assumptions. The error contraction factor then is strictly less than one, independent of the Lam\'{e} parameters, Biot and storage coefficients if the hydraulic conductivity is a strictly positive, bounded and Lipschitz-continuous function.

We present and analyze an algorithm designed for addressing vector-valued regression problems involving possibly infinite-dimensional input and output spaces. The algorithm is a randomized adaptation of reduced rank regression, a technique to optimally learn a low-rank vector-valued function (i.e. an operator) between sampled data via regularized empirical risk minimization with rank constraints. We propose Gaussian sketching techniques both for the primal and dual optimization objectives, yielding Randomized Reduced Rank Regression (R4) estimators that are efficient and accurate. For each of our R4 algorithms we prove that the resulting regularized empirical risk is, in expectation w.r.t. randomness of a sketch, arbitrarily close to the optimal value when hyper-parameteres are properly tuned. Numerical expreriments illustrate the tightness of our bounds and show advantages in two distinct scenarios: (i) solving a vector-valued regression problem using synthetic and large-scale neuroscience datasets, and (ii) regressing the Koopman operator of a nonlinear stochastic dynamical system.

In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.

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