We propose a new fast generalized functional principal components analysis (fast-GFPCA) algorithm for dimension reduction of non-Gaussian functional data. The method consists of: (1) binning the data within the functional domain; (2) fitting local random intercept generalized linear mixed models in every bin to obtain the initial estimates of the person-specific functional linear predictors; (3) using fast functional principal component analysis to smooth the linear predictors and obtain their eigenfunctions; and (4) estimating the global model conditional on the eigenfunctions of the linear predictors. An extensive simulation study shows that fast-GFPCA performs as well or better than existing state-of-the-art approaches, it is orders of magnitude faster than existing general purpose GFPCA methods, and scales up well with both the number of observed curves and observations per curve. Methods were motivated by and applied to a study of active/inactive physical activity profiles obtained from wearable accelerometers in the NHANES 2011-2014 study. The method can be implemented by any user familiar with mixed model software, though the R package fastGFPCA is provided for convenience.
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A sequence of random variables is called exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under permutations. The original formulation of de Finetti's theorem says that any exchangeable sequence of $\{0,1\}$-valued random variables can be thought of as a mixture of independent and identically distributed sequences in a certain precise mathematical sense. Interpreting this statement from a convex analytic perspective, Hewitt and Savage obtained the same conclusion for more general state spaces under some topological conditions. The main contribution of this paper is in providing a new framework that explains the theorem purely as a consequence of the underlying distribution of the random variables, with no topological conditions (beyond Hausdorffness) on the state space being necessary if the distribution is Radon. We also show that it is consistent with the axioms of ZFC that de Finetti's theorem holds for all sequences of exchangeable random variables taking values in any complete metric space. The framework we use is based on nonstandard analysis. We have provided a self-contained introduction to nonstandard analysis as an appendix, thus rendering measure theoretic probability and point-set topology as the only prerequisites for this paper. Our introduction aims to develop some new ideologies that might be of interest to mathematicians, philosophers, and mathematics educators alike. Our technical tools come from nonstandard topological measure theory, in which a highlight is a new generalization of Prokhorov's theorem. Modulo such technical tools, our proof relies on properties of the empirical measures induced by hyperfinitely many identically distributed random variables -- a feature that allows us to establish de Finetti's theorem in the generality that we seek while still retaining the combinatorial intuition of proofs of simpler versions of de Finetti's theorem.
Extended Dynamic Mode Decomposition (EDMD) is a data-driven tool for forecasting and model reduction of dynamics, which has been extensively taken up in the physical sciences. While the method is conceptually simple, in deterministic chaos it is unclear what its properties are or even what it converges to. In particular, it is not clear how EDMD's least-squares approximation treats the classes of regular functions needed to make sense of chaotic dynamics. We develop for the first time a general, rigorous theory of EDMD on the simplest examples of chaotic maps: analytic expanding maps of the circle. To do this, we prove a new, basic approximation result in the theory of orthogonal polynomials on the unit circle (OPUC) and apply methods from transfer operator theory. We show that in the infinite-data limit, the least-squares projection error is exponentially small for trigonometric polynomial observable dictionaries. As a result, we show that the forecasts and Koopman spectral data produced using EDMD in this setting converge to the physically meaningful limits, exponentially fast with respect to the size of the dictionary. This demonstrates that with only a relatively small polynomial dictionary, EDMD can be very effective, even when the sampling measure is not uniform. Furthermore, our OPUC result suggests that data-based least-squares projections may be a very effective approximation strategy.
In this article, we introduce a new parameterized family of topological invariants, taking the form of candidate decompositions, for multi-parameter persistence modules. We prove that our candidate decompositions are controllable approximations: when restricting to modules that can be decomposed into interval summands, we establish theoretical results about the approximation error between our candidate decompositions and the true underlying module in terms of the standard interleaving and bottleneck distances. Moreover, even when the underlying module does not admit such a decomposition, our candidate decompositions are nonetheless stable invariants; small perturbations in the underlying module lead to small perturbations in the candidate decomposition. Then, we introduce MMA (Multipersistence Module Approximation): an algorithm for computing stable instances of such invariants, which is based on fibered barcodes and exact matchings, two constructions that stem from the theory of single-parameter persistence. By design, MMA can handle an arbitrary number of filtrations, and has bounded complexity and running time. Finally, we present empirical evidence validating the generalization capabilities and running time speed-ups of MMA on several data sets.
In extreme value theory and other related risk analysis fields, probability weighted moments (PWM) have been frequently used to estimate the parameters of classical extreme value distributions. This method-of-moment technique can be applied when second moments are finite, a reasonable assumption in many environmental domains like climatological and hydrological studies. Three advantages of PWM estimators can be put forward: their simple interpretations, their rapid numerical implementation and their close connection to the well-studied class of U-statistics. Concerning the later, this connection leads to precise asymptotic properties, but non asymptotic bounds have been lacking when off-the-shelf techniques (Chernoff method) cannot be applied, as exponential moment assumptions become unrealistic in many extreme value settings. In addition, large values analysis is not immune to the undesirable effect of outliers, for example, defective readings in satellite measurements or possible anomalies in climate model runs. Recently, the treatment of outliers has sparked some interest in extreme value theory, but results about finite sample bounds in a robust extreme value theory context are yet to be found, in particular for PWMs or tail index estimators. In this work, we propose a new class of robust PWM estimators, inspired by the median-of-means framework of Devroye et al. (2016). This class of robust estimators is shown to satisfy a sub-Gaussian inequality when the assumption of finite second moments holds. Such non asymptotic bounds are also derived under the general contamination model. Our main proposition confirms theoretically a trade-off between efficiency and robustness. Our simulation study indicates that, while classical estimators of PWMs can be highly sensitive to outliers.
We examine the problem of variance components testing in general mixed effects models using the likelihood ratio test. We account for the presence of nuisance parameters, i.e. the fact that some untested variances might also be equal to zero. Two main issues arise in this context leading to a non regular setting. First, under the null hypothesis the true parameter value lies on the boundary of the parameter space. Moreover, due to the presence of nuisance parameters the exact location of these boundary points is not known, which prevents from using classical asymptotic theory of maximum likelihood estimation. Then, in the specific context of nonlinear mixed-effects models, the Fisher information matrix is singular at the true parameter value. We address these two points by proposing a shrinked parametric bootstrap procedure, which is straightforward to apply even for nonlinear models. We show that the procedure is consistent, solving both the boundary and the singularity issues, and we provide a verifiable criterion for the applicability of our theoretical results. We show through a simulation study that, compared to the asymptotic approach, our procedure has a better small sample performance and is more robust to the presence of nuisance parameters. A real data application is also provided.
We study optimization methods to train local (or personalized) models for decentralized collections of local datasets with an intrinsic network structure. This network structure arises from domain-specific notions of similarity between local datasets. Examples for such notions include spatio-temporal proximity, statistical dependencies or functional relations. Our main conceptual contribution is to formulate federated learning as generalized total variation (GTV) minimization. This formulation unifies and considerably extends existing federated learning methods. It is highly flexible and can be combined with a broad range of parametric models, including generalized linear models or deep neural networks. Our main algorithmic contribution is a fully decentralized federated learning algorithm. This algorithm is obtained by applying an established primal-dual method to solve GTV minimization. It can be implemented as message passing and is robust against inexact computations that arise from limited computational resources including processing time or bandwidth. Our main analytic contribution is an upper bound on the deviation between the local model parameters learnt by our algorithm and an oracle-based clustered federated learning method. This upper bound reveals conditions on the local models and the network structure of local datasets such that GTV minimization is able to pool (nearly) homogeneous local datasets.
This paper explores variants of the subspace iteration algorithm for computing approximate invariant subspaces. The standard subspace iteration approach is revisited and new variants that exploit gradient-type techniques combined with a Grassmann manifold viewpoint are developed. A gradient method as well as a conjugate gradient technique are described. Convergence of the gradient-based algorithm is analyzed and a few numerical experiments are reported, indicating that the proposed algorithms are sometimes superior to a standard Chebyshev-based subspace iteration when compared in terms of number of matrix vector products, but do not require estimating optimal parameters. An important contribution of this paper to achieve this good performance is the accurate and efficient implementation of an exact line search. In addition, new convergence proofs are presented for the non-accelerated gradient method that includes a locally exponential convergence if started in a $\mathcal{O(\sqrt{\delta})}$ neighbourhood of the dominant subspace with spectral gap $\delta$.
While running any experiment, we often have to consider the statistical power to ensure an effective study. Statistical power or power ensures that we can observe an effect with high probability if such a true effect exists. However, several studies lack the appropriate planning for determining the optimal sample size to ensure adequate power. Thus, careful planning ensures that the power remains high even under high measurement errors while keeping the type 1 error constrained. We study the impact of differential privacy on experiments and theoretically analyze the change in sample size required due to the Gaussian mechanisms. Further, we provide an empirical method to improve the accuracy of private statistics with simple bootstrapping.
Learning a nonparametric system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) from $n$ trajectory snapshots in a $d$-dimensional state space requires learning $d$ functions of $d$ variables. Explicit formulations scale quadratically in $d$ unless additional knowledge about system properties, such as sparsity and symmetries, is available. In this work, we propose a linear approach to learning using the implicit formulation provided by vector-valued Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces. By rewriting the ODEs in a weaker integral form, which we subsequently minimize, we derive our learning algorithm. The minimization problem's solution for the vector field relies on multivariate occupation kernel functions associated with the solution trajectories. We validate our approach through experiments on highly nonlinear simulated and real data, where $d$ may exceed 100. We further demonstrate the versatility of the proposed method by learning a nonparametric first order quasilinear partial differential equation.
This paper provides a convergence analysis for generalized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samplers, a family of Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods based on leapfrog integration of Hamiltonian dynamics and kinetic Langevin diffusion, that encompasses the unadjusted Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. Assuming that the target distribution $\pi$ satisfies a log-Sobolev inequality and mild conditions on the corresponding potential function, we establish quantitative bounds on the relative entropy of the iterates defined by the algorithm, with respect to $\pi$. Our approach is based on a perturbative and discrete version of the modified entropy method developed to establish hypocoercivity for the continuous-time kinetic Langevin process. As a corollary of our main result, we are able to derive complexity bounds for the class of algorithms at hand. In particular, we show that the total number of iterations to achieve a target accuracy $\varepsilon >0$ is of order $d/\varepsilon^{1/4}$, where $d$ is the dimension of the problem. This result can be further improved in the case of weakly interacting mean field potentials, for which we find a total number of iterations of order $(d/\varepsilon)^{1/4}$.
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