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We consider the problem of sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function using time-varying Bayesian optimization (TVBO). Here, the key challenge is the exploration-exploitation trade-off under time variations. Current approaches to TVBO require prior knowledge of a constant rate of change. However, the rate of change is usually neither known nor constant. We propose an event-triggered algorithm, ET-GP-UCB, that treats the optimization problem as static until it detects changes in the objective function online and then resets the dataset. This allows the algorithm to adapt to realized temporal changes without the need for prior knowledge. The event-trigger is based on probabilistic uniform error bounds used in Gaussian process regression. We provide regret bounds for ET-GP-UCB and show in numerical experiments that it is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms even though it requires no knowledge about the temporal changes. Further, ET-GP-UCB outperforms these baselines if the rate of change is misspecified, and we demonstrate that it is readily applicable to various settings without tuning hyperparameters.

We study a foundational variant of Valiant and Vapnik and Chervonenkis' Probably Approximately Correct (PAC)-Learning in which the adversary is restricted to a known family of marginal distributions $\mathscr{P}$. In particular, we study how the PAC-learnability of a triple $(\mathscr{P},X,H)$ relates to the learners ability to infer \emph{distributional} information about the adversary's choice of $D \in \mathscr{P}$. To this end, we introduce the `unsupervised' notion of \emph{TV-Learning}, which, given a class $(\mathscr{P},X,H)$, asks the learner to approximate $D$ from unlabeled samples with respect to a natural class-conditional total variation metric. In the classical distribution-free setting, we show that TV-learning is \emph{equivalent} to PAC-Learning: in other words, any learner must infer near-maximal information about $D$. On the other hand, we show this characterization breaks down for general $\mathscr{P}$, where PAC-Learning is strictly sandwiched between two approximate variants we call `Strong' and `Weak' TV-learning, roughly corresponding to unsupervised learners that estimate most relevant distances in $D$ with respect to $H$, but differ in whether the learner \emph{knows} the set of well-estimated events. Finally, we observe that TV-learning is in fact equivalent to the classical notion of \emph{uniform estimation}, and thereby give a strong refutation of the uniform convergence paradigm in supervised learning.

A major barrier to deploying current machine learning models lies in their non-reliability to dataset shifts. To resolve this problem, most existing studies attempted to transfer stable information to unseen environments. Particularly, independent causal mechanisms-based methods proposed to remove mutable causal mechanisms via the do-operator. Compared to previous methods, the obtained stable predictors are more effective in identifying stable information. However, a key question remains: which subset of this whole stable information should the model transfer, in order to achieve optimal generalization ability? To answer this question, we present a comprehensive minimax analysis from a causal perspective. Specifically, we first provide a graphical condition for the whole stable set to be optimal. When this condition fails, we surprisingly find with an example that this whole stable set, although can fully exploit stable information, is not the optimal one to transfer. To identify the optimal subset under this case, we propose to estimate the worst-case risk with a novel optimization scheme over the intervention functions on mutable causal mechanisms. We then propose an efficient algorithm to search for the subset with minimal worst-case risk, based on a newly defined equivalence relation between stable subsets. Compared to the exponential cost of exhaustively searching over all subsets, our searching strategy enjoys a polynomial complexity. The effectiveness and efficiency of our methods are demonstrated on synthetic data and the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

We present a novel fully implicit hybrid finite volume/finite element method for incompressible flows. Following previous works on semi-implicit hybrid FV/FE schemes, the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations are split into a pressure and a transport-diffusion subsystem. The first of them can be seen as a Poisson type problem and is thus solved efficiently using classical continuous Lagrange finite elements. On the other hand, finite volume methods are employed to solve the convective subsystem, in combination with Crouzeix-Raviart finite elements for the discretization of the viscous stress tensor. For some applications, the related CFL condition, even if depending only in the bulk velocity, may yield a severe time restriction in case explicit schemes are used. To overcome this issue an implicit approach is proposed. The system obtained from the implicit discretization of the transport-diffusion operator is solved using an inexact Newton-Krylov method, based either on the BiCStab or the GMRES algorithm. To improve the convergence properties of the linear solver a symmetric Gauss-Seidel (SGS) preconditioner is employed, together with a simple but efficient approach for the reordering of the grid elements that is compatible with MPI parallelization. Besides, considering the Ducros flux for the nonlinear convective terms we can prove that the discrete advection scheme is kinetic energy stable. The methodology is carefully assessed through a set of classical benchmarks for fluid mechanics. A last test shows the potential applicability of the method in the context of blood flow simulation in realistic vessel geometries.

We study the interplay between the data distribution and Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation. We provide a unified theoretical and empirical analysis as to how different properties of the data distribution influence the performance of Q-learning-based algorithms. We connect different lines of research, as well as validate and extend previous results. We start by reviewing theoretical bounds on the performance of approximate dynamic programming algorithms. We then introduce a novel four-state MDP specifically tailored to highlight the impact of the data distribution in the performance of Q-learning-based algorithms with function approximation, both online and offline. Finally, we experimentally assess the impact of the data distribution properties on the performance of two offline Q-learning-based algorithms under different environments. According to our results: (i) high entropy data distributions are well-suited for learning in an offline manner; and (ii) a certain degree of data diversity (data coverage) and data quality (closeness to optimal policy) are jointly desirable for offline learning.

Out-of-sample prediction is the acid test of predictive models, yet an independent test dataset is often not available for assessment of the prediction error. For this reason, out-of-sample performance is commonly estimated using data splitting algorithms such as cross-validation or the bootstrap. For quantitative outcomes, the ratio of variance explained to total variance can be summarized by the coefficient of determination or in-sample $R^2$, which is easy to interpret and to compare across different outcome variables. As opposed to the in-sample $R^2$, the out-of-sample $R^2$ has not been well defined and the variability on the out-of-sample $\hat{R}^2$ has been largely ignored. Usually only its point estimate is reported, hampering formal comparison of predictability of different outcome variables. Here we explicitly define the out-of-sample $R^2$ as a comparison of two predictive models, provide an unbiased estimator and exploit recent theoretical advances on uncertainty of data splitting estimates to provide a standard error for the $\hat{R}^2$. The performance of the estimators for the $R^2$ and its standard error are investigated in a simulation study. We demonstrate our new method by constructing confidence intervals and comparing models for prediction of quantitative $\text{Brassica napus}$ and $\text{Zea mays}$ phenotypes based on gene expression data.

Much effort has been put into developing samplers with specific properties, such as producing blue noise, low-discrepancy, lattice or Poisson disk samples. These samplers can be slow if they rely on optimization processes, may rely on a wide range of numerical methods, are not always differentiable. The success of recent diffusion models for image generation suggests that these models could be appropriate for learning how to generate point sets from examples. However, their convolutional nature makes these methods impractical for dealing with scattered data such as point sets. We propose a generic way to produce 2-d point sets imitating existing samplers from observed point sets using a diffusion model. We address the problem of convolutional layers by leveraging neighborhood information from an optimal transport matching to a uniform grid, that allows us to benefit from fast convolutions on grids, and to support the example-based learning of non-uniform sampling patterns. We demonstrate how the differentiability of our approach can be used to optimize point sets to enforce properties.

The paper addresses the problem of estimation of the model parameters of the logistic exponential distribution based on progressive type-I hybrid censored sample. The maximum likelihood estimates are obtained and computed numerically using Newton-Raphson method. Further, the Bayes estimates are derived under squared error, LINEX and generalized entropy loss functions. Two types (independent and bivariate) of prior distributions are considered for the purpose of Bayesian estimation. It is seen that the Bayes estimates are not of explicit forms.Thus, Lindley's approximation technique is employed to get approximate Bayes estimates. Interval estimates of the parameters based on normal approximate of the maximum likelihood estimates and normal approximation of the log-transformed maximum likelihood estimates are constructed. The highest posterior density credible intervals are obtained by using the importance sampling method. Furthermore, numerical computations are reported to review some of the results obtained in the paper. A real life dataset is considered for the purpose of illustrations.

We give query complexity lower bounds for convex optimization and the related feasibility problem. We show that quadratic memory is necessary to achieve the optimal oracle complexity for first-order convex optimization. In particular, this shows that center-of-mass cutting-planes algorithms in dimension $d$ which use $\tilde O(d^2)$ memory and $\tilde O(d)$ queries are Pareto-optimal for both convex optimization and the feasibility problem, up to logarithmic factors. Precisely, we prove that to minimize $1$-Lipschitz convex functions over the unit ball to $1/d^4$ accuracy, any deterministic first-order algorithms using at most $d^{2-\delta}$ bits of memory must make $\tilde\Omega(d^{1+\delta/3})$ queries, for any $\delta\in[0,1]$. For the feasibility problem, in which an algorithm only has access to a separation oracle, we show a stronger trade-off: for at most $d^{2-\delta}$ memory, the number of queries required is $\tilde\Omega(d^{1+\delta})$. This resolves a COLT 2019 open problem of Woodworth and Srebro.

In iterative approaches to empirical game-theoretic analysis (EGTA), the strategy space is expanded incrementally based on analysis of intermediate game models. A common approach to strategy exploration, represented by the double oracle algorithm, is to add strategies that best-respond to a current equilibrium. This approach may suffer from overfitting and other limitations, leading the developers of the policy-space response oracle (PSRO) framework for iterative EGTA to generalize the target of best response, employing what they term meta-strategy solvers (MSSs). Noting that many MSSs can be viewed as perturbed or approximated versions of Nash equilibrium, we adopt an explicit regularization perspective to the specification and analysis of MSSs. We propose a novel MSS called regularized replicator dynamics (RRD), which simply truncates the process based on a regret criterion. We show that RRD is more adaptive than existing MSSs and outperforms them in various games. We extend our study to three-player games, for which the payoff matrix is cubic in the number of strategies and so exhaustively evaluating profiles may not be feasible. We propose a profile search method that can identify solutions from incomplete models, and combine this with iterative model construction using a regularized MSS. Finally, and most importantly, we reveal that the regret of best response targets has a tremendous influence on the performance of strategy exploration through experiments, which provides an explanation for the effectiveness of regularization in PSRO.