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Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.

In this contribution, a wave equation with a time-dependent variable-order fractional damping term and a nonlinear source is considered. Avoiding the circumstances of expressing the nonlinear variable-order fractional wave equations via closed-form expressions in terms of special functions, we investigate the existence and uniqueness of this problem with Rothe's method. First, the weak formulation for the considered wave problem is proposed. Then, the uniqueness of a solution is established by employing Gr\"onwall's lemma. The Rothe scheme's basic idea is to use Rothe functions to extend the solutions on single-time steps over the entire time frame. Inspired by that, we next introduce a uniform mesh time-discrete scheme based on a discrete convolution approximation in the backward sense. By applying some reasonable assumptions to the given data, we can predict a priori estimates for the time-discrete solution. Employing these estimates side by side with Rothe functions leads to proof of the solution's existence over the whole time interval. Finally, the full discretisation of the problem is introduced by invoking Galerkin spectral techniques in the spatial direction, and numerical examples are given.

Continuous-time measurements are instrumental for a multitude of tasks in quantum engineering and quantum control, including the estimation of dynamical parameters of open quantum systems monitored through the environment. However, such measurements do not extract the maximum amount of information available in the output state, so finding alternative optimal measurement strategies is a major open problem. In this paper we solve this problem in the setting of discrete-time input-output quantum Markov chains. We present an efficient algorithm for optimal estimation of one-dimensional dynamical parameters which consists of an iterative procedure for updating a `measurement filter' operator and determining successive measurement bases for the output units. A key ingredient of the scheme is the use of a coherent quantum absorber as a way to post-process the output after the interaction with the system. This is designed adaptively such that the joint system and absorber stationary state is pure at a reference parameter value. The scheme offers an exciting prospect for optimal continuous-time adaptive measurements, but more work is needed to find realistic practical implementations.

Data-driven offline model-based optimization (MBO) is an established practical approach to black-box computational design problems for which the true objective function is unknown and expensive to query. However, the standard approach which optimizes designs against a learned proxy model of the ground truth objective can suffer from distributional shift. Specifically, in high-dimensional design spaces where valid designs lie on a narrow manifold, the standard approach is susceptible to producing out-of-distribution, invalid designs that "fool" the learned proxy model into outputting a high value. Using an ensemble rather than a single model as the learned proxy can help mitigate distribution shift, but naive formulations for combining gradient information from the ensemble, such as minimum or mean gradient, are still suboptimal and often hampered by non-convergent behavior. In this work, we explore alternate approaches for combining gradient information from the ensemble that are robust to distribution shift without compromising optimality of the produced designs. More specifically, we explore two functions, formulated as convex optimization problems, for combining gradient information: multiple gradient descent algorithm (MGDA) and conflict-averse gradient descent (CAGrad). We evaluate these algorithms on a diverse set of five computational design tasks. We compare performance of ensemble MBO with MGDA and ensemble MBO with CAGrad with three naive baseline algorithms: (a) standard single-model MBO, (b) ensemble MBO with mean gradient, and (c) ensemble MBO with minimum gradient. Our results suggest that MGDA and CAGrad strike a desirable balance between conservatism and optimality and can help robustify data-driven offline MBO without compromising optimality of designs.

In this work, we develop an approach mentioned by da Veiga and Gamboa in 2013. It consists in extending the very interestingpoint of view introduced in \cite{gine2008simple} to estimate general nonlinear integral functionals of a density on the real line, by using empirically a kernel estimator erasing the diagonal terms. Relaxing the positiveness assumption on the kernel and choosing a kernel of order large enough, we are able to prove a central limit theorem for estimating Sobol' indices of any order (the bias is killed thanks to this signed kernel).

Tuberculosis (TB) is an infectious disease transmitted through the respiratory system. China is one of the countries with a high burden of TB. Since 2004, an average of more than 800,000 cases of active TB have been reported each year in China. Analyzing the case data from 2004-2018, we find significant differences in TB incidence by age group. Therefore, the effect of age heterogeneous structure on TB transmission needs further study. We develop a model of TB to explore the role of age heterogeneity as a factor in TB transmission. The model is fitted numerically using the nonlinear least squares method to obtain the key parameters in the model, and the basic reproduction number Rv 0.8017 is calculated and the sensitivity anal-ysis of Rv to the parameters is given. The simulation results show that reducing the number of new infections in the elderly population and increasing the recovery rate of elderly patients with the disease could significantly reduce the transmission of tuberculosis. Furthermore the feasibility of achieving the goals of the WHO End TB Strategy in China is assessed, and we obtain that with existing TB control measures it will take another 30 years for China to reach the WHO goal to reduce 90% of the number of new cases by year 2049. However, in theoretical it is feasible to reach the WHO strategic goal of ending tuberculosis by 2035 if the group contact rate in the elderly population can be reduced though it is difficulty to reduce the contact rate.

This paper resolves the open question of designing near-optimal algorithms for learning imperfect-information extensive-form games from bandit feedback. We present the first line of algorithms that require only $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((XA+YB)/\varepsilon^2)$ episodes of play to find an $\varepsilon$-approximate Nash equilibrium in two-player zero-sum games, where $X,Y$ are the number of information sets and $A,B$ are the number of actions for the two players. This improves upon the best known sample complexity of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}((X^2A+Y^2B)/\varepsilon^2)$ by a factor of $\widetilde{\mathcal{O}}(\max\{X, Y\})$, and matches the information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. We achieve this sample complexity by two new algorithms: Balanced Online Mirror Descent, and Balanced Counterfactual Regret Minimization. Both algorithms rely on novel approaches of integrating \emph{balanced exploration policies} into their classical counterparts. We also extend our results to learning Coarse Correlated Equilibria in multi-player general-sum games.

Emotion recognition in conversation (ERC) aims to detect the emotion label for each utterance. Motivated by recent studies which have proven that feeding training examples in a meaningful order rather than considering them randomly can boost the performance of models, we propose an ERC-oriented hybrid curriculum learning framework. Our framework consists of two curricula: (1) conversation-level curriculum (CC); and (2) utterance-level curriculum (UC). In CC, we construct a difficulty measurer based on "emotion shift" frequency within a conversation, then the conversations are scheduled in an "easy to hard" schema according to the difficulty score returned by the difficulty measurer. For UC, it is implemented from an emotion-similarity perspective, which progressively strengthens the model's ability in identifying the confusing emotions. With the proposed model-agnostic hybrid curriculum learning strategy, we observe significant performance boosts over a wide range of existing ERC models and we are able to achieve new state-of-the-art results on four public ERC datasets.

We describe ACE0, a lightweight platform for evaluating the suitability and viability of AI methods for behaviour discovery in multiagent simulations. Specifically, ACE0 was designed to explore AI methods for multi-agent simulations used in operations research studies related to new technologies such as autonomous aircraft. Simulation environments used in production are often high-fidelity, complex, require significant domain knowledge and as a result have high R&D costs. Minimal and lightweight simulation environments can help researchers and engineers evaluate the viability of new AI technologies for behaviour discovery in a more agile and potentially cost effective manner. In this paper we describe the motivation for the development of ACE0.We provide a technical overview of the system architecture, describe a case study of behaviour discovery in the aerospace domain, and provide a qualitative evaluation of the system. The evaluation includes a brief description of collaborative research projects with academic partners, exploring different AI behaviour discovery methods.

With the rapid increase of large-scale, real-world datasets, it becomes critical to address the problem of long-tailed data distribution (i.e., a few classes account for most of the data, while most classes are under-represented). Existing solutions typically adopt class re-balancing strategies such as re-sampling and re-weighting based on the number of observations for each class. In this work, we argue that as the number of samples increases, the additional benefit of a newly added data point will diminish. We introduce a novel theoretical framework to measure data overlap by associating with each sample a small neighboring region rather than a single point. The effective number of samples is defined as the volume of samples and can be calculated by a simple formula $(1-\beta^{n})/(1-\beta)$, where $n$ is the number of samples and $\beta \in [0,1)$ is a hyperparameter. We design a re-weighting scheme that uses the effective number of samples for each class to re-balance the loss, thereby yielding a class-balanced loss. Comprehensive experiments are conducted on artificially induced long-tailed CIFAR datasets and large-scale datasets including ImageNet and iNaturalist. Our results show that when trained with the proposed class-balanced loss, the network is able to achieve significant performance gains on long-tailed datasets.