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As machine learning (ML) gains widespread adoption, practitioners are increasingly seeking means to quantify and control the risk these systems incur. This challenge is especially salient when ML systems have autonomy to collect their own data, such as in black-box optimization and active learning, where their actions induce sequential feedback-loop shifts in the data distribution. Conformal prediction has emerged as a promising approach to uncertainty and risk quantification, but prior variants' validity guarantees have assumed some form of ``quasi-exchangeability'' on the data distribution, thereby excluding many types of sequential shifts. In this paper we prove that conformal prediction can theoretically be extended to \textit{any} joint data distribution, not just exchangeable or quasi-exchangeable ones, although it is exceedingly impractical to compute in the most general case. For practical applications, we outline a procedure for deriving specific conformal algorithms for any data distribution, and we use this procedure to derive tractable algorithms for a series of ML-agent-induced covariate shifts. We evaluate the proposed algorithms empirically on synthetic black-box optimization and active learning tasks.

Efficient inference in high-dimensional models remains a central challenge in machine learning. This paper introduces the Gaussian Ensemble Belief Propagation (GEnBP) algorithm, a fusion of the Ensemble Kalman filter and Gaussian Belief Propagation (GaBP) methods. GEnBP updates ensembles by passing low-rank local messages over a graphical model. This combination inherits favourable qualities from each method. Ensemble techniques allow GEnBP to handle high-dimensional states, parameters and intricate, noisy, black-box generation processes. The use of local messages in a graphical model structure ensures that the approach can efficiently handle complex dependence structures. GEnBP is advantageous when the ensemble size may be considerably smaller than the inference dimension. This scenario often arises in fields such as spatiotemporal modelling, image processing and physical model inversion. GEnBP can be applied to general problem structures, including data assimilation, system identification and hierarchical models. Supporting code is available at //github.com/danmackinlay/GEnBP

Fully decentralised federated learning enables collaborative training of individual machine learning models on distributed devices on a communication network while keeping the training data localised. This approach enhances data privacy and eliminates both the single point of failure and the necessity for central coordination. Our research highlights that the effectiveness of decentralised federated learning is significantly influenced by the network topology of connected devices. We propose a strategy for uncoordinated initialisation of the artificial neural networks, which leverages the distribution of eigenvector centralities of the nodes of the underlying communication network, leading to a radically improved training efficiency. Additionally, our study explores the scaling behaviour and choice of environmental parameters under our proposed initialisation strategy. This work paves the way for more efficient and scalable artificial neural network training in a distributed and uncoordinated environment, offering a deeper understanding of the intertwining roles of network structure and learning dynamics.

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly used in various applications, from recommendation systems in e-commerce to diagnosis prediction in healthcare. In this paper, we present a novel dynamic framework for thinking about the deployment of ML models in a performative, human-ML collaborative system. In our framework, the introduction of ML recommendations changes the data generating process of human decisions, which are only a proxy to the ground truth and which are then used to train future versions of the model. We show that this dynamic process in principle can converge to different stable points, i.e. where the ML model and the Human+ML system have the same performance. Some of these stable points are suboptimal with respect to the actual ground truth. We conduct an empirical user study with 1,408 participants to showcase this process. In the study, humans solve instances of the knapsack problem with the help of machine learning predictions. This is an ideal setting because we can see how ML models learn to imitate human decisions and how this learning process converges to a stable point. We find that for many levels of ML performance, humans can improve the ML predictions to dynamically reach an equilibrium performance that is around 92% of the maximum knapsack value. We also find that the equilibrium performance could be even higher if humans rationally followed the ML recommendations. Finally, we test whether monetary incentives can increase the quality of human decisions, but we fail to find any positive effect. Our results have practical implications for the deployment of ML models in contexts where human decisions may deviate from the indisputable ground truth.

Federated learning (FL) is a decentralized learning technique that enables participating devices to collaboratively build a shared Machine Leaning (ML) or Deep Learning (DL) model without revealing their raw data to a third party. Due to its privacy-preserving nature, FL has sparked widespread attention for building Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) within the realm of cybersecurity. However, the data heterogeneity across participating domains and entities presents significant challenges for the reliable implementation of an FL-based IDS. In this paper, we propose an effective method called Statistical Averaging (StatAvg) to alleviate non-independently and identically (non-iid) distributed features across local clients' data in FL. In particular, StatAvg allows the FL clients to share their individual data statistics with the server, which then aggregates this information to produce global statistics. The latter are shared with the clients and used for universal data normalisation. It is worth mentioning that StatAvg can seamlessly integrate with any FL aggregation strategy, as it occurs before the actual FL training process. The proposed method is evaluated against baseline approaches using datasets for network and host Artificial Intelligence (AI)-powered IDS. The experimental results demonstrate the efficiency of StatAvg in mitigating non-iid feature distributions across the FL clients compared to the baseline methods.

Federated learning (FL) is an emerging, privacy-preserving machine learning paradigm, drawing tremendous attention in both academia and industry. A unique characteristic of FL is heterogeneity, which resides in the various hardware specifications and dynamic states across the participating devices. Theoretically, heterogeneity can exert a huge influence on the FL training process, e.g., causing a device unavailable for training or unable to upload its model updates. Unfortunately, these impacts have never been systematically studied and quantified in existing FL literature. In this paper, we carry out the first empirical study to characterize the impacts of heterogeneity in FL. We collect large-scale data from 136k smartphones that can faithfully reflect heterogeneity in real-world settings. We also build a heterogeneity-aware FL platform that complies with the standard FL protocol but with heterogeneity in consideration. Based on the data and the platform, we conduct extensive experiments to compare the performance of state-of-the-art FL algorithms under heterogeneity-aware and heterogeneity-unaware settings. Results show that heterogeneity causes non-trivial performance degradation in FL, including up to 9.2% accuracy drop, 2.32x lengthened training time, and undermined fairness. Furthermore, we analyze potential impact factors and find that device failure and participant bias are two potential factors for performance degradation. Our study provides insightful implications for FL practitioners. On the one hand, our findings suggest that FL algorithm designers consider necessary heterogeneity during the evaluation. On the other hand, our findings urge system providers to design specific mechanisms to mitigate the impacts of heterogeneity.

Existing methods for vision-and-language learning typically require designing task-specific architectures and objectives for each task. For example, a multi-label answer classifier for visual question answering, a region scorer for referring expression comprehension, and a language decoder for image captioning, etc. To alleviate these hassles, in this work, we propose a unified framework that learns different tasks in a single architecture with the same language modeling objective, i.e., multimodal conditional text generation, where our models learn to generate labels in text based on the visual and textual inputs. On 7 popular vision-and-language benchmarks, including visual question answering, referring expression comprehension, visual commonsense reasoning, most of which have been previously modeled as discriminative tasks, our generative approach (with a single unified architecture) reaches comparable performance to recent task-specific state-of-the-art vision-and-language models. Moreover, our generative approach shows better generalization ability on answering questions that have rare answers. In addition, we show that our framework allows multi-task learning in a single architecture with a single set of parameters, which achieves similar performance to separately optimized single-task models. Our code will be publicly available at: //github.com/j-min/VL-T5

Federated learning (FL) is a machine learning setting where many clients (e.g. mobile devices or whole organizations) collaboratively train a model under the orchestration of a central server (e.g. service provider), while keeping the training data decentralized. FL embodies the principles of focused data collection and minimization, and can mitigate many of the systemic privacy risks and costs resulting from traditional, centralized machine learning and data science approaches. Motivated by the explosive growth in FL research, this paper discusses recent advances and presents an extensive collection of open problems and challenges.

While existing machine learning models have achieved great success for sentiment classification, they typically do not explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction, which can lead to poor results for fine-grained analysis at the snippet level (a phrase or sentence). Factorization Machine provides a possible approach to learning element-wise interaction for recommender systems, but they are not directly applicable to our task due to the inability to model contexts and word sequences. In this work, we develop two Position-aware Factorization Machines which consider word interaction, context and position information. Such information is jointly encoded in a set of sentiment-oriented word interaction vectors. Compared to traditional word embeddings, SWI vectors explicitly capture sentiment-oriented word interaction and simplify the parameter learning. Experimental results show that while they have comparable performance with state-of-the-art methods for document-level classification, they benefit the snippet/sentence-level sentiment analysis.