We study the problem of detecting and locating change points in high-dimensional Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, whose transition matrices exhibit low rank plus sparse structure. We first address the problem of detecting a single change point using an exhaustive search algorithm and establish a finite sample error bound for its accuracy. Next, we extend the results to the case of multiple change points that can grow as a function of the sample size. Their detection is based on a two-step algorithm, wherein the first step, an exhaustive search for a candidate change point is employed for overlapping windows, and subsequently, a backward elimination procedure is used to screen out redundant candidates. The two-step strategy yields consistent estimates of the number and the locations of the change points. To reduce computation cost, we also investigate conditions under which a surrogate VAR model with a weakly sparse transition matrix can accurately estimate the change points and their locations for data generated by the original model. This work also addresses and resolves a number of novel technical challenges posed by the nature of the VAR models under consideration. The effectiveness of the proposed algorithms and methodology is illustrated on both synthetic and two real data sets.
Bregman proximal point algorithm (BPPA), as one of the centerpieces in the optimization toolbox, has been witnessing emerging applications. With simple and easy to implement update rule, the algorithm bears several compelling intuitions for empirical successes, yet rigorous justifications are still largely unexplored. We study the computational properties of BPPA through classification tasks with separable data, and demonstrate provable algorithmic regularization effects associated with BPPA. We show that BPPA attains non-trivial margin, which closely depends on the condition number of the distance generating function inducing the Bregman divergence. We further demonstrate that the dependence on the condition number is tight for a class of problems, thus showing the importance of divergence in affecting the quality of the obtained solutions. In addition, we extend our findings to mirror descent (MD), for which we establish similar connections between the margin and Bregman divergence. We demonstrate through a concrete example, and show BPPA/MD converges in direction to the maximal margin solution with respect to the Mahalanobis distance. Our theoretical findings are among the first to demonstrate the benign learning properties BPPA/MD, and also provide corroborations for a careful choice of divergence in the algorithmic design.
By the asymptotic oracle property, non-convex penalties represented by minimax concave penalty (MCP) and smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) have attracted much attentions in high-dimensional data analysis, and have been widely used in signal processing, image restoration, matrix estimation, etc. However, in view of their non-convex and non-smooth characteristics, they are computationally challenging. Almost all existing algorithms converge locally, and the proper selection of initial values is crucial. Therefore, in actual operation, they often combine a warm-starting technique to meet the rigid requirement that the initial value must be sufficiently close to the optimal solution of the corresponding problem. In this paper, based on the DC (difference of convex functions) property of MCP and SCAD penalties, we aim to design a global two-stage algorithm for the high-dimensional least squares linear regression problems. A key idea for making the proposed algorithm to be efficient is to use the primal dual active set with continuation (PDASC) method, which is equivalent to the semi-smooth Newton (SSN) method, to solve the corresponding sub-problems. Theoretically, we not only prove the global convergence of the proposed algorithm, but also verify that the generated iterative sequence converges to a d-stationary point. In terms of computational performance, the abundant research of simulation and real data show that the algorithm in this paper is superior to the latest SSN method and the classic coordinate descent (CD) algorithm for solving non-convex penalized high-dimensional linear regression problems.
Finding extended hydrodynamics equations valid from the dense gas region to the rarefied gas region remains a great challenge. The key to success is to obtain accurate constitutive relations for stress and heat flux. Recent data-driven models offer a new phenomenological approach to learning constitutive relations from data. Such models enable complex constitutive relations that extend Newton's law of viscosity and Fourier's law of heat conduction, by regression on higher derivatives. However, choices of derivatives in these models are ad-hoc without a clear physical explanation. We investigated data-driven models theoretically on a linear system. We argue that these models are equivalent to non-linear length scale scaling laws of transport coefficients. The equivalence to scaling laws justified the physical plausibility and revealed the limitation of data-driven models. Our argument also points out modeling the scaling law explicitly could avoid practical difficulties in data-driven models like derivative estimation and variable selection on noisy data. We further proposed a constitutive relation model based on scaling law and tested it on the calculation of Rayleigh scattering spectra. The result shows data-driven model has a clear advantage over the Chapman-Enskog expansion and moment methods for the first time.
In this paper, we study the learning rate of generalized Bayes estimators in a general setting where the hypothesis class can be uncountable and have an irregular shape, the loss function can have heavy tails, and the optimal hypothesis may not be unique. We prove that under the multi-scale Bernstein's condition, the generalized posterior distribution concentrates around the set of optimal hypotheses and the generalized Bayes estimator can achieve fast learning rate. Our results are applied to show that the standard Bayesian linear regression is robust to heavy-tailed distributions.
In this paper, we propose a new method for offline change-point detection on some parameters of the distribution of a random vector. We introduce a penalized maximum likelihood approach that can be efficiently computed by a dynamic programming algorithm or approximated by a fast greedy binary splitting algorithm. We prove both algorithms converge almost surely to the set of change-points under very general assumptions on the distribution and independent sampling of the random vector. In particular, we show the assumptions leading to the consistency of the algorithms are satisfied by categorical and Gaussian random variables. This new approach is motivated by the problem of identifying homozygosity islands on the genome of individuals in a population. Our method directly tackles the issue of identification of the homozygosity islands at the population level, without the need of analyzing single individuals and then combining the results, as is made nowadays in state-of-the-art approaches.
Kernel matrices are crucial in many learning tasks such as support vector machines or kernel ridge regression. The kernel matrix is typically dense and large-scale. Depending on the dimension of the feature space even the computation of all of its entries in reasonable time becomes a challenging task. For such dense matrices the cost of a matrix-vector product scales quadratically in the number of entries, if no customized methods are applied. We propose the use of an ANOVA kernel, where we construct several kernels based on lower-dimensional feature spaces for which we provide fast algorithms realizing the matrix-vector products. We employ the non-equispaced fast Fourier transform (NFFT), which is of linear complexity for fixed accuracy. Based on a feature grouping approach, we then show how the fast matrix-vector products can be embedded into a learning method choosing kernel ridge regression and the preconditioned conjugate gradient solver. We illustrate the performance of our approach on several data sets.
Polar codes are normally designed based on the reliability of the sub-channels in the polarized vector channel. There are various methods with diverse complexity and accuracy to evaluate the reliability of the sub-channels. However, designing polar codes solely based on the sub-channel reliability may result in poor Hamming distance properties. In this work, we propose a different approach to design the information set for polar codes and PAC codes where the objective is to reduce the number of codewords with minimum weight (a.k.a. error coefficient) of a code designed for maximum reliability. This approach is based on the coset-wise characterization of the rows of polar transform $\mathbf{G}_N$ involved in the formation of the minimum-weight codewords. Our analysis capitalizes on the properties of the polar transform based on its row and column indices. The numerical results show that the designed codes outperform PAC codes and CRC-Polar codes at the practical block error rate of $10^{-2}-10^{-3}$. Furthermore, a by-product of the combinatorial properties analyzed in this paper is an alternative enumeration method of the minimum-weight codewords.
Change point detection in time series has attracted substantial interest, but most of the existing results have been focused on detecting change points in the time domain. This paper considers the situation where nonlinear time series have potential change points in the state domain. We apply a density-weighted anti-symmetric kernel function to the state domain and therefore propose a nonparametric procedure to test the existence of change points. When the existence of change points is affirmative, we further introduce an algorithm to estimate the number of change points together with their locations. Theoretical results of the proposed detection and estimation procedures are given and a real dataset is used to illustrate our methods.
Change Point Detection techniques aim to capture changes in trends and sequences in time-series data to describe the underlying behaviour of the system. Detecting changes and anomalies in the web services, the trend of applications usage can provide valuable insight towards the system, however, many existing approaches are done in a supervised manner, requiring well-labelled data. As the amount of data produced and captured by sensors are growing rapidly, it is getting harder and even impossible to annotate the data. Therefore, coming up with a self-supervised solution is a necessity these days. In this work, we propose TSCP a novel self-supervised technique for temporal change point detection, based on representation learning with Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN). To the best of our knowledge, our proposed method is the first method which employs Contrastive Learning for prediction with the aim change point detection. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that our method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art change point detection and anomaly detection baselines, including those adopting either unsupervised or semi-supervised approach. TSCP is shown to improve both non-Deep learning- and Deep learning-based methods by 0.28 and 0.12 in terms of average F1-score across three datasets.
This study considers the 3D human pose estimation problem in a single RGB image by proposing a conditional random field (CRF) model over 2D poses, in which the 3D pose is obtained as a byproduct of the inference process. The unary term of the proposed CRF model is defined based on a powerful heat-map regression network, which has been proposed for 2D human pose estimation. This study also presents a regression network for lifting the 2D pose to 3D pose and proposes the prior term based on the consistency between the estimated 3D pose and the 2D pose. To obtain the approximate solution of the proposed CRF model, the N-best strategy is adopted. The proposed inference algorithm can be viewed as sequential processes of bottom-up generation of 2D and 3D pose proposals from the input 2D image based on deep networks and top-down verification of such proposals by checking their consistencies. To evaluate the proposed method, we use two large-scale datasets: Human3.6M and HumanEva. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art 3D human pose estimation performance.