How can we quantify uncertainty if our favorite computational tool - be it a numerical, a statistical, or a machine learning approach, or just any computer model - provides single-valued output only? In this article, we introduce the Easy Uncertainty Quantification (EasyUQ) technique, which transforms real-valued model output into calibrated statistical distributions, based solely on training data of model output-outcome pairs, without any need to access model input. In its basic form, EasyUQ is a special case of the recently introduced Isotonic Distributional Regression (IDR) technique that leverages the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm for nonparametric isotonic regression. EasyUQ yields discrete predictive distributions that are calibrated and optimal in finite samples, subject to stochastic monotonicity. The workflow is fully automated, without any need for tuning. The Smooth EasyUQ approach supplements IDR with kernel smoothing, to yield continuous predictive distributions that preserve key properties of the basic form, including both, stochastic monotonicity with respect to the original model output, and asymptotic consistency. For the selection of kernel parameters, we introduce multiple one-fit grid search, a computationally much less demanding approximation to leave-one-out cross-validation. We use simulation examples and forecast data from weather prediction to illustrate the techniques. In a study of benchmark problems from machine learning, we show how EasyUQ and Smooth EasyUQ can be integrated into the workflow of neural network learning and hyperparameter tuning, and find EasyUQ to be competitive with conformal prediction, as well as more elaborate input-based approaches.
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ACM/IEEE第23屆模型驅動工程語言和系統國際會議，是模型驅動軟件和系統工程的首要會議系列，由ACM-SIGSOFT和IEEE-TCSE支持組織。自1998年以來，模型涵蓋了建模的各個方面，從語言和方法到工具和應用程序。模特的參加者來自不同的背景，包括研究人員、學者、工程師和工業專業人士。MODELS 2019是一個論壇，參與者可以圍繞建模和模型驅動的軟件和系統交流前沿研究成果和創新實踐經驗。今年的版本將為建模社區提供進一步推進建模基礎的機會，并在網絡物理系統、嵌入式系統、社會技術系統、云計算、大數據、機器學習、安全、開源等新興領域提出建模的創新應用以及可持續性。
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知識 (knowledge)
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Engineering
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語言模型化
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MoDELS
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In this work, we explore the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for knowledge engineering tasks in the context of the ISWC 2023 LM-KBC Challenge. For this task, given subject and relation pairs sourced from Wikidata, we utilize pre-trained LLMs to produce the relevant objects in string format and link them to their respective Wikidata QIDs. We developed a pipeline using LLMs for Knowledge Engineering (LLMKE), combining knowledge probing and Wikidata entity mapping. The method achieved a macro-averaged F1-score of 0.701 across the properties, with the scores varying from 1.00 to 0.328. These results demonstrate that the knowledge of LLMs varies significantly depending on the domain and that further experimentation is required to determine the circumstances under which LLMs can be used for automatic Knowledge Base (e.g., Wikidata) completion and correction. The investigation of the results also suggests the promising contribution of LLMs in collaborative knowledge engineering. LLMKE won Track 2 of the challenge. The implementation is available at //github.com/bohuizhang/LLMKE.
Polar duality is a well-known concept from convex geometry and analysis. In the present paper, we study two symplectically covariant versions of polar duality keeping in mind their applications to quantum mechanics. The first variant makes use of the symplectic form on phase space and allows a precise study of the covariance matrix of a density operator. The latter is a fundamental object in quantum information theory., The second variant is a symplectically covariant version of the usual polar duality highlighting the role played by Lagrangian planes. It allows us to define the notion of "geometric quantum states" with are in bijection with generalized Gaussians.
Visually-grounded dialog systems, which integrate multiple modes of communication such as text and visual inputs, have become an increasingly popular area of investigation. However, the absence of a standardized evaluation framework poses a challenge in assessing the development of this field. To this end, we propose \textbf{VDialogUE}, a \textbf{V}isually-grounded \textbf{Dialog}ue benchmark for \textbf{U}nified \textbf{E}valuation. It defines five core multi-modal dialogue tasks and covers six datasets. Furthermore, in order to provide a comprehensive assessment of the model's performance across all tasks, we developed a novel evaluation metric called VDscore, which is based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process~(AHP) method. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet efficient baseline model, named \textbf{VISIT}~(\textbf{VIS}ually-grounded d\textbf{I}alog \textbf{T}ransformer), to promote the advancement of general multi-modal dialogue systems. It progressively builds its multi-modal foundation and dialogue capability via a two-stage pre-training strategy. We believe that the VDialogUE benchmark, along with the evaluation scripts and our baseline models, will accelerate the development of visually-grounded dialog systems and lead to the development of more sophisticated and effective pre-trained models.
Transformers have achieved superior performances in many tasks in natural language processing and computer vision, which also intrigues great interests in the time series community. Among multiple advantages of transformers, the ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions is especially attractive for time series modeling, leading to exciting progress in various time series applications. In this paper, we systematically review transformer schemes for time series modeling by highlighting their strengths as well as limitations through a new taxonomy to summarize existing time series transformers in two perspectives. From the perspective of network modifications, we summarize the adaptations of module level and architecture level of the time series transformers. From the perspective of applications, we categorize time series transformers based on common tasks including forecasting, anomaly detection, and classification. Empirically, we perform robust analysis, model size analysis, and seasonal-trend decomposition analysis to study how Transformers perform in time series. Finally, we discuss and suggest future directions to provide useful research guidance. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first work to comprehensively and systematically summarize the recent advances of Transformers for modeling time series data. We hope this survey will ignite further research interests in time series Transformers.
In the last decade or so, we have witnessed deep learning reinvigorating the machine learning field. It has solved many problems in the domains of computer vision, speech recognition, natural language processing, and various other tasks with state-of-the-art performance. The data is generally represented in the Euclidean space in these domains. Various other domains conform to non-Euclidean space, for which graph is an ideal representation. Graphs are suitable for representing the dependencies and interrelationships between various entities. Traditionally, handcrafted features for graphs are incapable of providing the necessary inference for various tasks from this complex data representation. Recently, there is an emergence of employing various advances in deep learning to graph data-based tasks. This article provides a comprehensive survey of graph neural networks (GNNs) in each learning setting: supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised, and self-supervised learning. Taxonomy of each graph based learning setting is provided with logical divisions of methods falling in the given learning setting. The approaches for each learning task are analyzed from both theoretical as well as empirical standpoints. Further, we provide general architecture guidelines for building GNNs. Various applications and benchmark datasets are also provided, along with open challenges still plaguing the general applicability of GNNs.
Interpretability in machine learning (ML) is crucial for high stakes decisions and troubleshooting. In this work, we provide fundamental principles for interpretable ML, and dispel common misunderstandings that dilute the importance of this crucial topic. We also identify 10 technical challenge areas in interpretable machine learning and provide history and background on each problem. Some of these problems are classically important, and some are recent problems that have arisen in the last few years. These problems are: (1) Optimizing sparse logical models such as decision trees; (2) Optimization of scoring systems; (3) Placing constraints into generalized additive models to encourage sparsity and better interpretability; (4) Modern case-based reasoning, including neural networks and matching for causal inference; (5) Complete supervised disentanglement of neural networks; (6) Complete or even partial unsupervised disentanglement of neural networks; (7) Dimensionality reduction for data visualization; (8) Machine learning models that can incorporate physics and other generative or causal constraints; (9) Characterization of the "Rashomon set" of good models; and (10) Interpretable reinforcement learning. This survey is suitable as a starting point for statisticians and computer scientists interested in working in interpretable machine learning.
Causality knowledge is vital to building robust AI systems. Deep learning models often perform poorly on tasks that require causal reasoning, which is often derived using some form of commonsense knowledge not immediately available in the input but implicitly inferred by humans. Prior work has unraveled spurious observational biases that models fall prey to in the absence of causality. While language representation models preserve contextual knowledge within learned embeddings, they do not factor in causal relationships during training. By blending causal relationships with the input features to an existing model that performs visual cognition tasks (such as scene understanding, video captioning, video question-answering, etc.), better performance can be achieved owing to the insight causal relationships bring about. Recently, several models have been proposed that have tackled the task of mining causal data from either the visual or textual modality. However, there does not exist widespread research that mines causal relationships by juxtaposing the visual and language modalities. While images offer a rich and easy-to-process resource for us to mine causality knowledge from, videos are denser and consist of naturally time-ordered events. Also, textual information offers details that could be implicit in videos. We propose iReason, a framework that infers visual-semantic commonsense knowledge using both videos and natural language captions. Furthermore, iReason's architecture integrates a causal rationalization module to aid the process of interpretability, error analysis and bias detection. We demonstrate the effectiveness of iReason using a two-pronged comparative analysis with language representation learning models (BERT, GPT-2) as well as current state-of-the-art multimodal causality models.
With the advances of data-driven machine learning research, a wide variety of prediction problems have been tackled. It has become critical to explore how machine learning and specifically deep learning methods can be exploited to analyse healthcare data. A major limitation of existing methods has been the focus on grid-like data; however, the structure of physiological recordings are often irregular and unordered which makes it difficult to conceptualise them as a matrix. As such, graph neural networks have attracted significant attention by exploiting implicit information that resides in a biological system, with interactive nodes connected by edges whose weights can be either temporal associations or anatomical junctions. In this survey, we thoroughly review the different types of graph architectures and their applications in healthcare. We provide an overview of these methods in a systematic manner, organized by their domain of application including functional connectivity, anatomical structure and electrical-based analysis. We also outline the limitations of existing techniques and discuss potential directions for future research.
Machine learning techniques have deeply rooted in our everyday life. However, since it is knowledge- and labor-intensive to pursue good learning performance, human experts are heavily involved in every aspect of machine learning. In order to make machine learning techniques easier to apply and reduce the demand for experienced human experts, automated machine learning (AutoML) has emerged as a hot topic with both industrial and academic interest. In this paper, we provide an up to date survey on AutoML. First, we introduce and define the AutoML problem, with inspiration from both realms of automation and machine learning. Then, we propose a general AutoML framework that not only covers most existing approaches to date but also can guide the design for new methods. Subsequently, we categorize and review the existing works from two aspects, i.e., the problem setup and the employed techniques. Finally, we provide a detailed analysis of AutoML approaches and explain the reasons underneath their successful applications. We hope this survey can serve as not only an insightful guideline for AutoML beginners but also an inspiration for future research.
We study the problem of learning to reason in large scale knowledge graphs (KGs). More specifically, we describe a novel reinforcement learning framework for learning multi-hop relational paths: we use a policy-based agent with continuous states based on knowledge graph embeddings, which reasons in a KG vector space by sampling the most promising relation to extend its path. In contrast to prior work, our approach includes a reward function that takes the accuracy, diversity, and efficiency into consideration. Experimentally, we show that our proposed method outperforms a path-ranking based algorithm and knowledge graph embedding methods on Freebase and Never-Ending Language Learning datasets.
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