Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are used in medicine to tailor sequential treatment decisions to patients by considering patient heterogeneity. Common methods for learning optimal DTRs, however, have shortcomings: they are typically based on outcome prediction and not treatment effect estimation, or they use linear models that are restrictive for patient data from modern electronic health records. To address these shortcomings, we develop two novel methods for learning optimal DTRs that effectively handle complex patient data. We call our methods DTR-CT and DTR-CF. Our methods are based on a data-driven estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects using causal tree methods, specifically causal trees and causal forests, that learn non-linear relationships, control for time-varying confounding, are doubly robust, and explainable. To the best of our knowledge, our paper is the first that adapts causal tree methods for learning optimal DTRs. We evaluate our proposed methods using synthetic data and then apply them to real-world data from intensive care units. Our methods outperform state-of-the-art baselines in terms of cumulative regret and percentage of optimal decisions by a considerable margin. Our work improves treatment recommendations from electronic health record and is thus of direct relevance for personalized medicine.
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One popular technique to solve temporal planning problems consists in decoupling the causal decisions, demanding them to heuristic search, from temporal decisions, demanding them to a simple temporal network (STN) solver. In this architecture, one needs to check the consistency of a series of STNs that are related one another, therefore having methods to incrementally re-use previous computations and that avoid expensive memory duplication is of paramount importance. In this paper, we describe in detail how STNs are used in temporal planning, we identify a clear interface to support this use-case and we present an efficient data-structure implementing this interface that is both time- and memory-efficient. We show that our data structure, called \deltastn, is superior to other state-of-the-art approaches on temporal planning sequences of problems.
Hyperproperties extend trace properties to express properties of sets of traces, and they are increasingly popular in specifying various security and performance-related properties in domains such as cyber-physical systems, smart grids, and automotive. This paper introduces a model checking algorithm for a new formalism, HyperTWTL, which extends Time Window Temporal Logic (TWTL) -- a domain-specific formal specification language for robotics, by allowing explicit and simultaneous quantification over multiple execution traces. We present HyperTWTL with both \emph{synchronous} and \emph{asynchronous} semantics, based on the alignment of the timestamps in the traces. Consequently, we demonstrate the application of HyperTWTL in formalizing important information-flow security policies and concurrency for robotics applications. Finally, we propose a model checking algorithm for verifying fragments of HyperTWTL by reducing the problem to a TWTL model checking problem.
Image-based precision medicine aims to personalize treatment decisions based on an individual's unique imaging features so as to improve their clinical outcome. Machine learning frameworks that integrate uncertainty estimation as part of their treatment recommendations would be safer and more reliable. However, little work has been done in adapting uncertainty estimation techniques and validation metrics for precision medicine. In this paper, we use Bayesian deep learning for estimating the posterior distribution over factual and counterfactual outcomes on several treatments. This allows for estimating the uncertainty for each treatment option and for the individual treatment effects (ITE) between any two treatments. We train and evaluate this model to predict future new and enlarging T2 lesion counts on a large, multi-center dataset of MR brain images of patients with multiple sclerosis, exposed to several treatments during randomized controlled trials. We evaluate the correlation of the uncertainty estimate with the factual error, and, given the lack of ground truth counterfactual outcomes, demonstrate how uncertainty for the ITE prediction relates to bounds on the ITE error. Lastly, we demonstrate how knowledge of uncertainty could modify clinical decision-making to improve individual patient and clinical trial outcomes.
Video depth estimation aims to infer temporally consistent depth. Some methods achieve temporal consistency by finetuning a single-image depth model during test time using geometry and re-projection constraints, which is inefficient and not robust. An alternative approach is to learn how to enforce temporal consistency from data, but this requires well-designed models and sufficient video depth data. To address these challenges, we propose a plug-and-play framework called Neural Video Depth Stabilizer (NVDS) that stabilizes inconsistent depth estimations and can be applied to different single-image depth models without extra effort. We also introduce a large-scale dataset, Video Depth in the Wild (VDW), which consists of 14,203 videos with over two million frames, making it the largest natural-scene video depth dataset to our knowledge. We evaluate our method on the VDW dataset as well as two public benchmarks and demonstrate significant improvements in consistency, accuracy, and efficiency compared to previous approaches. Our work serves as a solid baseline and provides a data foundation for learning-based video depth models. We will release our dataset and code for future research.
Many segmentation networks have been proposed for 3D volumetric segmentation of tumors and organs at risk. Hospitals and clinical institutions seek to accelerate and minimize the efforts of specialists in image segmentation. Still, in case of errors generated by these networks, clinicians would have to manually edit the generated segmentation maps. Given a 3D volume and its putative segmentation map, we propose an approach to identify and measure erroneous regions in the segmentation map. Our method can estimate error at any point or node in a 3D mesh generated from a possibly erroneous volumetric segmentation map, serving as a Quality Assurance tool. We propose a graph neural network-based transformer based on the Nodeformer architecture to measure and classify the segmentation errors at any point. We have evaluated our network on a high-resolution micro-CT dataset of the human inner-ear bony labyrinth structure by simulating erroneous 3D segmentation maps. Our network incorporates a convolutional encoder to compute node-centric features from the input micro-CT data, the Nodeformer to learn the latent graph embeddings, and a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) to compute and classify the node-wise errors. Our network achieves a mean absolute error of ~0.042 over other Graph Neural Networks (GNN) and an accuracy of 79.53% over other GNNs in estimating and classifying the node-wise errors, respectively. We also put forth vertex-normal prediction as a custom pretext task for pre-training the CNN encoder to improve the network's overall performance. Qualitative analysis shows the efficiency of our network in correctly classifying errors and reducing misclassifications.
Understanding causality helps to structure interventions to achieve specific goals and enables predictions under interventions. With the growing importance of learning causal relationships, causal discovery tasks have transitioned from using traditional methods to infer potential causal structures from observational data to the field of pattern recognition involved in deep learning. The rapid accumulation of massive data promotes the emergence of causal search methods with brilliant scalability. Existing summaries of causal discovery methods mainly focus on traditional methods based on constraints, scores and FCMs, there is a lack of perfect sorting and elaboration for deep learning-based methods, also lacking some considers and exploration of causal discovery methods from the perspective of variable paradigms. Therefore, we divide the possible causal discovery tasks into three types according to the variable paradigm and give the definitions of the three tasks respectively, define and instantiate the relevant datasets for each task and the final causal model constructed at the same time, then reviews the main existing causal discovery methods for different tasks. Finally, we propose some roadmaps from different perspectives for the current research gaps in the field of causal discovery and point out future research directions.
Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.
Recent contrastive representation learning methods rely on estimating mutual information (MI) between multiple views of an underlying context. E.g., we can derive multiple views of a given image by applying data augmentation, or we can split a sequence into views comprising the past and future of some step in the sequence. Contrastive lower bounds on MI are easy to optimize, but have a strong underestimation bias when estimating large amounts of MI. We propose decomposing the full MI estimation problem into a sum of smaller estimation problems by splitting one of the views into progressively more informed subviews and by applying the chain rule on MI between the decomposed views. This expression contains a sum of unconditional and conditional MI terms, each measuring modest chunks of the total MI, which facilitates approximation via contrastive bounds. To maximize the sum, we formulate a contrastive lower bound on the conditional MI which can be approximated efficiently. We refer to our general approach as Decomposed Estimation of Mutual Information (DEMI). We show that DEMI can capture a larger amount of MI than standard non-decomposed contrastive bounds in a synthetic setting, and learns better representations in a vision domain and for dialogue generation.
Human doctors with well-structured medical knowledge can diagnose a disease merely via a few conversations with patients about symptoms. In contrast, existing knowledge-grounded dialogue systems often require a large number of dialogue instances to learn as they fail to capture the correlations between different diseases and neglect the diagnostic experience shared among them. To address this issue, we propose a more natural and practical paradigm, i.e., low-resource medical dialogue generation, which can transfer the diagnostic experience from source diseases to target ones with a handful of data for adaptation. It is capitalized on a commonsense knowledge graph to characterize the prior disease-symptom relations. Besides, we develop a Graph-Evolving Meta-Learning (GEML) framework that learns to evolve the commonsense graph for reasoning disease-symptom correlations in a new disease, which effectively alleviates the needs of a large number of dialogues. More importantly, by dynamically evolving disease-symptom graphs, GEML also well addresses the real-world challenges that the disease-symptom correlations of each disease may vary or evolve along with more diagnostic cases. Extensive experiment results on the CMDD dataset and our newly-collected Chunyu dataset testify the superiority of our approach over state-of-the-art approaches. Besides, our GEML can generate an enriched dialogue-sensitive knowledge graph in an online manner, which could benefit other tasks grounded on knowledge graph.
Weakly supervised phrase grounding aims at learning region-phrase correspondences using only image-sentence pairs. A major challenge thus lies in the missing links between image regions and sentence phrases during training. To address this challenge, we leverage a generic object detector at training time, and propose a contrastive learning framework that accounts for both region-phrase and image-sentence matching. Our core innovation is the learning of a region-phrase score function, based on which an image-sentence score function is further constructed. Importantly, our region-phrase score function is learned by distilling from soft matching scores between the detected object class names and candidate phrases within an image-sentence pair, while the image-sentence score function is supervised by ground-truth image-sentence pairs. The design of such score functions removes the need of object detection at test time, thereby significantly reducing the inference cost. Without bells and whistles, our approach achieves state-of-the-art results on the task of visual phrase grounding, surpassing previous methods that require expensive object detectors at test time.
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