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Let $\sigma$ be a first-order signature and let $\mathbf{W}_n$ be the set of all $\sigma$-structures with domain $[n] = \{1, \ldots, n\}$. We can think of each structure in $\mathbf{W}_n$ as representing a "possible (state of the) world". By an inference framework we mean a class $\mathbf{F}$ of pairs $(\mathbb{P}, L)$, where $\mathbb{P} = (\mathbb{P}_n : n = 1, 2, 3, \ldots)$ and each $\mathbb{P}_n$ is a probability distribution on $\mathbb{W}_n$, and $L$ is a logic with truth values in the unit interval $[0, 1]$. From the point of view of probabilistic and logical expressivity one may consider an inference framework as optimal if it allows any pair $(\mathbb{P}, L)$ where $\mathbb{P} = (\mathbb{P}_n : n = 1, 2, 3, \ldots)$ is a sequence of probability distributions on $\mathbb{W}_n$ and $L$ is a logic. But from the point of view of using a pair $(\mathbb{P}, L)$ from such an inference framework for making inferences on $\mathbb{W}_n$ when $n$ is large we face the problem of computational complexity. This motivates looking for an "optimal" trade-off (in a given context) between expressivity and computational efficiency. We define a notion that an inference framework is "asymptotically at least as expressive" as another inference framework. This relation is a preorder and we describe a (strict) partial order on the equivalence classes of some inference frameworks that in our opinion are natural in the context of machine learning and artificial intelligence. The results have bearing on issues concerning efficient learning and probabilistic inference, but are also new instances of results in finite model theory about "almost sure elimination" of extra syntactic features (e.g quantifiers) beyond the connectives. Often such a result has a logical convergence law as a corollary.

Human visual attention is a complex phenomenon that has been studied for decades. Within it, the particular problem of scanpath prediction poses a challenge, particularly due to the inter- and intra-observer variability, among other reasons. Besides, most existing approaches to scanpath prediction have focused on optimizing the prediction of a gaze point given the previous ones. In this work, we present a probabilistic time-evolving approach to scanpath prediction, based on Bayesian deep learning. We optimize our model using a novel spatio-temporal loss function based on a combination of Kullback-Leibler divergence and dynamic time warping, jointly considering the spatial and temporal dimensions of scanpaths. Our scanpath prediction framework yields results that outperform those of current state-of-the-art approaches, and are almost on par with the human baseline, suggesting that our model is able to generate scanpaths whose behavior closely resembles those of the real ones.

We consider the offline constrained reinforcement learning (RL) problem, in which the agent aims to compute a policy that maximizes expected return while satisfying given cost constraints, learning only from a pre-collected dataset. This problem setting is appealing in many real-world scenarios, where direct interaction with the environment is costly or risky, and where the resulting policy should comply with safety constraints. However, it is challenging to compute a policy that guarantees satisfying the cost constraints in the offline RL setting, since the off-policy evaluation inherently has an estimation error. In this paper, we present an offline constrained RL algorithm that optimizes the policy in the space of the stationary distribution. Our algorithm, COptiDICE, directly estimates the stationary distribution corrections of the optimal policy with respect to returns, while constraining the cost upper bound, with the goal of yielding a cost-conservative policy for actual constraint satisfaction. Experimental results show that COptiDICE attains better policies in terms of constraint satisfaction and return-maximization, outperforming baseline algorithms.

This paper is concerned with numerical algorithms for Biot model. By introducing an intermediate variable, the classical 2-field Biot model is written into a 3-field formulation. Based on such a 3-field formulation, we propose a coupled algorithm, some time-extrapolation based decoupled algorithms, and an iterative decoupled algorithm. Our focus is the analysis of the iterative decoupled algorithm. It is shown that the convergence of the iterative decoupled algorithm requires no extra assumptions on physical parameters or stabilization parameters. Numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

We consider M-estimation problems, where the target value is determined using a minimizer of an expected functional of a Levy process. With discrete observations from the Levy process, we can produce a "quasi-path" by shuffling increments of the Levy process, we call it a quasi-process. Under a suitable sampling scheme, a quasi-process can converge weakly to the true process according to the properties of the stationary and independent increments. Using this resampling technique, we can estimate objective functionals similar to those estimated using the Monte Carlo simulations, and it is available as a contrast function. The M-estimator based on these quasi-processes can be consistent and asymptotically normal.

Gaussian process regression is increasingly applied for learning unknown dynamical systems. In particular, the implicit quantification of the uncertainty of the learned model makes it a promising approach for safety-critical applications. When using Gaussian process regression to learn unknown systems, a commonly considered approach consists of learning the residual dynamics after applying some generic discretization technique, which might however disregard properties of the underlying physical system. Variational integrators are a less common yet promising approach to discretization, as they retain physical properties of the underlying system, such as energy conservation and satisfaction of explicit kinematic constraints. In this work, we present a novel structure-preserving learning-based modelling approach that combines a variational integrator for the nominal dynamics of a mechanical system and learning residual dynamics with Gaussian process regression. We extend our approach to systems with known kinematic constraints and provide formal bounds on the prediction uncertainty. The simulative evaluation of the proposed method shows desirable energy conservation properties in accordance with general theoretical results and demonstrates exact constraint satisfaction for constrained dynamical systems.

Online review systems are the primary means through which many businesses seek to build the brand and spread their messages. Prior research studying the effects of online reviews has been mainly focused on a single numerical cause, e.g., ratings or sentiment scores. We argue that such notions of causes entail three key limitations: they solely consider the effects of single numerical causes and ignore different effects of multiple aspects -- e.g., Food, Service -- embedded in the textual reviews; they assume the absence of hidden confounders in observational studies, e.g., consumers' personal preferences; and they overlook the indirect effects of numerical causes that can potentially cancel out the effect of textual reviews on business revenue. We thereby propose an alternative perspective to this single-cause-based effect estimation of online reviews: in the presence of hidden confounders, we consider multi-aspect textual reviews, particularly, their total effects on business revenue and direct effects with the numerical cause -- ratings -- being the mediator. We draw on recent advances in machine learning and causal inference to together estimate the hidden confounders and causal effects. We present empirical evaluations using real-world examples to discuss the importance and implications of differentiating the multi-aspect effects in strategizing business operations.

In this paper, we study the problem of exploring an unknown Region Of Interest (ROI) with a team of aerial robots. The size and shape of the ROI are unknown to the robots. The objective is to find a tour for each robot such that each point in the ROI must be visible from the field-of-view of some robot along its tour. In conventional exploration using ground robots, the ROI boundary is typically also as an obstacle and robots are naturally constrained to the interior of this ROI. Instead, we study the case where aerial robots are not restricted to flying inside the ROI (and can fly over the boundary of the ROI). We propose a recursive depth-first search-based algorithm that yields a constant competitive ratio for the exploration problem. Our analysis also extends to the case where the ROI is translating, \eg, in the case of marine plumes. In the simpler version of the problem where the ROI is modeled as a 2D grid, the competitive ratio is $\frac{2(S_r+S_p)(R+\lfloor\log{R}\rfloor)}{(S_r-S_p)(1+\lfloor\log{R}\rfloor)}$ where $R$ is the number of robots, and $S_r$ and $S_p$ are the robot speed and the ROI speed, respectively. We also consider a more realistic scenario where the ROI shape is not restricted to grid cells but an arbitrary shape. We show our algorithm has $\frac{2(S_r+S_p)(18R+\lfloor\log{R}\rfloor)}{(S_r-S_p)(1+\lfloor\log{R}\rfloor)}$ competitive ratio under some conditions. We empirically verify our algorithm using simulations as well as a proof-of-concept experiment mapping a 2D ROI using an aerial robot with a downwards-facing camera.

We present a novel static analysis technique to derive higher moments for program variables for a large class of probabilistic loops with potentially uncountable state spaces. Our approach is fully automatic, meaning it does not rely on externally provided invariants or templates. We employ algebraic techniques based on linear recurrences and introduce program transformations to simplify probabilistic programs while preserving their statistical properties. We develop power reduction techniques to further simplify the polynomial arithmetic of probabilistic programs and define the theory of moment-computable probabilistic loops for which higher moments can precisely be computed. Our work has applications towards recovering probability distributions of random variables and computing tail probabilities. The empirical evaluation of our results demonstrates the applicability of our work on many challenging examples.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.