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In health-pollution cohort studies, accurate predictions of pollutant concentrations at new locations are needed, since the locations of fixed monitoring sites and study participants are often spatially misaligned. For multi-pollution data, principal component analysis (PCA) is often incorporated to obtain low-rank (LR) structure of the data prior to spatial prediction. Recently developed predictive PCA modifies the traditional algorithm to improve the overall predictive performance by leveraging both LR and spatial structures within the data. However, predictive PCA requires complete data or an initial imputation step. Nonparametric imputation techniques without accounting for spatial information may distort the underlying structure of the data, and thus further reduce the predictive performance. We propose a convex optimization problem inspired by the LR matrix completion framework and develop a proximal algorithm to solve it. Missing data are imputed and handled concurrently within the algorithm, which eliminates the necessity of a separate imputation step. We show that our algorithm has low computational burden and leads to reliable predictive performance as the severity of missing data increases.

Predicting forced displacement is an important undertaking of many humanitarian aid agencies, which must anticipate flows in advance in order to provide vulnerable refugees and Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) with shelter, food, and medical care. While there is a growing interest in using machine learning to better anticipate future arrivals, there is little standardized knowledge on how to predict refugee and IDP flows in practice. Researchers and humanitarian officers are confronted with the need to make decisions about how to structure their datasets and how to fit their problem to predictive analytics approaches, and they must choose from a variety of modeling options. Most of the time, these decisions are made without an understanding of the full range of options that could be considered, and using methodologies that have primarily been applied in different contexts - and with different goals - as opportunistic references. In this work, we attempt to facilitate a more comprehensive understanding of this emerging field of research by providing a systematic model-agnostic framework, adapted to the use of big data sources, for structuring the prediction problem. As we do so, we highlight existing work on predicting refugee and IDP flows. We also draw on our own experience building models to predict forced displacement in Somalia, in order to illustrate the choices facing modelers and point to open research questions that may be used to guide future work.

Missing values in covariates due to censoring by signal interference or lack of sensitivity in the measuring devices are common in industrial problems. We propose a full Bayesian solution to the prediction problem with an efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that updates all the censored covariate values jointly in a random scan Gibbs sampler. We show that the joint updating of missing covariate values can be at least two orders of magnitude more efficient than univariate updating. This increased efficiency is shown to be crucial for quickly learning the missing covariate values and their uncertainty in a real-time decision making context, in particular when there is substantial correlation in the posterior for the missing values. The approach is evaluated on simulated data and on data from the telecom sector. Our results show that the proposed Bayesian imputation gives substantially more accurate predictions than na\"ive imputation, and that the use of auxiliary variables in the imputation gives additional predictive power.

Deep learning models have shown great potential for image-based diagnosis assisting clinical decision making. At the same time, an increasing number of reports raise concerns about the potential risk that machine learning could amplify existing health disparities due to human biases that are embedded in the training data. It is of great importance to carefully investigate the extent to which biases may be reproduced or even amplified if we wish to build fair artificial intelligence systems. Seyyed-Kalantari et al. advance this conversation by analysing the performance of a disease classifier across population subgroups. They raise performance disparities related to underdiagnosis as a point of concern; we identify areas from this analysis which we believe deserve additional attention. Specifically, we wish to highlight some theoretical and practical difficulties associated with assessing model fairness through testing on data drawn from the same biased distribution as the training data, especially when the sources and amount of biases are unknown.

We consider answering queries on data available through access methods, that provide lookup access to the tuples matching a given binding. Such interfaces are common on the Web; further, they often have bounds on how many results they can return, e.g., because of pagination or rate limits. We thus study result-bounded methods, which may return only a limited number of tuples. We study how to decide if a query is answerable using result-bounded methods, i.e., how to compute a plan that returns all answers to the query using the methods, assuming that the underlying data satisfies some integrity constraints. We first show how to reduce answerability to a query containment problem with constraints. Second, we show "schema simplification" theorems describing when and how result-bounded services can be used. Finally, we use these theorems to give decidability and complexity results about answerability for common constraint classes.

Although Raman spectroscopy is widely used for the investigation of biomedical samples and has a high potential for use in clinical applications, it is not common in clinical routines. One of the factors that obstruct the integration of Raman spectroscopic tools into clinical routines is the complexity of the data processing workflow. Software tools that simplify spectroscopic data handling may facilitate such integration by familiarizing clinical experts with the advantages of Raman spectroscopy. Here, RAMANMETRIX is introduced as a user-friendly software with an intuitive web-based graphical user interface (GUI) that incorporates a complete workflow for chemometric analysis of Raman spectra, from raw data pretreatment to a robust validation of machine learning models. The software can be used both for model training and for the application of the pretrained models onto new data sets. Users have full control of the parameters during model training, but the testing data flow is frozen and does not require additional user input. RAMANMETRIX is available in two versions: as standalone software and web application. Due to the modern software architecture, the computational backend part can be executed separately from the GUI and accessed through an application programming interface (API) for applying a preconstructed model to the measured data. This opens up possibilities for using the software as a data processing backend for the measurement devices in real-time. The models preconstructed by more experienced users can be exported and reused for easy one-click data preprocessing and prediction, which requires minimal interaction between the user and the software. The results of such prediction and graphical outputs of the different data processing steps can be exported and saved.

A tensor is a multi-way array that can represent, in addition to a data set, the expression of a joint law or a multivariate function. As such it contains the description of the interactions between the variables corresponding to each of the entries. The rank of a tensor extends to arrays with more than two entries the notion of rank of a matrix, bearing in mind that there are several approaches to build such an extension. When the rank is one, the variables are separated, and when it is low, the variables are weakly coupled. Many calculations are simpler on tensors of low rank. Furthermore, approximating a given tensor by a low-rank tensor makes it possible to compute some characteristics of a table, such as the partition function when it is a joint law. In this note, we present in detail an integrated and progressive approach to approximate a given tensor by a tensor of lower rank, through a systematic use of tensor algebra. The notion of tensor is rigorously defined, then elementary but useful operations on tensors are presented. After recalling several different notions for extending the rank to tensors, we show how these elementary operations can be combined to build best low rank approximation algorithms. The last chapter is devoted to applying this approach to tensors constructed as the discretisation of a multivariate function, to show that on a Cartesian grid, the rank of such tensors is expected to be low.

With the continuous rise of the COVID-19 cases worldwide, it is imperative to ensure that all those vulnerable countries lacking vaccine resources can receive sufficient support to contain the risks. COVAX is such an initiative operated by the WHO to supply vaccines to the most needed countries. One critical problem faced by the COVAX is how to distribute the limited amount of vaccines to these countries in the most efficient and equitable manner. This paper aims to address this challenge by first proposing a data-driven risk assessment and prediction model and then developing a decision-making framework to support the strategic vaccine distribution. The machine learning-based risk prediction model characterizes how the risk is influenced by the underlying essential factors, e.g., the vaccination level among the population in each COVAX country. This predictive model is then leveraged to design the optimal vaccine distribution strategy that simultaneously minimizes the resulting risks while maximizing the vaccination coverage in these countries targeted by COVAX. Finally, we corroborate the proposed framework using case studies with real-world data.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been studied from the lens of expressive power and generalization. However, their optimization properties are less well understood. We take the first step towards analyzing GNN training by studying the gradient dynamics of GNNs. First, we analyze linearized GNNs and prove that despite the non-convexity of training, convergence to a global minimum at a linear rate is guaranteed under mild assumptions that we validate on real-world graphs. Second, we study what may affect the GNNs' training speed. Our results show that the training of GNNs is implicitly accelerated by skip connections, more depth, and/or a good label distribution. Empirical results confirm that our theoretical results for linearized GNNs align with the training behavior of nonlinear GNNs. Our results provide the first theoretical support for the success of GNNs with skip connections in terms of optimization, and suggest that deep GNNs with skip connections would be promising in practice.

The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.