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Numerical predictions of quantities of interest measured within physical systems rely on the use of mathematical models that should be validated, or at best, not invalidated. Model validation usually involves the comparison of experimental data (outputs from the system of interest) and model predictions, both obtained at a specific validation scenario. The design of this validation experiment should be directly relevant to the objective of the model, that of predicting a quantity of interest at a prediction scenario. In this paper, we address two specific issues arising when designing validation experiments. The first issue consists in determining an appropriate validation scenario in cases where the prediction scenario cannot be carried out in a controlled environment. The second issue concerns the selection of observations when the quantity of interest cannot be readily observed. The proposed methodology involves the computation of influence matrices that characterize the response surface of given model functionals. Minimization of the distance between influence matrices allow one for selecting a validation experiment most representative of the prediction scenario. We illustrate our approach on two numerical examples. The first example considers the validation of a simple model based on an ordinary differential equation governing an object in free fall to put in evidence the importance of the choice of the validation experiment. The second numerical experiment focuses on the transport of a pollutant and demonstrates the impact that the choice of the quantity of interest has on the validation experiment to be performed.

We explore the features of two methods of stabilization, aggregation and supremizer methods, for reduced-order modeling of parametrized optimal control problems. In both methods, the reduced basis spaces are augmented to guarantee stability. For the aggregation method, the reduced basis approximation spaces for the state and adjoint variables are augmented in such a way that the spaces are identical. For the supremizer method, the reduced basis approximation space for the state-control product space is augmented with the solutions of a supremizer equation. We implement both of these methods for solving several parametrized control problems and assess their performance. Results indicate that the number of reduced basis vectors needed to approximate the solution space to some tolerance with the supremizer method is much larger, possibly double, that for aggregation. There are also some cases where the supremizer method fails to produce a converged solution. We present results to compare the accuracy, efficiency, and computational costs associated with both methods of stabilization which suggest that stabilization by aggregation is a superior stabilization method for control problems.

When choosing estimands and estimators in randomized clinical trials, caution is warranted as intercurrent events, such as - due to patients who switch treatment after disease progression, are often extreme. Statistical analyses may then easily lure one into making large implicit extrapolations, which often go unnoticed. We will illustrate this problem of implicit extrapolations using a real oncology case study, with a right-censored time-to-event endpoint, in which patients can cross over from the control to the experimental treatment after disease progression, for ethical reasons. We resolve this by developing an estimator for the survival risk ratio contrasting the survival probabilities at each time t if all patients would take experimental treatment with the survival probabilities at those times t if all patients would take control treatment up to time t, using randomization as an instrumental variable to avoid reliance on no unmeasured confounders assumptions. This doubly robust estimator can handle time-varying treatment switches and right-censored survival times. Insight into the rationale behind the estimator is provided and the approach is demonstrated by re-analyzing the oncology trial.

Making causal inferences from observational studies can be challenging when confounders are missing not at random. In such cases, identifying causal effects is often not guaranteed. Motivated by a real example, we consider a treatment-independent missingness assumption under which we establish the identification of causal effects when confounders are missing not at random. We propose a weighted estimating equation (WEE) approach for estimating model parameters and introduce three estimators for the average causal effect, based on regression, propensity score weighting, and doubly robust methods. We evaluate the performance of these estimators through simulations, and provide a real data analysis to illustrate our proposed method.

Existing weakly supervised sound event detection (WSSED) work has not explored both types of co-occurrences simultaneously, i.e., some sound events often co-occur, and their occurrences are usually accompanied by specific background sounds, so they would be inevitably entangled, causing misclassification and biased localization results with only clip-level supervision. To tackle this issue, we first establish a structural causal model (SCM) to reveal that the context is the main cause of co-occurrence confounders that mislead the model to learn spurious correlations between frames and clip-level labels. Based on the causal analysis, we propose a causal intervention (CI) method for WSSED to remove the negative impact of co-occurrence confounders by iteratively accumulating every possible context of each class and then re-projecting the contexts to the frame-level features for making the event boundary clearer. Experiments show that our method effectively improves the performance on multiple datasets and can generalize to various baseline models.

The heterogeneous, geographically distributed infrastructure of fog computing poses challenges in data replication, data distribution, and data mobility for fog applications. Fog computing is still missing the necessary abstractions to manage application data, and fog application developers need to re-implement data management for every new piece of software. Proposed solutions are limited to certain application domains, such as the IoT, are not flexible in regard to network topology, or do not provide the means for applications to control the movement of their data. In this paper, we present FReD, a data replication middleware for the fog. FReD serves as a building block for configurable fog data distribution and enables low-latency, high-bandwidth, and privacy-sensitive applications. FReD is a common data access interface across heterogeneous infrastructure and network topologies, provides transparent and controllable data distribution, and can be integrated with applications from different domains. To evaluate our approach, we present a prototype implementation of FReD and show the benefits of developing with FReD using three case studies of fog computing applications.

This work considers Gaussian process interpolation with a periodized version of the Mat{\'e}rn covariance function introduced by Stein (22, Section 6.7). Convergence rates are studied for the joint maximum likelihood estimation of the regularity and the amplitude parameters when the data is sampled according to the model. The mean integrated squared error is also analyzed with fixed and estimated parameters, showing that maximum likelihood estimation yields asymptotically the same error as if the ground truth was known. Finally, the case where the observed function is a fixed deterministic element of a Sobolev space of continuous functions is also considered, suggesting that bounding assumptions on some parameters can lead to different estimates.

We study the joint occurrence of large values of a Markov random field or undirected graphical model associated to a block graph. On such graphs, containing trees as special cases, we aim to generalize recent results for extremes of Markov trees. Every pair of nodes in a block graph is connected by a unique shortest path. These paths are shown to determine the limiting distribution of the properly rescaled random field given that a fixed variable exceeds a high threshold. The latter limit relation implies that the random field is multivariate regularly varying and it determines the max-stable distribution to which component-wise maxima of independent random samples from the field are attracted. When the sub-vectors induced by the blocks have certain limits parametrized by H\"usler-Reiss distributions, the global Markov property of the original field induces a particular structure on the parameter matrix of the limiting max-stable H\"usler-Reiss distribution. The multivariate Pareto version of the latter turns out to be an extremal graphical model according to the original block graph. Thanks to these algebraic relations, the parameters are still identifiable even if some variables are latent.

Analyzing observational data from multiple sources can be useful for increasing statistical power to detect a treatment effect; however, practical constraints such as privacy considerations may restrict individual-level information sharing across data sets. This paper develops federated methods that only utilize summary-level information from heterogeneous data sets. Our federated methods provide doubly-robust point estimates of treatment effects as well as variance estimates. We derive the asymptotic distributions of our federated estimators, which are shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding estimators from the combined, individual-level data. We show that to achieve these properties, federated methods should be adjusted based on conditions such as whether models are correctly specified and stable across heterogeneous data sets.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.