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Besov priors are nonparametric priors that model spatially inhomogeneous functions. They are routinely used in inverse problems and imaging, where they exhibit attractive sparsity-promoting and edge-preserving features. A recent line of work has initiated the study of their asymptotic frequentist convergence properties. In the present paper, we consider the theoretical recovery performance of the posterior distributions associated to Besov-Laplace priors in the density estimation model, under the assumption that the observations are generated by a possibly spatially inhomogeneous true density belonging to a Besov space. We improve on existing results and show that carefully tuned Besov-Laplace priors attain optimal posterior contraction rates. Furthermore, we show that hierarchical procedures involving a hyper-prior on the regularity parameter lead to adaptation to any smoothness level.

As phasor measurement units (PMUs) become more widely used in transmission power systems, a fast state estimation (SE) algorithm that can take advantage of their high sample rates is needed. To accomplish this, we present a method that uses graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn complex bus voltage estimates from PMU voltage and current measurements. We propose an original implementation of GNNs over the power system's factor graph to simplify the integration of various types and quantities of measurements on power system buses and branches. Furthermore, we augment the factor graph to improve the robustness of GNN predictions. This model is highly efficient and scalable, as its computational complexity is linear with respect to the number of nodes in the power system. Training and test examples were generated by randomly sampling sets of power system measurements and annotated with the exact solutions of linear SE with PMUs. The numerical results demonstrate that the GNN model provides an accurate approximation of the SE solutions. Furthermore, errors caused by PMU malfunctions or communication failures that would normally make the SE problem unobservable have a local effect and do not deteriorate the results in the rest of the power system.

To estimate causal effects, analysts performing observational studies in health settings utilize several strategies to mitigate bias due to confounding by indication. There are two broad classes of approaches for these purposes: use of confounders and instrumental variables (IVs). Because such approaches are largely characterized by untestable assumptions, analysts must operate under an indefinite paradigm that these methods will work imperfectly. In this tutorial, we formalize a set of general principles and heuristics for estimating causal effects in the two approaches when the assumptions are potentially violated. This crucially requires reframing the process of observational studies as hypothesizing potential scenarios where the estimates from one approach are less inconsistent than the other. While most of our discussion of methodology centers around the linear setting, we touch upon complexities in non-linear settings and flexible procedures such as target minimum loss-based estimation (TMLE) and double machine learning (DML). To demonstrate the application of our principles, we investigate the use of donepezil off-label for mild cognitive impairment (MCI). We compare and contrast results from confounder and IV methods, traditional and flexible, within our analysis and to a similar observational study and clinical trial.

We study the classical problem of predicting an outcome variable, $Y$, using a linear combination of a $d$-dimensional covariate vector, $\mathbf{X}$. We are interested in linear predictors whose coefficients solve: % \begin{align*} \inf_{\boldsymbol{\beta} \in \mathbb{R}^d} \left( \mathbb{E}_{\mathbb{P}_n} \left[ \left(Y-\mathbf{X}^{\top}\beta \right)^r \right] \right)^{1/r} +\delta \, \rho\left(\boldsymbol{\beta}\right), \end{align*} where $\delta>0$ is a regularization parameter, $\rho:\mathbb{R}^d\to \mathbb{R}_+$ is a convex penalty function, $\mathbb{P}_n$ is the empirical distribution of the data, and $r\geq 1$. We present three sets of new results. First, we provide conditions under which linear predictors based on these estimators % solve a \emph{distributionally robust optimization} problem: they minimize the worst-case prediction error over distributions that are close to each other in a type of \emph{max-sliced Wasserstein metric}. Second, we provide a detailed finite-sample and asymptotic analysis of the statistical properties of the balls of distributions over which the worst-case prediction error is analyzed. Third, we use the distributionally robust optimality and our statistical analysis to present i) an oracle recommendation for the choice of regularization parameter, $\delta$, that guarantees good out-of-sample prediction error; and ii) a test-statistic to rank the out-of-sample performance of two different linear estimators. None of our results rely on sparsity assumptions about the true data generating process; thus, they broaden the scope of use of the square-root lasso and related estimators in prediction problems.

Sparse model identification enables nonlinear dynamical system discovery from data. However, the control of false discoveries for sparse model identification is challenging, especially in the low-data and high-noise limit. In this paper, we perform a theoretical study on ensemble sparse model discovery, which shows empirical success in terms of accuracy and robustness to noise. In particular, we analyse the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares estimator. We show that this bootstrapping-based ensembling technique can perform a provably correct variable selection procedure with an exponential convergence rate of the error rate. In addition, we show that the ensemble sparse model discovery method can perform computationally efficient uncertainty estimation, compared to expensive Bayesian uncertainty quantification methods via MCMC. We demonstrate the convergence properties and connection to uncertainty quantification in various numerical studies on synthetic sparse linear regression and sparse model discovery. The experiments on sparse linear regression support that the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method has better performance for sparse variable selection compared to LASSO, thresholding least-squares, and bootstrapping-based LASSO. In the sparse model discovery experiment, we show that the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method can provide valid uncertainty quantification, converging to a delta measure centered around the true value with increased sample sizes. Finally, we highlight the improved robustness to hyperparameter selection under shifting noise and sparsity levels of the bootstrapping-based sequential thresholding least-squares method compared to other sparse regression methods.

The total correlation(TC) is a crucial index to measure the correlation between marginal distribution in multidimensional random variables, and it is frequently applied as an inductive bias in representation learning. Previous research has shown that the TC value can be estimated using mutual information boundaries through decomposition. However, we found through theoretical derivation and qualitative experiments that due to the use of importance sampling in the decomposition process, the bias of TC value estimated based on MI bounds will be amplified when the proposal distribution in the sampling differs significantly from the target distribution. To reduce estimation bias issues, we propose a TC estimation correction model based on supervised learning, which uses the training iteration loss sequence of the TC estimator based on MI bounds as input features to output the true TC value. Experiments show that our proposed method can improve the accuracy of TC estimation and eliminate the variance generated by the TC estimation process.

We show that a nonparametric Bayesian inverse problem with a Gaussian prior has a strong maximum a posteriori estimator in the sense of small-ball modes as introduced by Dashti et al. (2013). This result holds in any separable Banach space under mild conditions on the forward operator and extends existing results by significantly relaxing the conditions on the log-likelihood and on the space in which the inverse problem is set.

This paper focuses on the study of the order of power series that are linear combinations of a given finite set of power series. The order of a formal power series, known as $\textrm{ord}(f)$, is defined as the minimum exponent of $x$ that has a non-zero coefficient in $f(x)$. Our first result is that the order of the Wronskian of these power series is equivalent up to a polynomial factor, to the maximum order which occurs in the linear combination of these power series. This implies that the Wronskian approach used in (Kayal and Saha, TOCT'2012) to upper bound the order of sum of square roots is optimal up to a polynomial blowup. We also demonstrate similar upper bounds, similar to those of (Kayal and Saha, TOCT'2012), for the order of power series in a variety of other scenarios. We also solve a special case of the inequality testing problem outlined in (Etessami et al., TOCT'2014). In the second part of the paper, we study the equality variant of the sum of square roots problem, which is decidable in polynomial time due to (Bl\"omer, FOCS'1991). We investigate a natural generalization of this problem when the input integers are given as straight line programs. Under the assumption of the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis (GRH), we show that this problem can be reduced to the so-called ``one dimensional'' variant. We identify the key mathematical challenges for solving this ``one dimensional'' variant.

This paper presents an accelerated proximal gradient method for multiobjective optimization, in which each objective function is the sum of a continuously differentiable, convex function and a closed, proper, convex function. Extending first-order methods for multiobjective problems without scalarization has been widely studied, but providing accelerated methods with accurate proofs of convergence rates remains an open problem. Our proposed method is a multiobjective generalization of the accelerated proximal gradient method, also known as the Fast Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (FISTA), for scalar optimization. The key to this successful extension is solving a subproblem with terms exclusive to the multiobjective case. This approach allows us to demonstrate the global convergence rate of the proposed method ($O(1 / k^2)$), using a merit function to measure the complexity. Furthermore, we present an efficient way to solve the subproblem via its dual representation, and we confirm the validity of the proposed method through some numerical experiments.

We propose a novel nonparametric regression framework subject to the positive definiteness constraint. It offers a highly modular approach for estimating covariance functions of stationary processes. Our method can impose positive definiteness, as well as isotropy and monotonicity, on the estimators, and its hyperparameters can be decided using cross validation. We define our estimators by taking integral transforms of kernel-based distribution surrogates. We then use the iterated density estimation evolutionary algorithm, a variant of estimation of distribution algorithms, to fit the estimators. We also extend our method to estimate covariance functions for point-referenced data. Compared to alternative approaches, our method provides more reliable estimates for long-range dependence. Several numerical studies are performed to demonstrate the efficacy and performance of our method. Also, we illustrate our method using precipitation data from the Spatial Interpolation Comparison 97 project.