We present the methods employed by team `Uniofbathtopia' as part of the Data Challenge organised for the 13th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis (EVA2023), including our winning entry for the third sub-challenge. Our approaches unite ideas from extreme value theory, which provides a statistical framework for the estimation of probabilities/return levels associated with rare events, with techniques from unsupervised statistical learning, such as clustering and support identification. The methods are demonstrated on the data provided for the Data Challenge -- environmental data sampled from the fantasy country of `Utopia' -- but the underlying assumptions and frameworks should apply in more general settings and applications.
Single-elimination (SE) tournaments are a popular format used in competitive environments and decision making. Algorithms for SE tournament manipulation have been an active topic of research in recent years. In this paper, we initiate the algorithmic study of a novel variant of SE tournament manipulation that aims to model the fact that certain matchups are highly desired in a sporting context, incentivizing an organizer to manipulate the bracket to make such matchups take place. We obtain both hardness and tractability results. We show that while the problem of computing a bracket enforcing a given set of matches in an SE tournament is NP-hard, there are natural restrictions that lead to polynomial-time solvability. In particular, we show polynomial-time solvability if there is a linear ordering on the ability of players with only a constant number of exceptions where a player with lower ability beats a player with higher ability.
Modern SAT and SMT solvers are designed to handle problems expressed in Conjunctive Normal Form (CNF) so that non-CNF problems must be CNF-ized upfront, typically by using variants of either Tseitin or Plaisted and Greenbaum transformations. When passing from solving to enumeration, however, the capability of producing partial satisfying assignments that are as small as possible becomes crucial, which raises the question of whether such CNF encodings are also effective for enumeration. In this paper, we investigate both theoretically and empirically the effectiveness of CNF conversions for SAT and SMT enumeration. On the negative side, we show that: (i) Tseitin transformation prevents the solver from producing short partial assignments, thus seriously affecting the effectiveness of enumeration; (ii) Plaisted and Greenbaum transformation overcomes this problem only in part. On the positive side, we prove theoretically and we show empirically that combining Plaisted and Greenbaum transformation with NNF preprocessing upfront -- which is typically not used in solving -- can fully overcome the problem and can drastically reduce both the number of partial assignments and the execution time.
Time Series Supplier Allocation (TSSA) poses a complex NP-hard challenge, aimed at refining future order dispatching strategies to satisfy order demands with maximum supply efficiency fully. Traditionally derived from financial portfolio management, the Black-Litterman (BL) model offers a new perspective for the TSSA scenario by balancing expected returns against insufficient supply risks. However, its application within TSSA is constrained by the reliance on manually constructed perspective matrices and spatio-temporal market dynamics, coupled with the absence of supervisory signals and data unreliability inherent to supplier information. To solve these limitations, we introduce the pioneering Deep Black-Litterman Model (DBLM), which innovatively adapts the BL model from financial roots to supply chain context. Leveraging the Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNS), DBLM automatically generates future perspective matrices for TSSA, by integrating spatio-temporal dependency. Moreover, a novel Spearman rank correlation distinctively supervises our approach to address the lack of supervisory signals, specifically designed to navigate through the complexities of supplier risks and interactions. This is further enhanced by a masking mechanism aimed at counteracting the biases from unreliable data, thereby improving the model's precision and reliability. Extensive experimentation on two datasets unequivocally demonstrates DBLM's enhanced performance in TSSA, setting new standards for the field. Our findings and methodology are made available for community access and further development.
Despite recent community revelations about the advancements and potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) in understanding Text-Attributed Graphs (TAG), the deployment of LLMs for production is hindered by their high computational and storage requirements, as well as long latencies during inference. Simultaneously, although traditional Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are light weight and adept at learning structural features of graphs, their ability to grasp the complex semantics in TAGs is somewhat constrained for real applications. To address these limitations, we concentrate on the downstream task of node classification in TAG and propose a novel graph knowledge distillation framework, termed Linguistic Graph Knowledge Distillation (LinguGKD), using LLMs as teacher models and GNNs as student models for knowledge distillation. It involves TAG-oriented instruction tuning of LLM on designed node classification prompts, followed by aligning the hierarchically learned node features of the teacher LLM and the student GNN in latent space, employing a layer-adaptive contrastive learning strategy. Through extensive experiments on a variety of LLM and GNN models and multiple benchmark datasets, the proposed LinguGKD significantly boosts the student GNN's predictive accuracy and convergence rate, without the need of extra data or model parameters. Compared to teacher LLM, distilled GNN achieves superior inference speed equipped with much fewer computing and storage demands, when surpassing the teacher LLM's classification performance on some of benchmark datasets.
This paper presents a method for performing Uncertainty Quantification in high-dimensional uncertain spaces by combining arbitrary polynomial chaos with a recently proposed scheme for sensitivity enhancement (1). Including available sensitivity information offers a way to mitigate the curse of dimensionality in Polynomial Chaos Expansions (PCEs). Coupling the sensitivity enhancement to arbitrary Polynomial Chaos allows the formulation to be extended to a wide range of stochastic processes, including multi-modal, fat-tailed, and truncated probability distributions. In so doing, this work addresses two of the barriers to widespread industrial application of PCEs. The method is demonstrated for a number of synthetic test cases, including an uncertainty analysis of a Finite Element structure, determined using Topology Optimisation, with 306 uncertain inputs. We demonstrate that by exploiting sensitivity information, PCEs can feasibly be applied to such problems and through the Sobol sensitivity indices, can allow a designer to easily visualise the spatial distribution of the contributions to uncertainty in the structure.
In this work we study the enhancement of Low Rank Adaptation (LoRA) fine-tuning procedure by introducing a Riemannian preconditioner in its optimization step. Specifically, we introduce an $r\times r$ preconditioner in each gradient step where $r$ is the LoRA rank. This preconditioner requires a small change to existing optimizer code and creates virtually minuscule storage and runtime overhead. Our experimental results with both large language models and text-to-image diffusion models show that with our preconditioner, the convergence and reliability of SGD and AdamW can be significantly enhanced. Moreover, the training process becomes much more robust to hyperparameter choices such as learning rate. Theoretically, we show that fine-tuning a two-layer ReLU network in the convex paramaterization with our preconditioner has convergence rate independent of condition number of the data matrix. This new Riemannian preconditioner, previously explored in classic low-rank matrix recovery, is introduced to deep learning tasks for the first time in our work. We release our code at //github.com/pilancilab/Riemannian_Preconditioned_LoRA.
Pre-trained Code Language Models (Code-PLMs) have shown many advancements and achieved state-of-the-art results for many software engineering tasks in the past few years. These models are mainly targeted for popular programming languages such as Java and Python, leaving out many other ones like R. Though R has a wide community of developers and users, there is little known about the applicability of Code-PLMs for R. In this preliminary study, we aim to investigate the vulnerability of Code-PLMs for code entities in R. For this purpose, we use an R dataset of code and comment pairs and then apply CodeAttack, a black-box attack model that uses the structure of code to generate adversarial code samples. We investigate how the model can attack different entities in R. This is the first step towards understanding the importance of R token types, compared to popular programming languages (e.g., Java). We limit our study to code summarization. Our results show that the most vulnerable code entity is the identifier, followed by some syntax tokens specific to R. The results can shed light on the importance of token types and help in developing models for code summarization and method name prediction for the R language.
This work aims to provide an engagement decision support tool for Beyond Visual Range (BVR) air combat in the context of Defensive Counter Air (DCA) missions. In BVR air combat, engagement decision refers to the choice of the moment the pilot engages a target by assuming an offensive stance and executing corresponding maneuvers. To model this decision, we use the Brazilian Air Force's Aerospace Simulation Environment (\textit{Ambiente de Simula\c{c}\~ao Aeroespacial - ASA} in Portuguese), which generated 3,729 constructive simulations lasting 12 minutes each and a total of 10,316 engagements. We analyzed all samples by an operational metric called the DCA index, which represents, based on the experience of subject matter experts, the degree of success in this type of mission. This metric considers the distances of the aircraft of the same team and the opposite team, the point of Combat Air Patrol, and the number of missiles used. By defining the engagement status right before it starts and the average of the DCA index throughout the engagement, we create a supervised learning model to determine the quality of a new engagement. An algorithm based on decision trees, working with the XGBoost library, provides a regression model to predict the DCA index with a coefficient of determination close to 0.8 and a Root Mean Square Error of 0.05 that can furnish parameters to the BVR pilot to decide whether or not to engage. Thus, using data obtained through simulations, this work contributes by building a decision support system based on machine learning for BVR air combat.
We present CURL: Contrastive Unsupervised Representations for Reinforcement Learning. CURL extracts high-level features from raw pixels using contrastive learning and performs off-policy control on top of the extracted features. CURL outperforms prior pixel-based methods, both model-based and model-free, on complex tasks in the DeepMind Control Suite and Atari Games showing 1.9x and 1.6x performance gains at the 100K environment and interaction steps benchmarks respectively. On the DeepMind Control Suite, CURL is the first image-based algorithm to nearly match the sample-efficiency and performance of methods that use state-based features.
Properly handling missing data is a fundamental challenge in recommendation. Most present works perform negative sampling from unobserved data to supply the training of recommender models with negative signals. Nevertheless, existing negative sampling strategies, either static or adaptive ones, are insufficient to yield high-quality negative samples --- both informative to model training and reflective of user real needs. In this work, we hypothesize that item knowledge graph (KG), which provides rich relations among items and KG entities, could be useful to infer informative and factual negative samples. Towards this end, we develop a new negative sampling model, Knowledge Graph Policy Network (KGPolicy), which works as a reinforcement learning agent to explore high-quality negatives. Specifically, by conducting our designed exploration operations, it navigates from the target positive interaction, adaptively receives knowledge-aware negative signals, and ultimately yields a potential negative item to train the recommender. We tested on a matrix factorization (MF) model equipped with KGPolicy, and it achieves significant improvements over both state-of-the-art sampling methods like DNS and IRGAN, and KG-enhanced recommender models like KGAT. Further analyses from different angles provide insights of knowledge-aware sampling. We release the codes and datasets at //github.com/xiangwang1223/kgpolicy.