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We introduce a hull operator on Poisson point processes, the easiest example being the convex hull of the support of a point process in Euclidean space. Assuming that the intensity measure of the process is known on the set generated by the hull operator, we discuss estimation of the expected linear statistics built on the Poisson process. In special cases, our general scheme yields an estimator of the volume of a convex body or an estimator of an integral of a H\"older function. We show that the estimation error is given by the Kabanov--Skorohod integral with respect to the underlying Poisson process. A crucial ingredient of our approach is a spatial Markov property of the underlying Poisson process with respect to the hull. We derive the rate of normal convergence for the estimation error, and illustrate it on an application to estimators of integrals of a H\"older function. We also discuss estimation of higher order symmetric statistics.

Burst super-resolution (SR) technique provides a possibility of restoring rich details from low-quality images. However, since real world low-resolution (LR) images in practical applications have multiple complicated and unknown degradations, existing non-blind (e.g., bicubic) designed networks usually suffer severe performance drop in recovering high-resolution (HR) images. In this paper, we address the problem of reconstructing HR images from raw burst sequences acquired from a modern handheld device. The central idea is a kernel-guided strategy which can solve the burst SR problem with two steps: kernel estimation and HR image restoration. The former estimates burst kernels from raw inputs, while the latter predicts the super-resolved image based on the estimated kernels. Furthermore, we introduce a pyramid kernel-aware deformable alignment module which can effectively align the raw images with consideration of the blurry priors. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that the proposed method can perform favorable state-of-the-art performance in the burst SR problem. Our codes are available at \url{//github.com/shermanlian/KBNet}.

Test error estimation is a fundamental problem in statistics and machine learning. Correctly assessing the future performance of an algorithm is an essential task, especially with the development of complex predictive algorithms that require data-driven parameter tuning. We propose a new coupled bootstrap estimator for the test error of Poisson-response algorithms, a fundamental model for count data and with applications such as signal processing, density estimation, and queue theory. The idea behind our estimator is to generate two carefully designed new random vectors from the original data, where one acts as a training sample and the other as a test set. It is unbiased for an intuitive parameter: the out-of-sample error of a Poisson random vector whose mean has been shrunken by a small factor. Moreover, in a limiting regime, the coupled bootstrap estimator recovers an exactly unbiased estimator for test error. Our framework is applicable to loss functions of the Bregman divergence family, and our analysis and examples focus on two important cases: Poisson likelihood deviance and squared loss. Through a bias-variance decomposition, we analyze the effect of the number of bootstrap samples and the added noise due to the two auxiliary variables. We then apply our method to different scenarios with both simulated and real data.

After being trained on a fully-labeled training set, where the observations are grouped into a certain number of known classes, novelty detection methods aim to classify the instances of an unlabeled test set while allowing for the presence of previously unseen classes. These models are valuable in many areas, ranging from social network and food adulteration analyses to biology, where an evolving population may be present. In this paper, we focus on a two-stage Bayesian semiparametric novelty detector, also known as Brand, recently introduced in the literature. Leveraging on a model-based mixture representation, Brand allows clustering the test observations into known training terms or a single novelty term. Furthermore, the novelty term is modeled with a Dirichlet Process mixture model to flexibly capture any departure from the known patterns. Brand was originally estimated using MCMC schemes, which are prohibitively costly when applied to high-dimensional data. To scale up Brand applicability to large datasets, we propose to resort to a variational Bayes approach, providing an efficient algorithm for posterior approximation. We demonstrate a significant gain in efficiency and excellent classification performance with thorough simulation studies. Finally, to showcase its applicability, we perform a novelty detection analysis using the openly-available Statlog dataset, a large collection of satellite imaging spectra, to search for novel soil types.

Pervasive cross-section dependence is increasingly recognized as a characteristic of economic data and the approximate factor model provides a useful framework for analysis. Assuming a strong factor structure where $\Lop\Lo/N^\alpha$ is positive definite in the limit when $\alpha=1$, early work established convergence of the principal component estimates of the factors and loadings up to a rotation matrix. This paper shows that the estimates are still consistent and asymptotically normal when $\alpha\in(0,1]$ albeit at slower rates and under additional assumptions on the sample size. The results hold whether $\alpha$ is constant or varies across factors. The framework developed for heterogeneous loadings and the simplified proofs that can be also used in strong analysis are of independent interest

We consider the problem of reconstructing the signal and the hidden variables from observations coming from a multi-layer network with rotationally invariant weight matrices. The multi-layer structure models inference from deep generative priors, and the rotational invariance imposed on the weights generalizes the i.i.d.\ Gaussian assumption by allowing for a complex correlation structure, which is typical in applications. In this work, we present a new class of approximate message passing (AMP) algorithms and give a state evolution recursion which precisely characterizes their performance in the large system limit. In contrast with the existing multi-layer VAMP (ML-VAMP) approach, our proposed AMP -- dubbed multi-layer rotationally invariant generalized AMP (ML-RI-GAMP) -- provides a natural generalization beyond Gaussian designs, in the sense that it recovers the existing Gaussian AMP as a special case. Furthermore, ML-RI-GAMP exhibits a significantly lower complexity than ML-VAMP, as the computationally intensive singular value decomposition is replaced by an estimation of the moments of the design matrices. Finally, our numerical results show that this complexity gain comes at little to no cost in the performance of the algorithm.

Referred to as the third rung of the causal inference ladder, counterfactual queries typically ask the "What if ?" question retrospectively. The standard approach to estimate counterfactuals resides in using a structural equation model that accurately reflects the underlying data generating process. However, such models are seldom available in practice and one usually wishes to infer them from observational data alone. Unfortunately, the correct structural equation model is in general not identifiable from the observed factual distribution. Nevertheless, in this work, we show that under the assumption that the main latent contributors to the treatment responses are categorical, the counterfactuals can be still reliably predicted. Building upon this assumption, we introduce CounterFactual Query Prediction (CFQP), a novel method to infer counterfactuals from continuous observations when the background variables are categorical. We show that our method significantly outperforms previously available deep-learning-based counterfactual methods, both theoretically and empirically on time series and image data. Our code is available at //github.com/edebrouwer/cfqp.

Most common Optimal Transport (OT) solvers are currently based on an approximation of underlying measures by discrete measures. However, it is sometimes relevant to work only with moments of measures instead of the measure itself, and many common OT problems can be formulated as moment problems (the most relevant examples being $L^p$-Wasserstein distances, barycenters, and Gromov-Wasserstein discrepancies on Euclidean spaces). We leverage this fact to develop a generalized moment formulation that covers these classes of OT problems. The transport plan is represented through its moments on a given basis, and the marginal constraints are expressed in terms of moment constraints. A practical computation then consists in considering a truncation of the involved moment sequences up to a certain order, and using the polynomial sums-of-squares hierarchy for measures supported on semi-algebraic sets. We prove that the strategy converges to the solution of the OT problem as the order increases. We also show how to approximate linear quantities of interest, and how to estimate the support of the optimal transport map from the computed moments using Christoffel-Darboux kernels. Numerical experiments illustrate the good behavior of the approach.

Tests for structural breaks in time series should ideally be sensitive to breaks in the parameter of interest, while being robust to nuisance changes. Statistical analysis thus needs to allow for some form of nonstationarity under the null hypothesis of no change. In this paper, estimators for integrated parameters of locally stationary time series are constructed and a corresponding functional central limit theorem is established, enabling change-point inference for a broad class of parameters under mild assumptions. The proposed framework covers all parameters which may be expressed as nonlinear functions of moments, for example kurtosis, autocorrelation, and coefficients in a linear regression model. To perform feasible inference based on the derived limit distribution, a bootstrap variant is proposed and its consistency is established. The methodology is illustrated by means of a simulation study and by an application to high-frequency asset prices.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.