The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in between such events which combines different candidate models for such behaviour. This allows us to distinguish data generating mechanisms leading to clusters of dependent events with exponential inter-exceedance times in between clusters from independent events with heavy-tailed inter-exceedance times, and even allows us to combine these two mechanisms for better descriptions of such occurrences. We investigate a modification of the Cram\'er-von Mises distance for the purpose of model fitting. An application to mid-latitude winter cyclones illustrates the usefulness of our work.
相關內容
A key challenge when trying to understand innovation is that it is a dynamic, ongoing process, which can be highly contingent on ephemeral factors such as culture, economics, or luck. This means that any analysis of the real-world process must necessarily be historical - and thus probably too late to be most useful - but also cannot be sure what the properties of the web of connections between innovations is or was. Here I try to address this by designing and generating a set of synthetic innovation web "dictionaries" that can be used to host sampled innovation timelines, probe the overall statistics and behaviours of these processes, and determine the degree of their reliance on the structure or generating algorithm. Thus, inspired by the work of Fink, Reeves, Palma and Farr (2017) on innovation in language, gastronomy, and technology, I study how new symbol discovery manifests itself in terms of additional "word" vocabulary being available from dictionaries generated from a finite number of symbols. Several distinct dictionary generation models are investigated using numerical simulation, with emphasis on the scaling of knowledge as dictionary generators and parameters are varied, and the role of which order the symbols are discovered in.
There has been significant progress in the study of sampling discretization of integral norms for both a designated finite-dimensional function space and a finite collection of such function spaces (universal discretization). Sampling discretization results turn out to be very useful in various applications, particularly in sampling recovery. Recent sampling discretization results typically provide existence of good sampling points for discretization. In this paper, we show that independent and identically distributed random points provide good universal discretization with high probability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a simple greedy algorithm based on those points that are good for universal discretization provides excellent sparse recovery results in the square norm.
The automated detection of cancerous tumors has attracted interest mainly during the last decade, due to the necessity of early and efficient diagnosis that will lead to the most effective possible treatment of the impending risk. Several machine learning and artificial intelligence methodologies has been employed aiming to provide trustworthy helping tools that will contribute efficiently to this attempt. In this article, we present a low-complexity convolutional neural network architecture for tumor classification enhanced by a robust image augmentation methodology. The effectiveness of the presented deep learning model has been investigated based on 3 datasets containing brain, kidney and lung images, showing remarkable diagnostic efficiency with classification accuracies of 99.33%, 100% and 99.7% for the 3 datasets respectively. The impact of the augmentation preprocessing step has also been extensively examined using 4 evaluation measures. The proposed low-complexity scheme, in contrast to other models in the literature, renders our model quite robust to cases of overfitting that typically accompany small datasets frequently encountered in medical classification challenges. Finally, the model can be easily re-trained in case additional volume images are included, as its simplistic architecture does not impose a significant computational burden.
Power posteriors "robustify" standard Bayesian inference by raising the likelihood to a constant fractional power, effectively downweighting its influence in the calculation of the posterior. Power posteriors have been shown to be more robust to model misspecification than standard posteriors in many settings. Previous work has shown that power posteriors derived from low-dimensional, parametric locally asymptotically normal models are asymptotically normal (Bernstein-von Mises) even under model misspecification. We extend these results to show that the power posterior moments converge to those of the limiting normal distribution suggested by the Bernstein-von Mises theorem. We then use this result to show that the mean of the power posterior, a point estimator, is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood estimator.
We introduce a general differentiable solver for time-dependent deformation problems with contact and friction. Our approach uses a finite element discretization with a high-order time integrator coupled with the recently proposed incremental potential contact method for handling contact and friction forces to solve PDE- and ODE-constrained optimization problems on scenes with a complex geometry. It support static and dynamic problems and differentiation with respect to all physical parameters involved in the physical problem description, which include shape, material parameters, friction parameters, and initial conditions. Our analytically derived adjoint formulation is efficient, with a small overhead (typically less than 10% for nonlinear problems) over the forward simulation, and shares many similarities with the forward problem, allowing the reuse of large parts of existing forward simulator code. We implement our approach on top of the open-source PolyFEM library, and demonstrate the applicability of our solver to shape design, initial condition optimization, and material estimation on both simulated results and in physical validations.
Sustainability of common-pool resources hinges on the interplay between human and environmental systems. However, there is still a lack of a novel and comprehensive framework for modelling extraction of common-pool resources and cooperation of human agents that can account for different factors that shape the system behavior and outcomes. In particular, we still lack a critical value for ensuring resource sustainability under different scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel framework for studying resource extraction and cooperation in human-environmental systems for common-pool resources. We explore how different factors, such as resource availability and conformity effect, influence the players' decisions and the resource outcomes. We identify critical values for ensuring resource sustainability under various scenarios. We demonstrate the observed phenomena are robust to the complexity and assumptions of the models and discuss implications of our study for policy and practice, as well as the limitations and directions for future research.
Recently, large pre-trained multilingual speech models have shown potential in scaling Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) to many low-resource languages. Some of these models employ language adapters in their formulation, which helps to improve monolingual performance and avoids some of the drawbacks of multi-lingual modeling on resource-rich languages. However, this formulation restricts the usability of these models on code-switched speech, where two languages are mixed together in the same utterance. In this work, we propose ways to effectively fine-tune such models on code-switched speech, by assimilating information from both language adapters at each language adaptation point in the network. We also model code-switching as a sequence of latent binary sequences that can be used to guide the flow of information from each language adapter at the frame level. The proposed approaches are evaluated on three code-switched datasets encompassing Arabic, Mandarin, and Hindi languages paired with English, showing consistent improvements in code-switching performance with at least 10\% absolute reduction in CER across all test sets.
We tackle the extension to the vector-valued case of consistency results for Stepwise Uncertainty Reduction sequential experimental design strategies established in [Bect et al., A supermartingale approach to Gaussian process based sequential design of experiments, Bernoulli 25, 2019]. This lead us in the first place to clarify, assuming a compact index set, how the connection between continuous Gaussian processes and Gaussian measures on the Banach space of continuous functions carries over to vector-valued settings. From there, a number of concepts and properties from the aforementioned paper can be readily extended. However, vector-valued settings do complicate things for some results, mainly due to the lack of continuity for the pseudo-inverse mapping that affects the conditional mean and covariance function given finitely many pointwise observations. We apply obtained results to the Integrated Bernoulli Variance and the Expected Measure Variance uncertainty functionals employed in [Fossum et al., Learning excursion sets of vector-valued Gaussian random fields for autonomous ocean sampling, The Annals of Applied Statistics 15, 2021] for the estimation for excursion sets of vector-valued functions.
Biomimetic underwater robots use lateral periodic oscillatory motion to propel forward, which is seen in most fishes known as body caudal fin (BCF) propulsion. The lateral oscillatory motion makes slender-bodied fish-like robots roll unstable. Unlike the case of human-engineered aquatic robots, many species of fish can stabilize their roll motion to perturbations arising from the periodic motions of propulsors. To first understand the origin of the roll instability, the objective of this paper is to analyze the parameters affecting the roll-angle stability of an autonomous fish-like underwater swimmer. Eschewing complex models of fluid-structure interaction, we instead consider the roll motion of a nonholonomic system inspired by the Chaplygin sleigh, whose center of mass is above the ground. In past work, the dynamics of a fish-like periodic swimmer have been shown to be similar to that of a Chaplygin sleigh. The Chaplygin sleigh is propelled by periodic torque in the yaw direction. The roll dynamics of the Chaplygin sleigh are linearized and around a nominal limit cycle solution of the planar hydrodynamic Chaplygin sleigh in the reduced velocity space. It is shown that the roll dynamics are then described as a nonhomogeneous Mathieu equation where the periodic yaw motion provides the parametric excitation. We study the added mass effects on the sleigh's linear dynamics and use the Floquet theory to investigate the roll stability due to parametric excitation. We show that fast motions of the model for swimming are frequently associated with roll instability. The paper thus sheds light on the fundamental mechanics that present trade-offs between speed, efficiency, and stability of motion of fish-like robots.
A recent body of work has demonstrated that Transformer embeddings can be linearly decomposed into well-defined sums of factors, that can in turn be related to specific network inputs or components. There is however still a dearth of work studying whether these mathematical reformulations are empirically meaningful. In the present work, we study representations from machine-translation decoders using two of such embedding decomposition methods. Our results indicate that, while decomposition-derived indicators effectively correlate with model performance, variation across different runs suggests a more nuanced take on this question. The high variability of our measurements indicate that geometry reflects model-specific characteristics more than it does sentence-specific computations, and that similar training conditions do not guarantee similar vector spaces.
小貼士
登錄享
相關主題
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191