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We study the problem of uncertainty quantification for time series prediction, with the goal of providing easy-to-use algorithms with formal guarantees. The algorithms we present build upon ideas from conformal prediction and control theory, are able to prospectively model conformal scores in an online setting, and adapt to the presence of systematic errors due to seasonality, trends, and general distribution shifts. Our theory both simplifies and strengthens existing analyses in online conformal prediction. Experiments on 4-week-ahead forecasting of statewide COVID-19 death counts in the U.S. show an improvement in coverage over the ensemble forecaster used in official CDC communications. We also run experiments on predicting electricity demand, market returns, and temperature using autoregressive, Theta, Prophet, and Transformer models. We provide an extendable codebase for testing our methods and for the integration of new algorithms, data sets, and forecasting rules.

To quantify uncertainties in inverse problems of partial differential equations (PDEs), we formulate them into statistical inference problems using Bayes' formula. Recently, well-justified infinite-dimensional Bayesian analysis methods have been developed to construct dimension-independent algorithms. However, there are three challenges for these infinite-dimensional Bayesian methods: prior measures usually act as regularizers and are not able to incorporate prior information efficiently; complex noises, such as more practical non-i.i.d. distributed noises, are rarely considered; and time-consuming forward PDE solvers are needed to estimate posterior statistical quantities. To address these issues, an infinite-dimensional inference framework has been proposed based on the infinite-dimensional variational inference method and deep generative models. Specifically, by introducing some measure equivalence assumptions, we derive the evidence lower bound in the infinite-dimensional setting and provide possible parametric strategies that yield a general inference framework called the Variational Inverting Network (VINet). This inference framework can encode prior and noise information from learning examples. In addition, relying on the power of deep neural networks, the posterior mean and variance can be efficiently and explicitly generated in the inference stage. In numerical experiments, we design specific network structures that yield a computable VINet from the general inference framework. Numerical examples of linear inverse problems of an elliptic equation and the Helmholtz equation are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed inference framework.

In a decentralized machine learning system, data is typically partitioned among multiple devices or nodes, each of which trains a local model using its own data. These local models are then shared and combined to create a global model that can make accurate predictions on new data. In this paper, we start exploring the role of the network topology connecting nodes on the performance of a Machine Learning model trained through direct collaboration between nodes. We investigate how different types of topologies impact the "spreading of knowledge", i.e., the ability of nodes to incorporate in their local model the knowledge derived by learning patterns in data available in other nodes across the networks. Specifically, we highlight the different roles in this process of more or less connected nodes (hubs and leaves), as well as that of macroscopic network properties (primarily, degree distribution and modularity). Among others, we show that, while it is known that even weak connectivity among network components is sufficient for information spread, it may not be sufficient for knowledge spread. More intuitively, we also find that hubs have a more significant role than leaves in spreading knowledge, although this manifests itself not only for heavy-tailed distributions but also when "hubs" have only moderately more connections than leaves. Finally, we show that tightly knit communities severely hinder knowledge spread.

Cyber-physical systems (CPS) offer immense optimization potential for manufacturing processes through the availability of multivariate time series data of actors and sensors. Based on automated analysis software, the deployment of adaptive and responsive measures is possible for time series data. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of modern manufacturing, analysis and modeling often cannot be entirely automated. Even machine- or deep learning approaches often depend on a priori expert knowledge and labelling. In this paper, an information-based data preprocessing approach is proposed. By applying statistical methods including variance and correlation analysis, an approximation of the sampling rate in event-based systems and the utilization of spectral analysis, knowledge about the underlying manufacturing processes can be gained prior to modeling. The paper presents, how statistical analysis enables the pruning of a dataset's least important features and how the sampling rate approximation approach sets the base for further data analysis and modeling. The data's underlying periodicity, originating from the cyclic nature of an automated manufacturing process, will be detected by utilizing the fast Fourier transform. This information-based preprocessing method will then be validated for process time series data of cyber-physical systems' programmable logic controllers (PLC).

Recently developed reduced-order modeling techniques aim to approximate nonlinear dynamical systems on low-dimensional manifolds learned from data. This is an effective approach for modeling dynamics in a post-transient regime where the effects of initial conditions and other disturbances have decayed. However, modeling transient dynamics near an underlying manifold, as needed for real-time control and forecasting applications, is complicated by the effects of fast dynamics and nonnormal sensitivity mechanisms. To begin to address these issues, we introduce a parametric class of nonlinear projections described by constrained autoencoder neural networks in which both the manifold and the projection fibers are learned from data. Our architecture uses invertible activation functions and biorthogonal weight matrices to ensure that the encoder is a left inverse of the decoder. We also introduce new dynamics-aware cost functions that promote learning of oblique projection fibers that account for fast dynamics and nonnormality. To demonstrate these methods and the specific challenges they address, we provide a detailed case study of a three-state model of vortex shedding in the wake of a bluff body immersed in a fluid, which has a two-dimensional slow manifold that can be computed analytically. In anticipation of future applications to high-dimensional systems, we also propose several techniques for constructing computationally efficient reduced-order models using our proposed nonlinear projection framework. This includes a novel sparsity-promoting penalty for the encoder that avoids detrimental weight matrix shrinkage via computation on the Grassmann manifold.

Vast amount of data generated from networks of sensors, wearables, and the Internet of Things (IoT) devices underscores the need for advanced modeling techniques that leverage the spatio-temporal structure of decentralized data due to the need for edge computation and licensing (data access) issues. While federated learning (FL) has emerged as a framework for model training without requiring direct data sharing and exchange, effectively modeling the complex spatio-temporal dependencies to improve forecasting capabilities still remains an open problem. On the other hand, state-of-the-art spatio-temporal forecasting models assume unfettered access to the data, neglecting constraints on data sharing. To bridge this gap, we propose a federated spatio-temporal model -- Cross-Node Federated Graph Neural Network (CNFGNN) -- which explicitly encodes the underlying graph structure using graph neural network (GNN)-based architecture under the constraint of cross-node federated learning, which requires that data in a network of nodes is generated locally on each node and remains decentralized. CNFGNN operates by disentangling the temporal dynamics modeling on devices and spatial dynamics on the server, utilizing alternating optimization to reduce the communication cost, facilitating computations on the edge devices. Experiments on the traffic flow forecasting task show that CNFGNN achieves the best forecasting performance in both transductive and inductive learning settings with no extra computation cost on edge devices, while incurring modest communication cost.

The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.

This paper focuses on two fundamental tasks of graph analysis: community detection and node representation learning, which capture the global and local structures of graphs, respectively. In the current literature, these two tasks are usually independently studied while they are actually highly correlated. We propose a probabilistic generative model called vGraph to learn community membership and node representation collaboratively. Specifically, we assume that each node can be represented as a mixture of communities, and each community is defined as a multinomial distribution over nodes. Both the mixing coefficients and the community distribution are parameterized by the low-dimensional representations of the nodes and communities. We designed an effective variational inference algorithm which regularizes the community membership of neighboring nodes to be similar in the latent space. Experimental results on multiple real-world graphs show that vGraph is very effective in both community detection and node representation learning, outperforming many competitive baselines in both tasks. We show that the framework of vGraph is quite flexible and can be easily extended to detect hierarchical communities.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) are a popular class of machine learning models whose major advantage is their ability to incorporate a sparse and discrete dependency structure between data points. Unfortunately, GNNs can only be used when such a graph-structure is available. In practice, however, real-world graphs are often noisy and incomplete or might not be available at all. With this work, we propose to jointly learn the graph structure and the parameters of graph convolutional networks (GCNs) by approximately solving a bilevel program that learns a discrete probability distribution on the edges of the graph. This allows one to apply GCNs not only in scenarios where the given graph is incomplete or corrupted but also in those where a graph is not available. We conduct a series of experiments that analyze the behavior of the proposed method and demonstrate that it outperforms related methods by a significant margin.

Aspect based sentiment analysis (ABSA) can provide more detailed information than general sentiment analysis, because it aims to predict the sentiment polarities of the given aspects or entities in text. We summarize previous approaches into two subtasks: aspect-category sentiment analysis (ACSA) and aspect-term sentiment analysis (ATSA). Most previous approaches employ long short-term memory and attention mechanisms to predict the sentiment polarity of the concerned targets, which are often complicated and need more training time. We propose a model based on convolutional neural networks and gating mechanisms, which is more accurate and efficient. First, the novel Gated Tanh-ReLU Units can selectively output the sentiment features according to the given aspect or entity. The architecture is much simpler than attention layer used in the existing models. Second, the computations of our model could be easily parallelized during training, because convolutional layers do not have time dependency as in LSTM layers, and gating units also work independently. The experiments on SemEval datasets demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of our models.