This paper proposes empirical Bayes shrinkage methods. Compared to common shrinkage methods, we do not assume that the unknown parameters are independent from the known standard errors. This prior independence assumption is both theoretically tenuous and often empirically rejected. We instead model the conditional distribution of the parameter given the standard errors as a location-scale family. This assumption leads to a family of methods that we call CLOSE. We establish that (i) CLOSE is rate-optimal for squared error Bayes regret up to logarithmic factors, (ii) squared error regret control is sufficient for a class of economic decision problems, and (iii) CLOSE is worst-case robust. We illustrate our method with an empirical application to the Opportunity Atlas and Creating Moves to Opportunity (Chetty et al., 2018; Bergman et al., 2019). For the decision problem of selecting high mobility Census tracts in Bergman et al. (2019), CLOSE selects Census tracts that are more economically mobile than the standard shrinkage method. This estimated gain is larger than the gain of using the standard method relative to selecting tracts uniformly at random.
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Bayesian variable selection methods are powerful techniques for fitting and inferring on sparse high-dimensional linear regression models. However, many are computationally intensive or require restrictive prior distributions on model parameters. In this paper, we proposed a computationally efficient and powerful Bayesian approach for sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Minimal prior assumptions on the parameters are used through the use of plug-in empirical Bayes estimates of hyperparameters. Efficient maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation is completed through a Parameter-Expanded Expectation-Conditional-Maximization (PX-ECM) algorithm. The PX-ECM results in a robust computationally efficient coordinate-wise optimization, which adjusts for the impact of other predictor variables. The completion of the E-step uses an approach motivated by the popular two-groups approach to multiple testing. The result is a PaRtitiOned empirical Bayes Ecm (PROBE) algorithm applied to sparse high-dimensional linear regression, which can be completed using one-at-a-time or all-at-once type optimization. We compare the empirical properties of PROBE to comparable approaches with numerous simulation studies and an analysis of cancer cell lines drug response study. The proposed approach is implemented in the R package probe.
Agile autonomous drones are becoming increasingly popular in research due to the challenges they represent in fields like control, state estimation, or perception at high speeds. When all algorithms are computed onboard the uav, the computational limitations make the task of agile and robust flight even more difficult. One of the most computationally expensive tasks in agile flight is the generation of optimal trajectories that tackles the problem of planning a minimum time trajectory for a quadrotor over a sequence of specified waypoints. When these trajectories must be updated online due to changes in the environment or uncertainties, this high computational cost can leverage to not reach the desired waypoints or even crash in cluttered environments. In this paper, a fast lightweight dynamic trajectory modification approach is presented to allow modifying computational heavy trajectories using Local Gaussian Modifiers (LGMs), when recalculating a trajectory is not possible due to the time of computation. Our approach was validated in simulation, being able to pass through a race circuit with dynamic gates with top speeds up to 16.0 m/s, and was also validated in real flight reaching speeds up to 4.0 m/s in a fully autonomous onboard computing condition.
CaloFlow II: Even Faster and Still Accurate Generation of Calorimeter Showers with Normalizing Flows
Recently, we introduced CaloFlow, a high-fidelity generative model for GEANT4 calorimeter shower emulation based on normalizing flows. Here, we present CaloFlow v2, an improvement on our original framework that speeds up shower generation by a further factor of 500 relative to the original. The improvement is based on a technique called Probability Density Distillation, originally developed for speech synthesis in the ML literature, and which we develop further by introducing a set of powerful new loss terms. We demonstrate that CaloFlow v2 preserves the same high fidelity of the original using qualitative (average images, histograms of high level features) and quantitative (classifier metric between GEANT4 and generated samples) measures. The result is a generative model for calorimeter showers that matches the state-of-the-art in speed (a factor of $10^4$ faster than GEANT4) and greatly surpasses the previous state-of-the-art in fidelity.
External validation is often recommended to ensure the generalizability of ML models. However, it neither guarantees generalizability nor equates to a model's clinical usefulness (the ultimate goal of any clinical decision-support tool). External validation is misaligned with current healthcare ML needs. First, patient data changes across time, geography, and facilities. These changes create significant volatility in the performance of a single fixed model (especially for deep learning models, which dominate clinical ML). Second, newer ML techniques, current market forces, and updated regulatory frameworks are enabling frequent updating and monitoring of individual deployed model instances. We submit that external validation is insufficient to establish ML models' safety or utility. Proposals to fix the external validation paradigm do not go far enough. Continued reliance on it as the ultimate test is likely to lead us astray. We propose the MLOps-inspired paradigm of recurring local validation as an alternative that ensures the validity of models while protecting against performance-disruptive data variability. This paradigm relies on site-specific reliability tests before every deployment, followed by regular and recurrent checks throughout the life cycle of the deployed algorithm. Initial and recurrent reliability tests protect against performance-disruptive distribution shifts, and concept drifts that jeopardize patient safety.
We explore the features of two methods of stabilization, aggregation and supremizer methods, for reduced-order modeling of parametrized optimal control problems. In both methods, the reduced basis spaces are augmented to guarantee stability. For the aggregation method, the reduced basis approximation spaces for the state and adjoint variables are augmented in such a way that the spaces are identical. For the supremizer method, the reduced basis approximation space for the state-control product space is augmented with the solutions of a supremizer equation. We implement both of these methods for solving several parametrized control problems and assess their performance. Results indicate that the number of reduced basis vectors needed to approximate the solution space to some tolerance with the supremizer method is much larger, possibly double, that for aggregation. There are also some cases where the supremizer method fails to produce a converged solution. We present results to compare the accuracy, efficiency, and computational costs associated with both methods of stabilization which suggest that stabilization by aggregation is a superior stabilization method for control problems.
Optimization is a key tool for scientific and engineering applications, however, in the presence of models affected by uncertainty, the optimization formulation needs to be extended to consider statistics of the quantity of interest. Optimization under uncertainty (OUU) deals with this endeavor and requires uncertainty quantification analyses at several design locations. The cost of OUU is proportional to the cost of performing a forward uncertainty analysis at each design location visited, which makes the computational burden too high for high-fidelity simulations with significant computational cost. From a high-level standpoint, an OUU workflow typically has two main components: an inner loop strategy for the computation of statistics of the quantity of interest, and an outer loop optimization strategy tasked with finding the optimal design, given a merit function based on the inner loop statistics. In this work, we propose to alleviate the cost of the inner loop uncertainty analysis by leveraging the so-called Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method. MLMC has the potential of drastically reducing the computational cost by allocating resources over multiple models with varying accuracy and cost. The resource allocation problem in MLMC is formulated by minimizing the computational cost given a target variance for the estimator. We consider MLMC estimators for statistics usually employed in OUU workflows and solve the corresponding allocation problem. For the outer loop, we consider a derivative-free optimization strategy implemented in the SNOWPAC library; our novel strategy is implemented and released in the Dakota software toolkit. We discuss several numerical test cases to showcase the features and performance of our novel approach with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, based on standard Monte Carlo evaluation of statistics.
Typical deep visual recognition models are capable of performing the one task they were trained on. In this paper, we tackle the extremely difficult problem of combining completely distinct models with different initializations, each solving a separate task, into one multi-task model without any additional training. Prior work in model merging permutes one model to the space of the other then adds them together. While this works for models trained on the same task, we find that this fails to account for the differences in models trained on disjoint tasks. Thus, we introduce "ZipIt!", a general method for merging two arbitrary models of the same architecture that incorporates two simple strategies. First, in order to account for features that aren't shared between models, we expand the model merging problem to additionally allow for merging features within each model by defining a general "zip" operation. Second, we add support for partially zipping the models up until a specified layer, naturally creating a multi-head model. We find that these two changes combined account for a staggering 20-60% improvement over prior work, making the merging of models trained on disjoint tasks feasible.
Score-based generative modeling (SGM) is a highly successful approach for learning a probability distribution from data and generating further samples. We prove the first polynomial convergence guarantees for the core mechanic behind SGM: drawing samples from a probability density $p$ given a score estimate (an estimate of $\nabla \ln p$) that is accurate in $L^2(p)$. Compared to previous works, we do not incur error that grows exponentially in time or that suffers from a curse of dimensionality. Our guarantee works for any smooth distribution and depends polynomially on its log-Sobolev constant. Using our guarantee, we give a theoretical analysis of score-based generative modeling, which transforms white-noise input into samples from a learned data distribution given score estimates at different noise scales. Our analysis gives theoretical grounding to the observation that an annealed procedure is required in practice to generate good samples, as our proof depends essentially on using annealing to obtain a warm start at each step. Moreover, we show that a predictor-corrector algorithm gives better convergence than using either portion alone.
An old problem in multivariate statistics is that linear Gaussian models are often unidentifiable, i.e. some parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In factor (component) analysis, an orthogonal rotation of the factors is unidentifiable, while in linear regression, the direction of effect cannot be identified. For such linear models, non-Gaussianity of the (latent) variables has been shown to provide identifiability. In the case of factor analysis, this leads to independent component analysis, while in the case of the direction of effect, non-Gaussian versions of structural equation modelling solve the problem. More recently, we have shown how even general nonparametric nonlinear versions of such models can be estimated. Non-Gaussianity is not enough in this case, but assuming we have time series, or that the distributions are suitably modulated by some observed auxiliary variables, the models are identifiable. This paper reviews the identifiability theory for the linear and nonlinear cases, considering both factor analytic models and structural equation models.
Empirical likelihood enables a nonparametric, likelihood-driven style of inference without restrictive assumptions routinely made in parametric models. We develop a framework for applying empirical likelihood to the analysis of experimental designs, addressing issues that arise from blocking and multiple hypothesis testing. In addition to popular designs such as balanced incomplete block designs, our approach allows for highly unbalanced, incomplete block designs. We derive an asymptotic multivariate chi-square distribution for a set of empirical likelihood test statistics and propose two single-step multiple testing procedures: asymptotic Monte Carlo and nonparametric bootstrap. Both procedures asymptotically control the generalised family-wise error rate and efficiently construct simultaneous confidence intervals for comparisons of interest without explicitly considering the underlying covariance structure. A simulation study demonstrates that the performance of the procedures is robust to violations of standard assumptions of linear mixed models. We also present an application to experiments on a pesticide.
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