An old problem in multivariate statistics is that linear Gaussian models are often unidentifiable, i.e. some parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In factor (component) analysis, an orthogonal rotation of the factors is unidentifiable, while in linear regression, the direction of effect cannot be identified. For such linear models, non-Gaussianity of the (latent) variables has been shown to provide identifiability. In the case of factor analysis, this leads to independent component analysis, while in the case of the direction of effect, non-Gaussian versions of structural equation modelling solve the problem. More recently, we have shown how even general nonparametric nonlinear versions of such models can be estimated. Non-Gaussianity is not enough in this case, but assuming we have time series, or that the distributions are suitably modulated by some observed auxiliary variables, the models are identifiable. This paper reviews the identifiability theory for the linear and nonlinear cases, considering both factor analytic models and structural equation models.
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Empirical evidence demonstrates that citations received by scholarly publications follow a pattern of preferential attachment, resulting in a power-law distribution. Such asymmetry has sparked significant debate regarding the use of citations for research evaluation. However, a consensus has yet to be established concerning the historical trends in citation concentration. Are citations becoming more concentrated in a small number of articles? Or have recent geopolitical and technical changes in science led to more decentralized distributions? This ongoing debate stems from a lack of technical clarity in measuring inequality. Given the variations in citation practices across disciplines and over time, it is crucial to account for multiple factors that can influence the findings. This article explores how reference-based and citation-based approaches, uncited articles, citation inflation, the expansion of bibliometric databases, disciplinary differences, and self-citations affect the evolution of citation concentration. Our results indicate a decreasing trend in citation concentration, primarily driven by a decline in uncited articles, which, in turn, can be attributed to the growing significance of Asia and Europe. On the whole, our findings clarify current debates on citation concentration and show that, contrary to a widely-held belief, citations are increasingly scattered.
Learning to control unknown nonlinear dynamical systems is a fundamental problem in reinforcement learning and control theory. A commonly applied approach is to first explore the environment (exploration), learn an accurate model of it (system identification), and then compute an optimal controller with the minimum cost on this estimated system (policy optimization). While existing work has shown that it is possible to learn a uniformly good model of the system~\citep{mania2020active}, in practice, if we aim to learn a good controller with a low cost on the actual system, certain system parameters may be significantly more critical than others, and we therefore ought to focus our exploration on learning such parameters. In this work, we consider the setting of nonlinear dynamical systems and seek to formally quantify, in such settings, (a) which parameters are most relevant to learning a good controller, and (b) how we can best explore so as to minimize uncertainty in such parameters. Inspired by recent work in linear systems~\citep{wagenmaker2021task}, we show that minimizing the controller loss in nonlinear systems translates to estimating the system parameters in a particular, task-dependent metric. Motivated by this, we develop an algorithm able to efficiently explore the system to reduce uncertainty in this metric, and prove a lower bound showing that our approach learns a controller at a near-instance-optimal rate. Our algorithm relies on a general reduction from policy optimization to optimal experiment design in arbitrary systems, and may be of independent interest. We conclude with experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of our method in realistic nonlinear robotic systems.
Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. To address this problem, we proposed the MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation (MRBEE) that can infer unbiased causal relationships with many weak IVs and account for horizontal pleiotropy simultaneously. While the practical significance of MRBEE was demonstrated in our parallel work (Lorincz-Comi (2023)), this paper established the statistical theories of multivariable IVW and MRBEE with many weak IVs. First, we showed that the bias of the multivariable IVW estimate is caused by the error-in-variable bias, whose scale and direction are inflated and influenced by weak instrument bias and sample overlaps of exposures and outcome GWAS cohorts, respectively. Second, we investigated the asymptotic properties of multivariable IVW and MRBEE, showing that MRBEE outperforms multivariable IVW regarding unbiasedness of causal effect estimation and asymptotic validity of causal inference. Finally, we applied MRBEE to examine myopia and revealed that education and outdoor activity are causal to myopia whereas indoor activity is not.
A treatment policy defines when and what treatments are applied to affect some outcome of interest. Data-driven decision-making requires the ability to predict what happens if a policy is changed. Existing methods that predict how the outcome evolves under different scenarios assume that the tentative sequences of future treatments are fixed in advance, while in practice the treatments are determined stochastically by a policy and may depend, for example, on the efficiency of previous treatments. Therefore, the current methods are not applicable if the treatment policy is unknown or a counterfactual analysis is needed. To handle these limitations, we model the treatments and outcomes jointly in continuous time, by combining Gaussian processes and point processes. Our model enables the estimation of a treatment policy from observational sequences of treatments and outcomes, and it can predict the interventional and counterfactual progression of the outcome after an intervention on the treatment policy (in contrast with the causal effect of a single treatment). We show with real-world and semi-synthetic data on blood glucose progression that our method can answer causal queries more accurately than existing alternatives.
This paper presents a novel approach to Bayesian nonparametric spectral analysis of stationary multivariate time series. Starting with a parametric vector-autoregressive model, the parametric likelihood is nonparametrically adjusted in the frequency domain to account for potential deviations from parametric assumptions. We show mutual contiguity of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood, the multivariate Whittle likelihood approximation and the exact likelihood for Gaussian time series. A multivariate extension of the nonparametric Bernstein-Dirichlet process prior for univariate spectral densities to the space of Hermitian positive definite spectral density matrices is specified directly on the correction matrices. An infinite series representation of this prior is then used to develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the posterior distribution. The code is made publicly available for ease of use and reproducibility. With this novel approach we provide a generalization of the multivariate Whittle-likelihood-based method of Meier et al. (2020) as well as an extension of the nonparametrically corrected likelihood for univariate stationary time series of Kirch et al. (2019) to the multivariate case. We demonstrate that the nonparametrically corrected likelihood combines the efficiencies of a parametric with the robustness of a nonparametric model. Its numerical accuracy is illustrated in a comprehensive simulation study. We illustrate its practical advantages by a spectral analysis of two environmental time series data sets: a bivariate time series of the Southern Oscillation Index and fish recruitment and time series of windspeed data at six locations in California.
In this paper, we use the optimization formulation of nonlinear Kalman filtering and smoothing problems to develop second-order variants of iterated Kalman smoother (IKS) methods. We show that Newton's method corresponds to a recursion over affine smoothing problems on a modified state-space model augmented by a pseudo measurement. The first and second derivatives required in this approach can be efficiently computed with widely available automatic differentiation tools. Furthermore, we show how to incorporate line-search and trust-region strategies into the proposed second-order IKS algorithm in order to regularize updates between iterations. Finally, we provide numerical examples to demonstrate the method's efficiency in terms of runtime compared to its batch counterpart.
We consider linear random coefficient regression models, where the regressors are allowed to have a finite support. First, we investigate identifiability, and show that the means and the variances and covariances of the random coefficients are identified from the first two conditional moments of the response given the covariates if the support of the covariates, excluding the intercept, contains a Cartesian product with at least three points in each coordinate. We also discuss ientification of higher-order mixed moments, as well as partial identification in the presence of a binary regressor. Next we show the variable selection consistency of the adaptive LASSO for the variances and covariances of the random coefficients in finite and moderately high dimensions. This implies that the estimated covariance matrix will actually be positive semidefinite and hence a valid covariance matrix, in contrast to the estimate arising from a simple least squares fit. We illustrate the proposed method in a simulation study.
The Gaussian process latent variable model (GPLVM) is a popular probabilistic method used for nonlinear dimension reduction, matrix factorization, and state-space modeling. Inference for GPLVMs is computationally tractable only when the data likelihood is Gaussian. Moreover, inference for GPLVMs has typically been restricted to obtaining maximum a posteriori point estimates, which can lead to overfitting, or variational approximations, which mischaracterize the posterior uncertainty. Here, we present a method to perform Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference for generalized Bayesian nonlinear latent variable modeling. The crucial insight necessary to generalize GPLVMs to arbitrary observation models is that we approximate the kernel function in the Gaussian process mappings with random Fourier features; this allows us to compute the gradient of the posterior in closed form with respect to the latent variables. We show that we can generalize GPLVMs to non-Gaussian observations, such as Poisson, negative binomial, and multinomial distributions, using our random feature latent variable model (RFLVM). Our generalized RFLVMs perform on par with state-of-the-art latent variable models on a wide range of applications, including motion capture, images, and text data for the purpose of estimating the latent structure and imputing the missing data of these complex data sets.
By composing graphical models with deep learning architectures, we learn generative models with the strengths of both frameworks. The structured variational autoencoder (SVAE) inherits structure and interpretability from graphical models, and flexible likelihoods for high-dimensional data from deep learning, but poses substantial optimization challenges. We propose novel algorithms for learning SVAEs, and are the first to demonstrate the SVAE's ability to handle multimodal uncertainty when data is missing by incorporating discrete latent variables. Our memory-efficient implicit differentiation scheme makes the SVAE tractable to learn via gradient descent, while demonstrating robustness to incomplete optimization. To more rapidly learn accurate graphical model parameters, we derive a method for computing natural gradients without manual derivations, which avoids biases found in prior work. These optimization innovations enable the first comparisons of the SVAE to state-of-the-art time series models, where the SVAE performs competitively while learning interpretable and structured discrete data representations.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
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