Mendelian randomization (MR) is an instrumental variable (IV) approach to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) summary data. However, the multivariable inverse-variance weighting (IVW) approach, which serves as the foundation for most MR approaches, cannot yield unbiased causal effect estimates in the presence of many weak IVs. To address this problem, we proposed the MR using Bias-corrected Estimating Equation (MRBEE) that can infer unbiased causal relationships with many weak IVs and account for horizontal pleiotropy simultaneously. While the practical significance of MRBEE was demonstrated in our parallel work (Lorincz-Comi (2023)), this paper established the statistical theories of multivariable IVW and MRBEE with many weak IVs. First, we showed that the bias of the multivariable IVW estimate is caused by the error-in-variable bias, whose scale and direction are inflated and influenced by weak instrument bias and sample overlaps of exposures and outcome GWAS cohorts, respectively. Second, we investigated the asymptotic properties of multivariable IVW and MRBEE, showing that MRBEE outperforms multivariable IVW regarding unbiasedness of causal effect estimation and asymptotic validity of causal inference. Finally, we applied MRBEE to examine myopia and revealed that education and outdoor activity are causal to myopia whereas indoor activity is not.
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We present a rigorous and precise analysis of the maximum degree and the average degree in a dynamic duplication-divergence graph model introduced by Sol\'e, Pastor-Satorras et al. in which the graph grows according to a duplication-divergence mechanism, i.e. by iteratively creating a copy of some node and then randomly alternating the neighborhood of a new node with probability $p$. This model captures the growth of some real-world processes e.g. biological or social networks. In this paper, we prove that for some $0 < p < 1$ the maximum degree and the average degree of a duplication-divergence graph on $t$ vertices are asymptotically concentrated with high probability around $t^p$ and $\max\{t^{2 p - 1}, 1\}$, respectively, i.e. they are within at most a polylogarithmic factor from these values with probability at least $1 - t^{-A}$ for any constant $A > 0$.
We propose and analyse an explicit boundary-preserving scheme for the strong approximations of some SDEs with non-globally Lipschitz drift and diffusion coefficients whose state-space is bounded. The scheme consists of a Lamperti transform followed by a Lie--Trotter splitting. We prove $L^{p}(\Omega)$-convergence of order $1$, for every $p \in \mathbb{N}$, of the scheme and exploit the Lamperti transform to confine the numerical approximations to the state-space of the considered SDE. We provide numerical experiments that confirm the theoretical results and compare the proposed Lamperti-splitting scheme to other numerical schemes for SDEs.
Aiming for a mixbiotic society that combines freedom and solidarity among people with diverse values, I focused on nonviolent communication (NVC) that enables compassionate giving in various situations of social division and conflict, and tried a generative AI for it. Specifically, ChatGPT was used in place of the traditional certified trainer to test the possibility of mediating (modifying) input sentences in four processes: observation, feelings, needs, and requests. The results indicate that there is potential for the application of generative AI, although not yet at a practical level. Suggested improvement guidelines included adding model responses, relearning revised responses, specifying appropriate terminology for each process, and re-asking for required information. The use of generative AI will be useful initially to assist certified trainers, to prepare for and review events and workshops, and in the future to support consensus building and cooperative behavior in digital democracy, platform cooperatives, and cyber-human social co-operating systems. It is hoped that the widespread use of NVC mediation using generative AI will lead to the early realization of a mixbiotic society.
Sparse principal component analysis (SPCA) is a popular tool for dimensionality reduction in high-dimensional data. However, there is still a lack of theoretically justified Bayesian SPCA methods that can scale well computationally. One of the major challenges in Bayesian SPCA is selecting an appropriate prior for the loadings matrix, considering that principal components are mutually orthogonal. We propose a novel parameter-expanded coordinate ascent variational inference (PX-CAVI) algorithm. This algorithm utilizes a spike and slab prior, which incorporates parameter expansion to cope with the orthogonality constraint. Besides comparing to two popular SPCA approaches, we introduce the PX-EM algorithm as an EM analogue to the PX-CAVI algorithm for comparison. Through extensive numerical simulations, we demonstrate that the PX-CAVI algorithm outperforms these SPCA approaches, showcasing its superiority in terms of performance. We study the posterior contraction rate of the variational posterior, providing a novel contribution to the existing literature. The PX-CAVI algorithm is then applied to study a lung cancer gene expression dataset. The R package VBsparsePCA with an implementation of the algorithm is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network (CRAN).
This note presents a refined local approximation for the logarithm of the ratio between the negative multinomial probability mass function and a multivariate normal density, both having the same mean-covariance structure. This approximation, which is derived using Stirling's formula and a meticulous treatment of Taylor expansions, yields an upper bound on the Hellinger distance between the jittered negative multinomial distribution and the corresponding multivariate normal distribution. Upper bounds on the Le Cam distance between negative multinomial and multivariate normal experiments ensue.
Many mechanisms behind the evolution of cooperation, such as reciprocity, indirect reciprocity, and altruistic punishment, require group knowledge of individual actions. But what keeps people cooperating when no one is looking? Conformist norm internalization, the tendency to abide by the behavior of the majority of the group, even when it is individually harmful, could be the answer. In this paper, we analyze a world where (1) there is group selection and punishment by indirect reciprocity but (2) many actions (half) go unobserved, and therefore unpunished. Can norm internalization fill this `observation gap' and lead to high levels of cooperation, even when agents may in principle cooperate only when likely to be caught and punished? Specifically, we seek to understand whether adding norm internalization to the strategy space in a public goods game can lead to higher levels of cooperation when both norm internalization and cooperation start out rare. We found the answer to be positive, but, interestingly, not because norm internalizers end up making up a substantial fraction of the population, nor because they cooperate much more than other agent types. Instead, norm internalizers, by polarizing, catalyzing, and stabilizing cooperation, can increase levels of cooperation of other agent types, while only making up a minority of the population themselves.
Trust-region subproblem (TRS) is an important problem arising in many applications such as numerical optimization, Tikhonov regularization of ill-posed problems, and constrained eigenvalue problems. In recent decades, extensive works focus on how to solve the trust-region subproblem efficiently. To the best of our knowledge, there are few results on perturbation analysis of the trust-region subproblem. In order to fill in this gap, we focus on first-order perturbation theory of the trust-region subproblem. The main contributions of this paper are three-fold. First, suppose that the TRS is in \emph{easy case}, we give a sufficient condition under which the perturbed TRS is still in easy case. Second, with the help of the structure of the TRS and the classical eigenproblem perturbation theory, we perform first-order perturbation analysis on the Lagrange multiplier and the solution of the TRS, and define their condition numbers. Third, we point out that the solution and the Lagrange multiplier could be well-conditioned even if TRS is in {\it nearly hard case}. The established results are computable, and are helpful to evaluate ill-conditioning of the TRS problem beforehand. Numerical experiments show the sharpness of the established bounds and the effectiveness of the proposed strategies.
Partially linear additive models generalize linear ones since they model the relation between a response variable and covariates by assuming that some covariates have a linear relation with the response but each of the others enter through unknown univariate smooth functions. The harmful effect of outliers either in the residuals or in the covariates involved in the linear component has been described in the situation of partially linear models, that is, when only one nonparametric component is involved in the model. When dealing with additive components, the problem of providing reliable estimators when atypical data arise, is of practical importance motivating the need of robust procedures. Hence, we propose a family of robust estimators for partially linear additive models by combining $B-$splines with robust linear regression estimators. We obtain consistency results, rates of convergence and asymptotic normality for the linear components, under mild assumptions. A Monte Carlo study is carried out to compare the performance of the robust proposal with its classical counterpart under different models and contamination schemes. The numerical experiments show the advantage of the proposed methodology for finite samples. We also illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approach on a real data set.
A population-averaged additive subdistribution hazards model is proposed to assess the marginal effects of covariates on the cumulative incidence function and to analyze correlated failure time data subject to competing risks. This approach extends the population-averaged additive hazards model by accommodating potentially dependent censoring due to competing events other than the event of interest. Assuming an independent working correlation structure, an estimating equations approach is outlined to estimate the regression coefficients and a new sandwich variance estimator is proposed. The proposed sandwich variance estimator accounts for both the correlations between failure times and between the censoring times, and is robust to misspecification of the unknown dependency structure within each cluster. We further develop goodness-of-fit tests to assess the adequacy of the additive structure of the subdistribution hazards for the overall model and each covariate. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in finite samples. We illustrate our methods using data from the STrategies to Reduce Injuries and Develop confidence in Elders (STRIDE) trial.
Richardson extrapolation is applied to a simple first-order upwind difference scheme for the approximation of solutions of singularly perturbed convection-diffusion problems in one dimension. Robust a posteriori error bounds are derived for the proposed method on arbitrary meshes. It is shown that the resulting error estimator can be used to stear an adaptive mesh algorithm that generates meshes resolving layers and singularities. Numerical results are presented that illustrate the theoretical findings.
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