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Causal regularization was introduced as a stable causal inference strategy in a two-environment setting in \cite{kania2022causal}. We start with observing that causal regularizer can be extended to several shifted environments. We derive the multi-environment casual regularizer in the population setting. We propose its plug-in estimator, and study its concentration in measure behavior. Although the variance of the plug-in estimator is not well-defined in general, we instead study its conditional variance both with respect to a natural filtration of the empirical as well as conditioning with respect to certain events. We also study generalizations where we consider conditional expectations of higher central absolute moments of the estimator. The results presented here are also new in the prior setting of \cite{kania2022causal} as well as in \cite{Rot}.

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Complex DeFi services are usually constructed by composing a variety of simpler smart contracts. The permissionless nature of the blockchains where these smart contracts are executed makes DeFi services exposed to security risks, since adversaries can target any of the underlying contracts to economically damage the compound service. We introduce a new notion of secure composability of smart contracts, which ensures that adversaries cannot economically harm the compound contract by interfering with its dependencies.

In this paper, the joint distribution of the sum and maximum of independent, not necessarily identically distributed, nonnegative random variables is studied for two cases: i) continuous and ii) discrete random variables. First, a recursive formula of the joint cumulative distribution function (CDF) is derived in both cases. Then, recurrence relations of the joint probability density function (PDF) and the joint probability mass function (PMF) are given in the former and the latter case, respectively. Interestingly, there is a fundamental difference between the joint PDF and PMF. The proofs are simple and mainly based on the following tools from calculus and discrete mathematics: differentiation under the integral sign (also known as Leibniz's integral rule), the law of total probability, and mathematical induction. Finally, this work generalizes previous results in the literature.

A nonlinear regression framework is proposed for time series and panel data for the situation where certain explanatory variables are available at a higher temporal resolution than the dependent variable. The main idea is to use the moments of the empirical distribution of these variables to construct regressors with the correct resolution. As the moments are likely to display nonlinear marginal and interaction effects, an artificial neural network regression function is proposed. The corresponding model operates within the traditional stochastic nonlinear least squares framework. In particular, a numerical Hessian is employed to calculate confidence intervals. The practical usefulness is demonstrated by analyzing the influence of daily temperatures in 260 European NUTS2 regions on the yearly growth of gross value added in these regions in the time period 2000 to 2021. In the particular example, the model allows for an appropriate assessment of regional economic impacts resulting from (future) changes in the regional temperature distribution (mean AND variance).

Although industrial anomaly detection (AD) technology has made significant progress in recent years, generating realistic anomalies and learning priors of normal remain challenging tasks. In this study, we propose an end-to-end industrial anomaly detection method called FractalAD. Training samples are obtained by synthesizing fractal images and patches from normal samples. This fractal anomaly generation method is designed to sample the full morphology of anomalies. Moreover, we designed a backbone knowledge distillation structure to extract prior knowledge contained in normal samples. The differences between a teacher and a student model are converted into anomaly attention using a cosine similarity attention module. The proposed method enables an end-to-end semantic segmentation network to be used for anomaly detection without adding any trainable parameters to the backbone and segmentation head, and has obvious advantages over other methods in training and inference speed.. The results of ablation studies confirmed the effectiveness of fractal anomaly generation and backbone knowledge distillation. The results of performance experiments showed that FractalAD achieved competitive results on the MVTec AD dataset and MVTec 3D-AD dataset compared with other state-of-the-art anomaly detection methods.

We propose, analyze and realize a variational multiclass segmentation scheme that partitions a given image into multiple regions exhibiting specific properties. Our method determines multiple functions that encode the segmentation regions by minimizing an energy functional combining information from different channels. Multichannel image data can be obtained by lifting the image into a higher dimensional feature space using specific multichannel filtering or may already be provided by the imaging modality under consideration, such as an RGB image or multimodal medical data. Experimental results show that the proposed method performs well in various scenarios. In particular, promising results are presented for two medical applications involving classification of brain abscess and tumor growth, respectively. As main theoretical contributions, we prove the existence of global minimizers of the proposed energy functional and show its stability and convergence with respect to noisy inputs. In particular, these results also apply to the special case of binary segmentation, and these results are also novel in this particular situation.

We consider the problem of sequential change detection, where the goal is to design a scheme for detecting any changes in a parameter or functional $\theta$ of the data stream distribution that has small detection delay, but guarantees control on the frequency of false alarms in the absence of changes. In this paper, we describe a simple reduction from sequential change detection to sequential estimation using confidence sequences: we begin a new $(1-\alpha)$-confidence sequence at each time step, and proclaim a change when the intersection of all active confidence sequences becomes empty. We prove that the average run length is at least $1/\alpha$, resulting in a change detection scheme with minimal structural assumptions~(thus allowing for possibly dependent observations, and nonparametric distribution classes), but strong guarantees. Our approach bears an interesting parallel with the reduction from change detection to sequential testing of Lorden (1971) and the e-detector of Shin et al. (2022).

The accurate representation of precipitation in Earth system models (ESMs) is crucial for reliable projections of the ecological and socioeconomic impacts in response to anthropogenic global warming. The complex cross-scale interactions of processes that produce precipitation are challenging to model, however, inducing potentially strong biases in ESM fields, especially regarding extremes. State-of-the-art bias correction methods only address errors in the simulated frequency distributions locally at every individual grid cell. Improving unrealistic spatial patterns of the ESM output, which would require spatial context, has not been possible so far. Here, we show that a post-processing method based on physically constrained generative adversarial networks (cGANs) can correct biases of a state-of-the-art, CMIP6-class ESM both in local frequency distributions and in the spatial patterns at once. While our method improves local frequency distributions equally well as gold-standard bias-adjustment frameworks, it strongly outperforms any existing methods in the correction of spatial patterns, especially in terms of the characteristic spatial intermittency of precipitation extremes.

Grid maps, especially occupancy grid maps, are ubiquitous in many mobile robot applications. To simplify the process of learning the map, grid maps subdivide the world into a grid of cells, whose occupancies are independently estimated using only measurements in the perceptual field of the particular cell. However, the world consists of objects that span multiple cells, which means that measurements falling onto a cell provide evidence on the occupancy of other cells belonging to the same object. This correlation is not captured by current models. In this work, we present a way to generalize the update of grid maps relaxing the assumption of independence by modeling the relationship between the measurements and the occupancy of each cell as a set of latent variables, and jointly estimating those variables and the posterior of the map. Additionally, we propose a method to estimate the latent variables by clustering based on semantic labels and an extension to the Normal Distributions Transfer Occupancy Map (NDT-OM) to facilitate the proposed map update method. We perform comprehensive experiments of map creation and localization with real world data sets, and show that the proposed method creates better maps in highly dynamic environments compared to state-of-the-art methods. Finally, we demonstrate the ability of the proposed method to remove occluded objects from the map in a lifelong map update scenario.

The notion that algorithmic systems should be "transparent" and "explainable" is common in the many statements of consensus principles developed by governments, companies, and advocacy organizations. But what exactly do policy and legal actors want from these technical concepts, and how do their desiderata compare with the explainability techniques developed in the machine learning literature? In hopes of better connecting the policy and technical communities, we provide case studies illustrating five ways in which algorithmic transparency and explainability have been used in policy settings: specific requirements for explanations; in nonbinding guidelines for internal governance of algorithms; in regulations applicable to highly regulated settings; in guidelines meant to increase the utility of legal liability for algorithms; and broad requirements for model and data transparency. The case studies span a spectrum from precise requirements for specific types of explanations to nonspecific requirements focused on broader notions of transparency, illustrating the diverse needs, constraints, and capacities of various policy actors and contexts. Drawing on these case studies, we discuss promising ways in which transparency and explanation could be used in policy, as well as common factors limiting policymakers' use of algorithmic explainability. We conclude with recommendations for researchers and policymakers.

The family of multivariate skew-normal distributions has many interesting properties. It is shown here that these hold for a general class of skew-elliptical distributions. For this class, several stochastic representations are established and then their probabilistic properties, such as characteristic function, moments, quadratic forms as well as transformation properties, are investigated.

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