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Verification of probabilistic forecasts for extreme events has been a very active field of research, stirred by media and public opinions who naturally focus their attention on extreme events, and easily draw biased onclusions. In this context, classical verification methodologies tailored for extreme events, such as thresholded and weighted scoring rules, have undesirable properties that cannot be mitigated; the well-known Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) makes no exception. In this paper, we define a formal framework to assess the behavior of forecast evaluation procedures with respect to extreme events, that we use to point out that assessment based on the expectation of a proper score is not suitable for extremes. As an alternative, we propose to study the properties of the CRPS as a random variable using extreme value theory to address extreme events verification. To compare calibrated forecasts, an index is introduced that summarizes the ability of probabilistic forecasts to predict extremes. Its strengths and limitations are discussed using both theoretical arguments and simulations.

Pauli spin blockade (PSB) can be employed as a great resource for spin qubit initialisation and readout even at elevated temperatures but it can be difficult to identify. We present a machine learning algorithm capable of automatically identifying PSB using charge transport measurements. The scarcity of PSB data is circumvented by training the algorithm with simulated data and by using cross-device validation. We demonstrate our approach on a silicon field-effect transistor device and report an accuracy of 96% on different test devices, giving evidence that the approach is robust to device variability. The approach is expected to be employable across all types of quantum dot devices.

Despite our best efforts, deep learning models remain highly vulnerable to even tiny adversarial perturbations applied to the inputs. The ability to extract information from solely the output of a machine learning model to craft adversarial perturbations to black-box models is a practical threat against real-world systems, such as autonomous cars or machine learning models exposed as a service (MLaaS). Of particular interest are sparse attacks. The realization of sparse attacks in black-box models demonstrates that machine learning models are more vulnerable than we believe. Because these attacks aim to minimize the number of perturbed pixels measured by l_0 norm-required to mislead a model by solely observing the decision (the predicted label) returned to a model query; the so-called decision-based attack setting. But, such an attack leads to an NP-hard optimization problem. We develop an evolution-based algorithm-SparseEvo-for the problem and evaluate against both convolutional deep neural networks and vision transformers. Notably, vision transformers are yet to be investigated under a decision-based attack setting. SparseEvo requires significantly fewer model queries than the state-of-the-art sparse attack Pointwise for both untargeted and targeted attacks. The attack algorithm, although conceptually simple, is also competitive with only a limited query budget against the state-of-the-art gradient-based whitebox attacks in standard computer vision tasks such as ImageNet. Importantly, the query efficient SparseEvo, along with decision-based attacks, in general, raise new questions regarding the safety of deployed systems and poses new directions to study and understand the robustness of machine learning models.

For many reinforcement learning (RL) applications, specifying a reward is difficult. This paper considers an RL setting where the agent obtains information about the reward only by querying an expert that can, for example, evaluate individual states or provide binary preferences over trajectories. From such expensive feedback, we aim to learn a model of the reward that allows standard RL algorithms to achieve high expected returns with as few expert queries as possible. To this end, we propose Information Directed Reward Learning (IDRL), which uses a Bayesian model of the reward and selects queries that maximize the information gain about the difference in return between plausibly optimal policies. In contrast to prior active reward learning methods designed for specific types of queries, IDRL naturally accommodates different query types. Moreover, it achieves similar or better performance with significantly fewer queries by shifting the focus from reducing the reward approximation error to improving the policy induced by the reward model. We support our findings with extensive evaluations in multiple environments and with different query types.

It is well known that machine learning methods can be vulnerable to adversarially-chosen perturbations of their inputs. Despite significant progress in the area, foundational open problems remain. In this paper, we address several key questions. We derive exact and approximate Bayes-optimal robust classifiers for the important setting of two- and three-class Gaussian classification problems with arbitrary imbalance, for $\ell_2$ and $\ell_\infty$ adversaries. In contrast to classical Bayes-optimal classifiers, determining the optimal decisions here cannot be made pointwise and new theoretical approaches are needed. We develop and leverage new tools, including recent breakthroughs from probability theory on robust isoperimetry, which, to our knowledge, have not yet been used in the area. Our results reveal fundamental tradeoffs between standard and robust accuracy that grow when data is imbalanced. We also show further results, including an analysis of classification calibration for convex losses in certain models, and finite sample rates for the robust risk.

This short paper describes a numerical method for optimising the conservative confidence bound on the reliability of a system based on tests of its individual components. This is an alternative to the algorithmic approaches identified in Bishop and Povyakalo (RESS 2020). For a given maximum number of component tests, the numerical method can derive an optimal test plan for any arbitrary system structure. The optimisation method is based on linear programming which is more efficient that the alternative integer programming. In addition, the optimisation process need only be performed once for any given system structure as the solution can be re-used to compute an optimal integer test plan for a different maximum number of component tests. This approach might have broader application to other optimisation problems that are normally implemented using integer programming methods.

Controlling the spread of infectious diseases, such as the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, is one of the most challenging problems for human civilization. The world is more populous and connected than ever before, and therefore, the rate of contagion for such diseases often becomes stupendous. The development and distribution of testing kits cannot keep up with the demand, making it impossible to test everyone. The next best option is to identify and isolate the people who come in close contact with an infected person. However, this apparently simple process, commonly known as - contact tracing, suffers from two major pitfalls: the requirement of a large amount of manpower to track the infected individuals manually and the breach in privacy and security while automating the process. Here, we propose a Bluetooth based contact tracing hardware with anonymous IDs to solve both the drawbacks of the existing approaches. The hardware will be a wearable device that every user can carry conveniently. This device will measure the distance between two users and exchange the IDs anonymously in the case of a close encounter. The anonymous IDs stored in the device of any newly infected individual will be used to trace the risky contacts and the status of the IDs will be updated consequently by authorized personnel. To demonstrate the concept, we simulate the working procedure and highlight the effectiveness of our technique to curb the spread of any contagious disease.

eCommerce transaction frauds keep changing rapidly. This is the major issue that prevents eCommerce merchants having a robust machine learning model for fraudulent transactions detection. The root cause of this problem is that rapid changing fraud patterns alters underlying data generating system and causes the performance deterioration for machine learning models. This phenomenon in statistical modeling is called "Concept Drift". To overcome this issue, we propose an approach which adds dynamic risk features as model inputs. Dynamic risk features are a set of features built on entity profile with fraud feedback. They are introduced to quantify the fluctuation of probability distribution of risk features from certain entity profile caused by concept drift. In this paper, we also illustrate why this strategy can successfully handle the effect of concept drift under statistical learning framework. We also validate our approach on multiple businesses in production and have verified that the proposed dynamic model has a superior ROC curve than a static model built on the same data and training parameters.

Machine Learning models become increasingly proficient in complex tasks. However, even for experts in the field, it can be difficult to understand what the model learned. This hampers trust and acceptance, and it obstructs the possibility to correct the model. There is therefore a need for transparency of machine learning models. The development of transparent classification models has received much attention, but there are few developments for achieving transparent Reinforcement Learning (RL) models. In this study we propose a method that enables a RL agent to explain its behavior in terms of the expected consequences of state transitions and outcomes. First, we define a translation of states and actions to a description that is easier to understand for human users. Second, we developed a procedure that enables the agent to obtain the consequences of a single action, as well as its entire policy. The method calculates contrasts between the consequences of a policy derived from a user query, and of the learned policy of the agent. Third, a format for generating explanations was constructed. A pilot survey study was conducted to explore preferences of users for different explanation properties. Results indicate that human users tend to favor explanations about policy rather than about single actions.

Despite of the success of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for image generation tasks, the trade-off between image diversity and visual quality are an well-known issue. Conventional techniques achieve either visual quality or image diversity; the improvement in one side is often the result of sacrificing the degradation in the other side. In this paper, we aim to achieve both simultaneously by improving the stability of training GANs. A key idea of the proposed approach is to implicitly regularizing the discriminator using a representative feature. For that, this representative feature is extracted from the data distribution, and then transferred to the discriminator for enforcing slow updates of the gradient. Consequently, the entire training process is stabilized because the learning curve of discriminator varies slowly. Based on extensive evaluation, we demonstrate that our approach improves the visual quality and diversity of state-of-the art GANs.