Predictions about people, such as their expected educational achievement or their credit risk, can be performative and shape the outcome that they aim to predict. Understanding the causal effect of these predictions on the eventual outcomes is crucial for foreseeing the implications of future predictive models and selecting which models to deploy. However, this causal estimation task poses unique challenges: model predictions are usually deterministic functions of input features and highly correlated with outcomes. This can make the causal effects of predictions on outcomes impossible to disentangle from the direct effect of the covariates. We study this problem through the lens of causal identifiability, and despite the hardness of this problem in full generality, we highlight three natural scenarios where the causal relationship between covariates, predictions and outcomes can be identified from observational data: randomization in predictions, overparameterization of the predictive model deployed during data collection, and discrete prediction outputs. Empirically we show that given our identifiability conditions hold, standard variants of supervised learning that predict from predictions by treating the prediction as an input feature can indeed find transferable functional relationships that allow for conclusions about newly deployed predictive models. These positive results fundamentally rely on model predictions being recorded during data collection, bringing forward the importance of rethinking standard data collection practices to enable progress towards a better understanding of social outcomes and performative feedback loops.
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Graph neural networks (GNNs) are widely used for modeling complex interactions between entities represented as vertices of a graph. Despite recent efforts to theoretically analyze the expressive power of GNNs, a formal characterization of their ability to model interactions is lacking. The current paper aims to address this gap. Formalizing strength of interactions through an established measure known as separation rank, we quantify the ability of certain GNNs to model interaction between a given subset of vertices and its complement, i.e. between sides of a given partition of input vertices. Our results reveal that the ability to model interaction is primarily determined by the partition's walk index -- a graph-theoretical characteristic that we define by the number of walks originating from the boundary of the partition. Experiments with common GNN architectures corroborate this finding. As a practical application of our theory, we design an edge sparsification algorithm named Walk Index Sparsification (WIS), which preserves the ability of a GNN to model interactions when input edges are removed. WIS is simple, computationally efficient, and markedly outperforms alternative methods in terms of induced prediction accuracy. More broadly, it showcases the potential of improving GNNs by theoretically analyzing the interactions they can model.
The task of Few-shot learning (FSL) aims to transfer the knowledge learned from base categories with sufficient labelled data to novel categories with scarce known information. It is currently an important research question and has great practical values in the real-world applications. Despite extensive previous efforts are made on few-shot learning tasks, we emphasize that most existing methods did not take into account the distributional shift caused by sample selection bias in the FSL scenario. Such a selection bias can induce spurious correlation between the semantic causal features, that are causally and semantically related to the class label, and the other non-causal features. Critically, the former ones should be invariant across changes in distributions, highly related to the classes of interest, and thus well generalizable to novel classes, while the latter ones are not stable to changes in the distribution. To resolve this problem, we propose a novel data augmentation strategy dubbed as PatchMix that can break this spurious dependency by replacing the patch-level information and supervision of the query images with random gallery images from different classes from the query ones. We theoretically show that such an augmentation mechanism, different from existing ones, is able to identify the causal features. To further make these features to be discriminative enough for classification, we propose Correlation-guided Reconstruction (CGR) and Hardness-Aware module for instance discrimination and easier discrimination between similar classes. Moreover, such a framework can be adapted to the unsupervised FSL scenario.
Tasks critical to enterprise profitability, such as customer churn prediction, fraudulent account detection or customer lifetime value estimation, are often tackled by models trained on features engineered from customer data in tabular format. Application-specific feature engineering adds development, operationalization and maintenance costs over time. Recent advances in representation learning present an opportunity to simplify and generalize feature engineering across applications. When applying these advancements to tabular data researchers deal with data heterogeneity, variations in customer engagement history or the sheer volume of enterprise datasets. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to encode tabular data containing customer transactions, purchase history and other interactions into a generic representation of a customer's association with the business. We then evaluate these embeddings as features to train multiple models spanning a variety of applications. CASPR, Customer Activity Sequence-based Prediction and Representation, applies Transformer architecture to encode activity sequences to improve model performance and avoid bespoke feature engineering across applications. Our experiments at scale validate CASPR for both small and large enterprise applications.
We present 2-dimensional turbulent electric field calculations via physics-informed deep learning consistent with (i) drift-reduced Braginskii theory under the framework of an axisymmetric fusion plasma with purely toroidal field and (ii) experimental estimates of the fluctuating electron density and temperature on open field lines obtained from analysis of gas puff imaging of a discharge on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The inclusion of effects from the locally puffed atomic helium on particle and energy sources within the reduced plasma turbulence model are found to strengthen correlations between the electric field and electron pressure. The neutrals are also directly associated with broadening the distribution of turbulent field amplitudes and increasing ${\bf E \times B}$ shearing rates. This demonstrates a novel approach in plasma experiments by solving for nonlinear dynamics consistent with partial differential equations and data without encoding explicit boundary nor initial conditions.
Classical functional linear regression models the relationship between a scalar response and a functional covariate, where the coefficient function is assumed to be identical for all subjects. In this paper, the classical model is extended to allow heterogeneous coefficient functions across different subgroups of subjects. The greatest challenge is that the subgroup structure is usually unknown to us. To this end, we develop a penalization-based approach which innovatively applies the penalized fusion technique to simultaneously determine the number and structure of subgroups and coefficient functions within each subgroup. An effective computational algorithm is derived. We also establish the oracle properties and estimation consistency. Extensive numerical simulations demonstrate its superiority compared to several competing methods. The analysis of an air quality dataset leads to interesting findings and improved predictions.
The study of compounds with antioxidant capabilities is of great interest to the scientific community, as it has implications in several areas, from Agricultural Sciences to Biological Sciences, including Food Engineering, Medicine and Pharmacy. In applications related to human health, it is known that antioxidant activity can delay or inhibit oxidative damage to cells, reducing damage caused by free radicals, helping in the treatment, or even preventing or postponing the onset of various diseases. Among the compounds that have antioxidant properties, there are several classes of Phenolic Compounds, which include several compounds with different chemical structures. In this work, based on the molecular branching of compounds and their intramolecular charge distributions, and using Molecular Topology, we propose a significant topological-mathematical model to evaluate the potential of candidate compounds to have an antioxidant function.
Understanding how changes in training data affect a trained model is critical to building trust in various stages of a machine learning pipeline: from cleaning poor-quality samples and tracking important ones to be collected during data preparation, to calibrating uncertainty of model prediction, to interpreting why certain behaviors of a model emerge during deployment. In this paper, we present a framework, Data2Model, for predicting the output model of a learning algorithm given the input data points. Specifically, Data2Model learns a parameterized function that takes a dataset $S$ as the input and predicts the model obtained by training on $S$. Despite the potential complexity of the underlying end-to-end training process being approximated, we show that a neural network-based set function class can successfully predict the trained model from its training data. We introduce novel global and local regularization techniques for preventing overfitting and rigorously characterize the expressive power of neural networks (NN) in approximating the end-to-end training process. We perform extensive empirical investigations and demonstrate that Data2Model gives rise to a wide range of applications that boost the interpretability and accountability of machine learning (ML), such as data valuation, data selection, memorization quantification, and model calibration.
We study a setting where Bayesian agents with a common prior have private information related to an event's outcome and sequentially make public announcements relating to their information. Our main result shows that when agents' private information is independent conditioning on the event's outcome whenever agents have similar beliefs about the outcome, their information is aggregated. That is, there is no false consensus. Our main result has a short proof based on a natural information theoretic framework. A key ingredient of the framework is the equivalence between the sign of the ``interaction information'' and a super/sub-additive property of the value of people's information. This provides an intuitive interpretation and an interesting application of the interaction information, which measures the amount of information shared by three random variables. We illustrate the power of this information theoretic framework by reproving two additional results within it: 1) that agents quickly agree when announcing (summaries of) beliefs in round robin fashion [Aaronson 2005]; and 2) results from [Chen et al 2010] on when prediction market agents should release information to maximize their payment. We also interpret the information theoretic framework and the above results in prediction markets by proving that the expected reward of revealing information is the conditional mutual information of the information revealed.
The concept of causality plays an important role in human cognition . In the past few decades, causal inference has been well developed in many fields, such as computer science, medicine, economics, and education. With the advancement of deep learning techniques, it has been increasingly used in causal inference against counterfactual data. Typically, deep causal models map the characteristics of covariates to a representation space and then design various objective optimization functions to estimate counterfactual data unbiasedly based on the different optimization methods. This paper focuses on the survey of the deep causal models, and its core contributions are as follows: 1) we provide relevant metrics under multiple treatments and continuous-dose treatment; 2) we incorporate a comprehensive overview of deep causal models from both temporal development and method classification perspectives; 3) we assist a detailed and comprehensive classification and analysis of relevant datasets and source code.
A fundamental goal of scientific research is to learn about causal relationships. However, despite its critical role in the life and social sciences, causality has not had the same importance in Natural Language Processing (NLP), which has traditionally placed more emphasis on predictive tasks. This distinction is beginning to fade, with an emerging area of interdisciplinary research at the convergence of causal inference and language processing. Still, research on causality in NLP remains scattered across domains without unified definitions, benchmark datasets and clear articulations of the remaining challenges. In this survey, we consolidate research across academic areas and situate it in the broader NLP landscape. We introduce the statistical challenge of estimating causal effects, encompassing settings where text is used as an outcome, treatment, or as a means to address confounding. In addition, we explore potential uses of causal inference to improve the performance, robustness, fairness, and interpretability of NLP models. We thus provide a unified overview of causal inference for the computational linguistics community.
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