We propose a framework for planning in unknown dynamic environments with probabilistic safety guarantees using conformal prediction. Particularly, we design a model predictive controller (MPC) that uses i) trajectory predictions of the dynamic environment, and ii) prediction regions quantifying the uncertainty of the predictions. To obtain prediction regions, we use conformal prediction, a statistical tool for uncertainty quantification, that requires availability of offline trajectory data - a reasonable assumption in many applications such as autonomous driving. The prediction regions are valid, i.e., they hold with a user-defined probability, so that the MPC is provably safe. We illustrate the results in the self-driving car simulator CARLA at a pedestrian-filled intersection. The strength of our approach is compatibility with state of the art trajectory predictors, e.g., RNNs and LSTMs, while making no assumptions on the underlying trajectory-generating distribution. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first results that provide valid safety guarantees in such a setting.
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In this paper, we view a policy or plan as a transition system over a space of information states that reflect a robot's or other observer's perspective based on limited sensing, memory, computation, and actuation. Regardless of whether policies are obtained by learning algorithms, planning algorithms, or human insight, we want to know the limits of feasibility for given robot hardware and tasks. Toward the quest to find the best policies, we establish in a general setting that minimal information transition systems (ITSs) exist up to reasonable equivalence assumptions, and are unique under some general conditions. We then apply the theory to generate new insights into several problems, including optimal sensor fusion/filtering, solving basic planning tasks, and finding minimal representations for feasible policies.
In cooperative Multi-Agent Planning (MAP), a set of goals has to be achieved by a set of agents. Independently of whether they perform a pre-assignment of goals to agents or they directly search for a solution without any goal assignment, most previous works did not focus on a fair distribution/achievement of goals by agents. This paper adapts well-known fairness schemes to MAP, and introduces two novel approaches to generate cost-aware fair plans. The first one solves an optimization problem to pre-assign goals to agents, and then solves a centralized MAP task using that assignment. The second one consists of a planning-based compilation that allows solving the joint problem of goal assignment and planning while taking into account the given fairness scheme. Empirical results in several standard MAP benchmarks show that these approaches outperform different baselines. They also show that there is no need to sacrifice much plan cost to generate fair plans.
This paper makes 3 contributions. First, it generalizes the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Central Limit Theorems to Hilbert Spaces by way of $L^2$. Second, it generalizes these results to spaces in which sample failure and missingness can occur. Finally, it shows that satisfaction of the Lindeberg\textendash Feller and Lyapunov Conditions in such spaces implies the satisfaction of the conditions in the completely observed space, and how this guarantees the consistency of inferences from the partial functional data. These latter two results are especially important given the increasing attention to statistical inference with partially observed functional data. This paper goes beyond previous research by providing simple boundedness conditions which guarantee that \textit{all} inferences, as opposed to some proper subset of them, will be consistently estimated. This is shown primarily by aggregating conditional expectations with respect to the space of missingness patterns. This paper appears to be the first to apply this technique.
This paper proposes Distributed Model Predictive Covariance Steering (DMPCS), a novel method for safe multi-robot control under uncertainty. The scope of our approach is to blend covariance steering theory, distributed optimization and model predictive control (MPC) into a single methodology that is safe, scalable and decentralized. Initially, we pose a problem formulation that uses the Wasserstein distance to steer the state distributions of a multi-robot team to desired targets, and probabilistic constraints to ensure safety. We then transform this problem into a finite-dimensional optimization one by utilizing a disturbance feedback policy parametrization for covariance steering and a tractable approximation of the safety constraints. To solve the latter problem, we derive a decentralized consensus-based algorithm using the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM). This method is then extended to a receding horizon form, which yields the proposed DMPCS algorithm. Simulation experiments on large-scale problems with up to hundreds of robots successfully demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of DMPCS. Its superior capability in achieving safety is also highlighted through a comparison against a standard stochastic MPC approach. A video with all simulation experiments is available in //youtu.be/Hks-0BRozxA.
This paper proposes an algorithm for motion planning among dynamic agents using adaptive conformal prediction. We consider a deterministic control system and use trajectory predictors to predict the dynamic agents' future motion, which is assumed to follow an unknown distribution. We then leverage ideas from adaptive conformal prediction to dynamically quantify prediction uncertainty from an online data stream. Particularly, we provide an online algorithm uses delayed agent observations to obtain uncertainty sets for multistep-ahead predictions with probabilistic coverage. These uncertainty sets are used within a model predictive controller to safely navigate among dynamic agents. While most existing data-driven prediction approached quantify prediction uncertainty heuristically, we quantify the true prediction uncertainty in a distribution-free, adaptive manner that even allows to capture changes in prediction quality and the agents' motion. We empirically evaluate of our algorithm on a simulation case studies where a drone avoids a flying frisbee.
A key barrier to using reinforcement learning (RL) in many real-world applications is the requirement of a large number of system interactions to learn a good control policy. Off-policy and Offline RL methods have been proposed to reduce the number of interactions with the physical environment by learning control policies from historical data. However, their performances suffer from the lack of exploration and the distributional shifts in trajectories once controllers are updated. Moreover, most RL methods require that all states are directly observed, which is difficult to be attained in many settings. To overcome these challenges, we propose a trajectory generation algorithm, which adaptively generates new trajectories as if the system is being operated and explored under the updated control policies. Motivated by the fundamental lemma for linear systems, assuming sufficient excitation, we generate trajectories from linear combinations of historical trajectories. For linear feedback control, we prove that the algorithm generates trajectories with the exact distribution as if they are sampled from the real system using the updated control policy. In particular, the algorithm extends to systems where the states are not directly observed. Experiments show that the proposed method significantly reduces the number of sampled data needed for RL algorithms.
Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a fundamental task. We propose a novel method of ARMA order identification through projection predictive inference, which is grounded in Bayesian decision theory and naturally allows for uncertainty communication. It benefits from improved stability through the use of a reference model. The procedure consists of two steps: in the first, the practitioner incorporates their understanding of underlying data-generating process into a reference model, which we latterly project onto possibly parsimonious submodels. These submodels are optimally inferred to best replicate the predictive performance of the reference model. We further propose a search heuristic amenable to the ARMA framework. We show that the submodels selected by our procedure exhibit predictive performance at least as good as those produced by auto.arima over simulated and real-data experiments, and in some cases out-perform the latter. Finally we show that our procedure is robust to noise, and scales well to larger data.
Predicting drug side-effects before they occur is a key task in keeping the number of drug-related hospitalizations low and to improve drug discovery processes. Automatic predictors of side-effects generally are not able to process the structure of the drug, resulting in a loss of information. Graph neural networks have seen great success in recent years, thanks to their ability of exploiting the information conveyed by the graph structure and labels. These models have been used in a wide variety of biological applications, among which the prediction of drug side-effects on a large knowledge graph. Exploiting the molecular graph encoding the structure of the drug represents a novel approach, in which the problem is formulated as a multi-class multi-label graph-focused classification. We developed a methodology to carry out this task, using recurrent Graph Neural Networks, and building a dataset from freely accessible and well established data sources. The results show that our method has an improved classification capability, under many parameters and metrics, with respect to previously available predictors.
This paper proposes a data and Machine Learning-based forecasting solution for the Telecommunications network-rollout planning problem. Milestone completion-time estimation is crucial to network-rollout planning; accurate estimates enable better crew utilisation and optimised cost of materials and logistics. Using historical data of milestone completion times, a model needs to incorporate domain knowledge, handle noise and yet be interpretable to project managers. This paper proposes partition-based regression models that incorporate data-driven statistical models within each partition, as a solution to the problem. Benchmarking experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach obtains competitive to better performance, at a small fraction of the model complexity of the best alternative approach based on Gradient Boosting. Experiments also demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective for both short and long-range forecasts. The proposed idea is applicable in any context requiring time-series regression with noisy and attributed data.
Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse traditional and deep learning models have been applied to discover the nonlinear relationships and recognize the complex patterns in these types of data. However, existing methods usually ignore the negative influence of imbalanced data, or severe events, on model training. Moreover, methods are usually evaluated on a small number of generally well-behaved time series, which does not show their ability to generalize. To tackle these issues, we propose a novel probability-enhanced neural network model, called NEC+, which concurrently learns extreme and normal prediction functions and a way to choose among them via selective back propagation. We evaluate the proposed model on the difficult 3-day ahead hourly water level prediction task applied to 9 reservoirs in California. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and exhibits superior generalization ability on data with diverse distributions.
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