We propose a set of goodness-of-fit tests for the semiparametric accelerated failure time (AFT) model, including an omnibus test, a link function test, and a functional form test. This set of tests is derived from a multi-parameter cumulative sum process shown to follow asymptotically a zero-mean Gaussian process. Its evaluation is based on the asymptotically equivalent perturbed version, which enables both graphical and numerical evaluations of the assumed AFT model. Empirical p-values are obtained using the Kolmogorov-type supremum test, which provides a reliable approach for estimating the significance of both proposed un-standardized and standardized test statistics. The proposed procedure is illustrated using the induced smoothed rank-based estimator but is directly applicable to other popular estimators such as non-smooth rank-based estimator or least-squares estimator.Our proposed methods are rigorously evaluated using extensive simulation experiments that demonstrate their effectiveness in maintaining a Type I error rate and detecting departures from the assumed AFT model in practical sample sizes and censoring rates. Furthermore, the proposed approach is applied to the analysis of the Primary Biliary Cirrhosis data, a widely studied dataset in survival analysis, providing further evidence of the practical usefulness of the proposed methods in real-world scenarios. To make the proposed methods more accessible to researchers, we have implemented them in the R package afttest, which is publicly available on the Comprehensive R Archieve Network.
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Order execution is a fundamental task in quantitative finance, aiming at finishing acquisition or liquidation for a number of trading orders of the specific assets. Recent advance in model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven solution to the order execution problem. However, the existing works always optimize execution for an individual order, overlooking the practice that multiple orders are specified to execute simultaneously, resulting in suboptimality and bias. In this paper, we first present a multi-agent RL (MARL) method for multi-order execution considering practical constraints. Specifically, we treat every agent as an individual operator to trade one specific order, while keeping communicating with each other and collaborating for maximizing the overall profits. Nevertheless, the existing MARL algorithms often incorporate communication among agents by exchanging only the information of their partial observations, which is inefficient in complicated financial market. To improve collaboration, we then propose a learnable multi-round communication protocol, for the agents communicating the intended actions with each other and refining accordingly. It is optimized through a novel action value attribution method which is provably consistent with the original learning objective yet more efficient. The experiments on the data from two real-world markets have illustrated superior performance with significantly better collaboration effectiveness achieved by our method.
Autonomous racing is a research field gaining large popularity, as it pushes autonomous driving algorithms to their limits and serves as a catalyst for general autonomous driving. For scaled autonomous racing platforms, the computational constraint and complexity often limit the use of Model Predictive Control (MPC). As a consequence, geometric controllers are the most frequently deployed controllers. They prove to be performant while yielding implementation and operational simplicity. Yet, they inherently lack the incorporation of model dynamics, thus limiting the race car to a velocity domain where tire slip can be neglected. This paper presents Model- and Acceleration-based Pursuit (MAP) a high-performance model-based trajectory tracking algorithm that preserves the simplicity of geometric approaches while leveraging tire dynamics. The proposed algorithm allows accurate tracking of a trajectory at unprecedented velocities compared to State-of-the-Art (SotA) geometric controllers. The MAP controller is experimentally validated and outperforms the reference geometric controller four-fold in terms of lateral tracking error, yielding a tracking error of 0.055m at tested speeds up to 11m/s.
In today's fast-paced world, the rates of stress and depression present a surge. Social media provide assistance for the early detection of mental health conditions. Existing methods mainly introduce feature extraction approaches and train shallow machine learning classifiers. Other researches use deep neural networks or transformers. Despite the fact that transformer-based models achieve noticeable improvements, they cannot often capture rich factual knowledge. Although there have been proposed a number of studies aiming to enhance the pretrained transformer-based models with extra information or additional modalities, no prior work has exploited these modifications for detecting stress and depression through social media. In addition, although the reliability of a machine learning model's confidence in its predictions is critical for high-risk applications, there is no prior work taken into consideration the model calibration. To resolve the above issues, we present the first study in the task of depression and stress detection in social media, which injects extra linguistic information in transformer-based models, namely BERT and MentalBERT. Specifically, the proposed approach employs a Multimodal Adaptation Gate for creating the combined embeddings, which are given as input to a BERT (or MentalBERT) model. For taking into account the model calibration, we apply label smoothing. We test our proposed approaches in three publicly available datasets and demonstrate that the integration of linguistic features into transformer-based models presents a surge in the performance. Also, the usage of label smoothing contributes to both the improvement of the model's performance and the calibration of the model. We finally perform a linguistic analysis of the posts and show differences in language between stressful and non-stressful texts, as well as depressive and non-depressive posts.
Image super-resolution (SR) with generative adversarial networks (GAN) has achieved great success in restoring realistic details. However, it is notorious that GAN-based SR models will inevitably produce unpleasant and undesirable artifacts, especially in practical scenarios. Previous works typically suppress artifacts with an extra loss penalty in the training phase. They only work for in-distribution artifact types generated during training. When applied in real-world scenarios, we observe that those improved methods still generate obviously annoying artifacts during inference. In this paper, we analyze the cause and characteristics of the GAN artifacts produced in unseen test data without ground-truths. We then develop a novel method, namely, DeSRA, to Detect and then Delete those SR Artifacts in practice. Specifically, we propose to measure a relative local variance distance from MSE-SR results and GAN-SR results, and locate the problematic areas based on the above distance and semantic-aware thresholds. After detecting the artifact regions, we develop a finetune procedure to improve GAN-based SR models with a few samples, so that they can deal with similar types of artifacts in more unseen real data. Equipped with our DeSRA, we can successfully eliminate artifacts from inference and improve the ability of SR models to be applied in real-world scenarios. The code will be available at //github.com/TencentARC/DeSRA.
Model overconfidence and poor calibration are common in machine learning and difficult to account for when applying standard empirical risk minimization. In this work, we propose a novel method to alleviate these problems that we call odd-$k$-out learning (OKO), which minimizes the cross-entropy error for sets rather than for single examples. This naturally allows the model to capture correlations across data examples and achieves both better accuracy and calibration, especially in limited training data and class-imbalanced regimes. Perhaps surprisingly, OKO often yields better calibration even when training with hard labels and dropping any additional calibration parameter tuning, such as temperature scaling. We provide theoretical justification, establishing that OKO naturally yields better calibration, and provide extensive experimental analyses that corroborate our theoretical findings. We emphasize that OKO is a general framework that can be easily adapted to many settings and the trained model can be applied to single examples at inference time, without introducing significant run-time overhead or architecture changes.
Probability density estimation is a core problem of statistics and signal processing. Moment methods are an important means of density estimation, but they are generally strongly dependent on the choice of feasible functions, which severely affects the performance. In this paper, we propose a non-classical parametrization for density estimation using sample moments, which does not require the choice of such functions. The parametrization is induced by the squared Hellinger distance, and the solution of it, which is proved to exist and be unique subject to a simple prior that does not depend on data, and can be obtained by convex optimization. Statistical properties of the density estimator, together with an asymptotic error upper bound are proposed for the estimator by power moments. Applications of the proposed density estimator in signal processing tasks are given. Simulation results validate the performance of the estimator by a comparison to several prevailing methods. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed estimator is the first one in the literature for which the power moments up to an arbitrary even order exactly match the sample moments, while the true density is not assumed to fall within specific function classes.
We consider a class of stochastic smooth convex optimization problems under rather general assumptions on the noise in the stochastic gradient observation. As opposed to the classical problem setting in which the variance of noise is assumed to be uniformly bounded, herein we assume that the variance of stochastic gradients is related to the "sub-optimality" of the approximate solutions delivered by the algorithm. Such problems naturally arise in a variety of applications, in particular, in the well-known generalized linear regression problem in statistics. However, to the best of our knowledge, none of the existing stochastic approximation algorithms for solving this class of problems attain optimality in terms of the dependence on accuracy, problem parameters, and mini-batch size. We discuss two non-Euclidean accelerated stochastic approximation routines--stochastic accelerated gradient descent (SAGD) and stochastic gradient extrapolation (SGE)--which carry a particular duality relationship. We show that both SAGD and SGE, under appropriate conditions, achieve the optimal convergence rate, attaining the optimal iteration and sample complexities simultaneously. However, corresponding assumptions for the SGE algorithm are more general; they allow, for instance, for efficient application of the SGE to statistical estimation problems under heavy tail noises and discontinuous score functions. We also discuss the application of the SGE to problems satisfying quadratic growth conditions, and show how it can be used to recover sparse solutions. Finally, we report on some simulation experiments to illustrate numerical performance of our proposed algorithms in high-dimensional settings.
Exploiting the computational heterogeneity of mobile devices and edge nodes, mobile edge computation (MEC) provides an efficient approach to achieving real-time applications that are sensitive to information freshness, by offloading tasks from mobile devices to edge nodes. We use the metric Age-of-Information (AoI) to evaluate information freshness. An efficient solution to minimize the AoI for the MEC system with multiple users is non-trivial to obtain due to the random computing time. In this paper, we consider multiple users offloading tasks to heterogeneous edge servers in a MEC system. We first reformulate the problem as a Restless Multi-Arm-Bandit (RMAB) problem and establish a hierarchical Markov Decision Process (MDP) to characterize the updating of AoI for the MEC system. Based on the hierarchical MDP, we propose a nested index framework and design a nested index policy with provably asymptotic optimality. Finally, the closed form of the nested index is obtained, which enables the performance tradeoffs between computation complexity and accuracy. Our algorithm leads to an optimality gap reduction of up to 40%, compared to benchmarks. Our algorithm asymptotically approximates the lower bound as the system scalar gets large enough.
In this paper, we consider estimating spot/instantaneous volatility matrices of high-frequency data collected for a large number of assets. We first combine classic nonparametric kernel-based smoothing with a generalised shrinkage technique in the matrix estimation for noise-free data under a uniform sparsity assumption, a natural extension of the approximate sparsity commonly used in the literature. The uniform consistency property is derived for the proposed spot volatility matrix estimator with convergence rates comparable to the optimal minimax one. For the high-frequency data contaminated by microstructure noise, we introduce a localised pre-averaging estimation method that reduces the effective magnitude of the noise. We then use the estimation tool developed in the noise-free scenario, and derive the uniform convergence rates for the developed spot volatility matrix estimator. We further combine the kernel smoothing with the shrinkage technique to estimate the time-varying volatility matrix of the high-dimensional noise vector. In addition, we consider large spot volatility matrix estimation in time-varying factor models with observable risk factors and derive the uniform convergence property. We provide numerical studies including simulation and empirical application to examine the performance of the proposed estimation methods in finite samples.
Parameter Identification for Partial Differential Equations with Spatiotemporal Varying Coefficients
To comprehend complex systems with multiple states, it is imperative to reveal the identity of these states by system outputs. Nevertheless, the mathematical models describing these systems often exhibit nonlinearity so that render the resolution of the parameter inverse problem from the observed spatiotemporal data a challenging endeavor. Starting from the observed data obtained from such systems, we propose a novel framework that facilitates the investigation of parameter identification for multi-state systems governed by spatiotemporal varying parametric partial differential equations. Our framework consists of two integral components: a constrained self-adaptive physics-informed neural network, encompassing a sub-network, as our methodology for parameter identification, and a finite mixture model approach to detect regions of probable parameter variations. Through our scheme, we can precisely ascertain the unknown varying parameters of the complex multi-state system, thereby accomplishing the inversion of the varying parameters. Furthermore, we have showcased the efficacy of our framework on two numerical cases: the 1D Burgers' equation with time-varying parameters and the 2D wave equation with a space-varying parameter.
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