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Message-passing graph neural networks (MPNNs) emerged as powerful tools for processing graph-structured input. However, they operate on a fixed input graph structure, ignoring potential noise and missing information. Furthermore, their local aggregation mechanism can lead to problems such as over-squashing and limited expressive power in capturing relevant graph structures. Existing solutions to these challenges have primarily relied on heuristic methods, often disregarding the underlying data distribution. Hence, devising principled approaches for learning to infer graph structures relevant to the given prediction task remains an open challenge. In this work, leveraging recent progress in exact and differentiable $k$-subset sampling, we devise probabilistically rewired MPNNs (PR-MPNNs), which learn to add relevant edges while omitting less beneficial ones. For the first time, our theoretical analysis explores how PR-MPNNs enhance expressive power, and we identify precise conditions under which they outperform purely randomized approaches. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach effectively mitigates issues like over-squashing and under-reaching. In addition, on established real-world datasets, our method exhibits competitive or superior predictive performance compared to traditional MPNN models and recent graph transformer architectures.

Off-Policy Prediction (OPP), i.e., predicting the outcomes of a target policy using only data collected under a nominal (behavioural) policy, is a paramount problem in data-driven analysis of safety-critical systems where the deployment of a new policy may be unsafe. To achieve dependable off-policy predictions, recent work on Conformal Off-Policy Prediction (COPP) leverage the conformal prediction framework to derive prediction regions with probabilistic guarantees under the target process. Existing COPP methods can account for the distribution shifts induced by policy switching, but are limited to single-agent systems and scalar outcomes (e.g., rewards). In this work, we introduce MA-COPP, the first conformal prediction method to solve OPP problems involving multi-agent systems, deriving joint prediction regions for all agents' trajectories when one or more "ego" agents change their policies. Unlike the single-agent scenario, this setting introduces higher complexity as the distribution shifts affect predictions for all agents, not just the ego agents, and the prediction task involves full multi-dimensional trajectories, not just reward values. A key contribution of MA-COPP is to avoid enumeration or exhaustive search of the output space of agent trajectories, which is instead required by existing COPP methods to construct the prediction region. We achieve this by showing that an over-approximation of the true JPR can be constructed, without enumeration, from the maximum density ratio of the JPR trajectories. We evaluate the effectiveness of MA-COPP in multi-agent systems from the PettingZoo library and the F1TENTH autonomous racing environment, achieving nominal coverage in higher dimensions and various shift settings.

The vector autoregression (VAR) has been widely used in system identification, econometrics, natural science, and many other areas. However, when the state dimension becomes large the parameter dimension explodes. So rank reduced modelling is attractive and is well developed. But a fundamental requirement in almost all applications is stability of the fitted model. And this has not been addressed in the rank reduced case. Here, we develop, for the first time, a closed-form formula for an estimator of a rank reduced transition matrix which is guaranteed to be stable. We show that our estimator is consistent and asymptotically statistically efficient and illustrate it in comparative simulations.

In this paper we study consensus-based optimization (CBO), which is a multi-agent metaheuristic derivative-free optimization method that can globally minimize nonconvex nonsmooth functions and is amenable to theoretical analysis. Based on an experimentally supported intuition that, on average, CBO performs a gradient descent of the squared Euclidean distance to the global minimizer, we devise a novel technique for proving the convergence to the global minimizer in mean-field law for a rich class of objective functions. The result unveils internal mechanisms of CBO that are responsible for the success of the method. In particular, we prove that CBO performs a convexification of a large class of optimization problems as the number of optimizing agents goes to infinity. Furthermore, we improve prior analyses by requiring mild assumptions about the initialization of the method and by covering objectives that are merely locally Lipschitz continuous. As a core component of this analysis, we establish a quantitative nonasymptotic Laplace principle, which may be of independent interest. From the result of CBO convergence in mean-field law, it becomes apparent that the hardness of any global optimization problem is necessarily encoded in the rate of the mean-field approximation, for which we provide a novel probabilistic quantitative estimate. The combination of these results allows to obtain probabilistic global convergence guarantees of the numerical CBO method.

With the rise of powerful pre-trained vision-language models like CLIP, it becomes essential to investigate ways to adapt these models to downstream datasets. A recently proposed method named Context Optimization (CoOp) introduces the concept of prompt learning -- a recent trend in NLP -- to the vision domain for adapting pre-trained vision-language models. Specifically, CoOp turns context words in a prompt into a set of learnable vectors and, with only a few labeled images for learning, can achieve huge improvements over intensively-tuned manual prompts. In our study we identify a critical problem of CoOp: the learned context is not generalizable to wider unseen classes within the same dataset, suggesting that CoOp overfits base classes observed during training. To address the problem, we propose Conditional Context Optimization (CoCoOp), which extends CoOp by further learning a lightweight neural network to generate for each image an input-conditional token (vector). Compared to CoOp's static prompts, our dynamic prompts adapt to each instance and are thus less sensitive to class shift. Extensive experiments show that CoCoOp generalizes much better than CoOp to unseen classes, even showing promising transferability beyond a single dataset; and yields stronger domain generalization performance as well. Code is available at //github.com/KaiyangZhou/CoOp.

The essence of multivariate sequential learning is all about how to extract dependencies in data. These data sets, such as hourly medical records in intensive care units and multi-frequency phonetic time series, often time exhibit not only strong serial dependencies in the individual components (the "marginal" memory) but also non-negligible memories in the cross-sectional dependencies (the "joint" memory). Because of the multivariate complexity in the evolution of the joint distribution that underlies the data generating process, we take a data-driven approach and construct a novel recurrent network architecture, termed Memory-Gated Recurrent Networks (mGRN), with gates explicitly regulating two distinct types of memories: the marginal memory and the joint memory. Through a combination of comprehensive simulation studies and empirical experiments on a range of public datasets, we show that our proposed mGRN architecture consistently outperforms state-of-the-art architectures targeting multivariate time series.

Few-shot Knowledge Graph (KG) completion is a focus of current research, where each task aims at querying unseen facts of a relation given its few-shot reference entity pairs. Recent attempts solve this problem by learning static representations of entities and references, ignoring their dynamic properties, i.e., entities may exhibit diverse roles within task relations, and references may make different contributions to queries. This work proposes an adaptive attentional network for few-shot KG completion by learning adaptive entity and reference representations. Specifically, entities are modeled by an adaptive neighbor encoder to discern their task-oriented roles, while references are modeled by an adaptive query-aware aggregator to differentiate their contributions. Through the attention mechanism, both entities and references can capture their fine-grained semantic meanings, and thus render more expressive representations. This will be more predictive for knowledge acquisition in the few-shot scenario. Evaluation in link prediction on two public datasets shows that our approach achieves new state-of-the-art results with different few-shot sizes.

We present CoDEx, a set of knowledge graph completion datasets extracted from Wikidata and Wikipedia that improve upon existing knowledge graph completion benchmarks in scope and level of difficulty. In terms of scope, CoDEx comprises three knowledge graphs varying in size and structure, multilingual descriptions of entities and relations, and tens of thousands of hard negative triples that are plausible but verified to be false. To characterize CoDEx, we contribute thorough empirical analyses and benchmarking experiments. First, we analyze each CoDEx dataset in terms of logical relation patterns. Next, we report baseline link prediction and triple classification results on CoDEx for five extensively tuned embedding models. Finally, we differentiate CoDEx from the popular FB15K-237 knowledge graph completion dataset by showing that CoDEx covers more diverse and interpretable content, and is a more difficult link prediction benchmark. Data, code, and pretrained models are available at //bit.ly/2EPbrJs.

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) has demonstrated the superior performance in many challenging applications, including the few-shot learning tasks. Despite its powerful capacity to learn and generalize from few samples, GNN usually suffers from severe over-fitting and over-smoothing as the model becomes deep, which limit the model scalability. In this work, we propose a novel Attentive GNN to tackle these challenges, by incorporating a triple-attention mechanism, \ie node self-attention, neighborhood attention, and layer memory attention. We explain why the proposed attentive modules can improve GNN for few-shot learning with theoretical analysis and illustrations. Extensive experiments show that the proposed Attentive GNN outperforms the state-of-the-art GNN-based methods for few-shot learning over the mini-ImageNet and Tiered-ImageNet datasets, with both inductive and transductive settings.

Knowledge graphs (KGs) serve as useful resources for various natural language processing applications. Previous KG completion approaches require a large number of training instances (i.e., head-tail entity pairs) for every relation. The real case is that for most of the relations, very few entity pairs are available. Existing work of one-shot learning limits method generalizability for few-shot scenarios and does not fully use the supervisory information; however, few-shot KG completion has not been well studied yet. In this work, we propose a novel few-shot relation learning model (FSRL) that aims at discovering facts of new relations with few-shot references. FSRL can effectively capture knowledge from heterogeneous graph structure, aggregate representations of few-shot references, and match similar entity pairs of reference set for every relation. Extensive experiments on two public datasets demonstrate that FSRL outperforms the state-of-the-art.