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Although information theory has found success in disciplines, the literature on its applications to software evolution is limit. We are still missing artifacts that leverage the data and tooling available to measure how the information content of a project can be a proxy for its complexity. In this work, we explore two definitions of entropy, one structural and one textual, and apply it to the historical progression of the commit history of 25 open source projects. We produce evidence that they generally are highly correlated. We also observed that they display weak and unstable correlations with other complexity metrics. Our preliminary investigation of outliers shows an unexpected high frequency of events where there is considerable change in the information content of the project, suggesting that such outliers may inform a definition of surprisal.

Relational verification encompasses information flow security, regression verification, translation validation for compilers, and more. Effective alignment of the programs and computations to be related facilitates use of simpler relational invariants and relational procedure specs, which in turn enables automation and modular reasoning. Alignment has been explored in terms of trace pairs, deductive rules of relational Hoare logics (RHL), and several forms of product automata. This article shows how a simple extension of Kleene Algebra with Tests (KAT), called BiKAT, subsumes prior formulations, including alignment witnesses for forall-exists properties, which brings to light new RHL-style rules for such properties. Alignments can be discovered algorithmically or devised manually but, in either case, their adequacy with respect to the original programs must be proved; an explicit algebra enables constructive proof by equational reasoning. Furthermore our approach inherits algorithmic benefits from existing KAT-based techniques and tools, which are applicable to a range of semantic models.

This paper solves the continuous classification problem for finite clouds of unlabelled points under Euclidean isometry. The Lipschitz continuity of required invariants in a suitable metric under perturbations of points is motivated by the inevitable noise in measurements of real objects. The best solved case of this isometry classification is known as the SSS theorem in school geometry saying that any triangle up to congruence (isometry in the plane) has a continuous complete invariant of three side lengths. However, there is no easy extension of the SSS theorem even to four points in the plane partially due to a 4-parameter family of 4-point clouds that have the same six pairwise distances. The computational time of most past metrics that are invariant under isometry was exponential in the size of the input. The final obstacle was the discontinuity of previous invariants at singular configurations, for example, when a triangle degenerates to a straight line. All the challenges above are now resolved by the Simplexwise Centred Distributions that combine inter-point distances of a given cloud with the new strength of a simplex that finally guarantees the Lipschitz continuity. The computational times of new invariants and metrics are polynomial in the number of points for a fixed Euclidean dimension.

Meshfree Lagrangian frameworks for free surface flow simulations do not conserve fluid volume. Meshfree particle methods like SPH are not mimetic, in the sense that discrete mass conservation does not imply discrete volume conservation. On the other hand, meshfree collocation methods typically do not use any notion of mass. As a result, they are neither mass conservative nor volume conservative at the discrete level. In this paper, we give an overview of various sources of conservation errors across different meshfree methods. The present work focuses on one specific issue: unreliable volume and mass definitions. We introduce the concept of representative masses and densities, which are essential for accurate post-processing especially in meshfree collocation methods. Using these, we introduce an artificial compression or expansion in the fluid to rectify errors in volume conservation. Numerical experiments show that the introduced frameworks significantly improve volume conservation behaviour, even for complex industrial test cases such as automotive water crossing.

In this paper we discuss how to evaluate the differences between fitted logistic regression models across sub-populations. Our motivating example is in studying computerized diagnosis for learning disabilities, where sub-populations based on gender may or may not require separate models. In this context, significance tests for hypotheses of no difference between populations may provide perverse incentives, as larger variances and smaller samples increase the probability of not-rejecting the null. We argue that equivalence testing for a prespecified tolerance level on population differences incentivizes accuracy in the inference. We develop a cascading set of equivalence tests, in which each test addresses a different aspect of the model: the way the phenomenon is coded in the regression coefficients, the individual predictions in the per example log odds ratio and the overall accuracy in the mean square prediction error. For each equivalence test, we propose a strategy for setting the equivalence thresholds. The large-sample approximations are validated using simulations. For diagnosis data, we show examples for equivalent and non-equivalent models.

This paper focuses on parameter estimation and introduces a new method for lower bounding the Bayesian risk. The method allows for the use of virtually \emph{any} information measure, including R\'enyi's $\alpha$, $\varphi$-Divergences, and Sibson's $\alpha$-Mutual Information. The approach considers divergences as functionals of measures and exploits the duality between spaces of measures and spaces of functions. In particular, we show that one can lower bound the risk with any information measure by upper bounding its dual via Markov's inequality. We are thus able to provide estimator-independent impossibility results thanks to the Data-Processing Inequalities that divergences satisfy. The results are then applied to settings of interest involving both discrete and continuous parameters, including the ``Hide-and-Seek'' problem, and compared to the state-of-the-art techniques. An important observation is that the behaviour of the lower bound in the number of samples is influenced by the choice of the information measure. We leverage this by introducing a new divergence inspired by the ``Hockey-Stick'' Divergence, which is demonstrated empirically to provide the largest lower-bound across all considered settings. If the observations are subject to privatisation, stronger impossibility results can be obtained via Strong Data-Processing Inequalities. The paper also discusses some generalisations and alternative directions.

As the issue of robustness in AI systems becomes vital, statistical learning techniques that are reliable even in presence of partly contaminated data have to be developed. Preference data, in the form of (complete) rankings in the simplest situations, are no exception and the demand for appropriate concepts and tools is all the more pressing given that technologies fed by or producing this type of data (e.g. search engines, recommending systems) are now massively deployed. However, the lack of vector space structure for the set of rankings (i.e. the symmetric group $\mathfrak{S}_n$) and the complex nature of statistics considered in ranking data analysis make the formulation of robustness objectives in this domain challenging. In this paper, we introduce notions of robustness, together with dedicated statistical methods, for Consensus Ranking the flagship problem in ranking data analysis, aiming at summarizing a probability distribution on $\mathfrak{S}_n$ by a median ranking. Precisely, we propose specific extensions of the popular concept of breakdown point, tailored to consensus ranking, and address the related computational issues. Beyond the theoretical contributions, the relevance of the approach proposed is supported by an experimental study.

Motivated by applications in personalized medicine and individualized policy making, there is a growing interest in techniques for quantifying treatment effect heterogeneity in terms of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). Some of the most prominent methods for CATE estimation developed in recent years are T-Learner, DR-Learner and R-Learner. The latter two were designed to improve on the former by being Neyman-orthogonal. However, the relations between them remain unclear, and likewise does the literature remain vague on whether these learners converge to a useful quantity or (functional) estimand when the underlying optimization procedure is restricted to a class of functions that does not include the CATE. In this article, we provide insight into these questions by discussing DR-learner and R-learner as special cases of a general class of Neyman-orthogonal learners for the CATE, for which we moreover derive oracle bounds. Our results shed light on how one may construct Neyman-orthogonal learners with desirable properties, on when DR-learner may be preferred over R-learner (and vice versa), and on novel learners that may sometimes be preferable to either of these. Theoretical findings are confirmed using results from simulation studies on synthetic data, as well as an application in critical care medicine.

Recently, addressing spatial confounding has become a major topic in spatial statistics. However, the literature has provided conflicting definitions, and many proposed definitions do not address the issue of confounding as it is understood in causal inference. We define spatial confounding as the existence of an unmeasured causal confounder with a spatial structure. We present a causal inference framework for nonparametric identification of the causal effect of a continuous exposure on an outcome in the presence of spatial confounding. We propose double machine learning (DML), a procedure in which flexible models are used to regress both the exposure and outcome variables on confounders to arrive at a causal estimator with favorable robustness properties and convergence rates, and we prove that this approach is consistent and asymptotically normal under spatial dependence. As far as we are aware, this is the first approach to spatial confounding that does not rely on restrictive parametric assumptions (such as linearity, effect homogeneity, or Gaussianity) for both identification and estimation. We demonstrate the advantages of the DML approach analytically and in simulations. We apply our methods and reasoning to a study of the effect of fine particulate matter exposure during pregnancy on birthweight in California.

This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.