This study evaluates the effect of counterfactual explanations on the interpretation of chest X-rays. We conduct a reader study with two radiologists assessing 240 chest X-ray predictions to rate their confidence that the model's prediction is correct using a 5 point scale. Half of the predictions are false positives. Each prediction is explained twice, once using traditional attribution methods and once with a counterfactual explanation. The overall results indicate that counterfactual explanations allow a radiologist to have more confidence in true positive predictions compared to traditional approaches (0.15$\pm$0.95 with p=0.01) with only a small increase in false positive predictions (0.04$\pm$1.06 with p=0.57). We observe the specific prediction tasks of Mass and Atelectasis appear to benefit the most compared to other tasks.
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Evidence plays a crucial role in automated fact-checking. When verifying real-world claims, existing fact-checking systems either assume the evidence sentences are given or use the search snippets returned by the search engine. Such methods ignore the challenges of collecting evidence and may not provide sufficient information to verify real-world claims. Aiming at building a better fact-checking system, we propose to incorporate full text from source documents as evidence and introduce two enriched datasets. The first one is a multilingual dataset, while the second one is monolingual (English). We further develop a latent variable model to jointly extract evidence sentences from documents and perform claim verification. Experiments indicate that including source documents can provide sufficient contextual clues even when gold evidence sentences are not annotated. The proposed system is able to achieve significant improvements upon best-reported models under different settings.
Estimating average causal effects is a common practice to test new treatments. However, the average effect ''masks'' important individual characteristics in the counterfactual distribution, which may lead to safety, fairness, and ethical concerns. This issue is exacerbated in the temporal setting, where the treatment is sequential and time-varying, leading to an intricate influence on the counterfactual distribution. In this paper, we propose a novel conditional generative modeling approach to capture the whole counterfactual distribution, allowing efficient inference on certain statistics of the counterfactual distribution. This makes the proposed approach particularly suitable for healthcare and public policy making. Our generative modeling approach carefully tackles the distribution mismatch in the observed data and the targeted counterfactual distribution via a marginal structural model. Our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on both synthetic and real data.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful generative Artificial Intelligence solutions which can be applied to several fields and areas of work. This paper presents results and reflection of an experiment done to use the model GPT 3.5-Turbo to emulate some aspects of an inductive Thematic Analysis. Previous research on this subject has largely worked on conducting deductive analysis. Thematic Analysis is a qualitative method for analysis commonly used in social sciences and it is based on interpretations made by the human analyst(s) and the identification of explicit and latent meanings in qualitative data. Attempting an analysis based on human interpretation with an LLM clearly is a provocation but also a way to learn something about how these systems can or cannot be used in qualitative research. The paper presents the motivations for attempting this emulation, it reflects on how the six steps to a Thematic Analysis proposed by Braun and Clarke can at least partially be reproduced with the LLM and it also reflects on what are the outputs produced by the model. The paper used two existing datasets of open access semi-structured interviews, previously analysed with Thematic Analysis by other researchers. It used the previously produced analysis (and the related themes) to compare with the results produced by the LLM. The results show that the model can infer at least partially some of the main Themes. The objective of the paper is not to replace human analysts in qualitative analysis but to learn if some elements of LLM data manipulation can to an extent be of support for qualitative research.
From the social sciences to machine learning, it has been well documented that metrics to be optimized are not always aligned with social welfare. In healthcare, Dranove et al. [12] showed that publishing surgery mortality metrics actually harmed the welfare of sicker patients by increasing provider selection behavior. Using a principal-agent model, we directly study the incentive misalignments that arise from such average treated outcome metrics, and show that the incentives driving treatment decisions would align with maximizing total patient welfare if the metrics (i) accounted for counterfactual untreated outcomes and (ii) considered total welfare instead of average welfare among treated patients. Operationalizing this, we show how counterfactual metrics can be modified to satisfy desirable properties when used for ranking. Extending to realistic settings when the providers observe more about patients than the regulatory agencies do, we bound the decay in performance by the degree of information asymmetry between the principal and the agent. In doing so, our model connects principal-agent information asymmetry with unobserved heterogeneity in causal inference.
Instruction-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited impressive language understanding and the capacity to generate responses that follow specific instructions. However, due to the computational demands associated with training these models, their applications often rely on zero-shot settings. In this paper, we evaluate the zero-shot performance of two publicly accessible LLMs, ChatGPT and OpenAssistant, in the context of Computational Social Science classification tasks, while also investigating the effects of various prompting strategies. Our experiment considers the impact of prompt complexity, including the effect of incorporating label definitions into the prompt, using synonyms for label names, and the influence of integrating past memories during the foundation model training. The findings indicate that in a zero-shot setting, the current LLMs are unable to match the performance of smaller, fine-tuned baseline transformer models (such as BERT). Additionally, we find that different prompting strategies can significantly affect classification accuracy, with variations in accuracy and F1 scores exceeding 10%.
Considerable advancements have been made to tackle the misrepresentation of information derived from reference articles in the domains of fact-checking and faithful summarization. However, an unaddressed aspect remains - the identification of social media posts that manipulate information within associated news articles. This task presents a significant challenge, primarily due to the prevalence of personal opinions in such posts. We present a novel task, identifying manipulation of news on social media, which aims to detect manipulation in social media posts and identify manipulated or inserted information. To study this task, we have proposed a data collection schema and curated a dataset called ManiTweet, consisting of 3.6K pairs of tweets and corresponding articles. Our analysis demonstrates that this task is highly challenging, with large language models (LLMs) yielding unsatisfactory performance. Additionally, we have developed a simple yet effective basic model that outperforms LLMs significantly on the ManiTweet dataset. Finally, we have conducted an exploratory analysis of human-written tweets, unveiling intriguing connections between manipulation and the domain and factuality of news articles, as well as revealing that manipulated sentences are more likely to encapsulate the main story or consequences of a news outlet.
Counterfactual Explanations are becoming a de-facto standard in post-hoc interpretable machine learning. For a given classifier and an instance classified in an undesired class, its counterfactual explanation corresponds to small perturbations of that instance that allows changing the classification outcome. This work aims to leverage Counterfactual Explanations to detect the important decision boundaries of a pre-trained black-box model. This information is used to build a supervised discretization of the features in the dataset with a tunable granularity. Using the discretized dataset, an optimal Decision Tree can be trained that resembles the black-box model, but that is interpretable and compact. Numerical results on real-world datasets show the effectiveness of the approach in terms of accuracy and sparsity.
Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown enhanced capabilities of solving novel tasks by reasoning step-by-step known as Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning; how can we instill the same capability of reasoning step-by-step on unseen tasks into LMs that possess less than <100B parameters? To address this question, we first introduce the CoT Collection, a new instruction-tuning dataset that augments 1.88 million CoT rationales across 1,060 tasks. We show that continually fine-tuning Flan-T5 (3B & 11B) with the CoT Collection enables the 3B & 11B LMs to perform CoT better on unseen tasks, leading to an improvement in the average zero-shot accuracy on 27 datasets of the BIG-Bench-Hard benchmark by +4.34% and +2.44%, respectively. Furthermore, we show that instruction tuning with CoT allows LMs to possess stronger few-shot learning capabilities, resulting in an improvement of +2.97% and +2.37% on 4 domain-specific tasks over Flan-T5 (3B & 11B), respectively. We make our CoT Collection data and our trained models publicly available at //github.com/kaist-lklab/CoT-Collection.
The Message Queuing Telemetry Transport (MQTT) protocol is one of the most widely used IoT protocol solutions. In this work, we are especially interested in open-source MQTT Broker implementations (such as Mosquitto, EMQX, RabbitMQ, VerneMQ, and HiveMQ). To this end, we engineer a network testbed to experimentally benchmark the performance of these implementations in an edge computing context with constrained devices. In more detail, we engineer an automated deployment and orchestration of the containerized MQTT broker implementations, with support for deployment across either moderately powerful AMD64 devices, or more resource constrained ARM64 devices. The proposed MQTT implementations are evaluated in terms of overhead response time and different payload sizes. Results showed that the hardware platform used as well as the message size, and the network parameters (latency, packet loss and jitter) have a significant impact on the performance differences between the brokers. All results, software tools and code are fully reproducible and free and open source.
We present a novel counterfactual framework for both Zero-Shot Learning (ZSL) and Open-Set Recognition (OSR), whose common challenge is generalizing to the unseen-classes by only training on the seen-classes. Our idea stems from the observation that the generated samples for unseen-classes are often out of the true distribution, which causes severe recognition rate imbalance between the seen-class (high) and unseen-class (low). We show that the key reason is that the generation is not Counterfactual Faithful, and thus we propose a faithful one, whose generation is from the sample-specific counterfactual question: What would the sample look like, if we set its class attribute to a certain class, while keeping its sample attribute unchanged? Thanks to the faithfulness, we can apply the Consistency Rule to perform unseen/seen binary classification, by asking: Would its counterfactual still look like itself? If ``yes'', the sample is from a certain class, and ``no'' otherwise. Through extensive experiments on ZSL and OSR, we demonstrate that our framework effectively mitigates the seen/unseen imbalance and hence significantly improves the overall performance. Note that this framework is orthogonal to existing methods, thus, it can serve as a new baseline to evaluate how ZSL/OSR models generalize. Codes are available at //github.com/yue-zhongqi/gcm-cf.
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