Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local characteristics and extracting intrinsic modes from data. Unfortunately, most models fail to capture the implied volatilities that contain significant information. To enhance the forecasting of current, rapidly evolving, and volatile time series, we propose a novel decomposition-ensemble paradigm, the VMD-LSTM-GARCH model. The Variational Mode Decomposition algorithm is employed to decompose the time series into K sub-modes. Subsequently, the GARCH model extracts the volatility information from these sub-modes, which serve as the input for the LSTM. The numerical and volatility information of each sub-mode is utilized to train a Long Short-Term Memory network. This network predicts the sub-mode, and then we aggregate the predictions from all sub-modes to produce the output. By integrating econometric and artificial intelligence methods, and taking into account both the numerical and volatility information of the time series, our proposed model demonstrates superior performance in time series forecasting, as evidenced by the significant decrease in MSE, RMSE, and MAPE in our comparative experimental results.
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Transformer-based models have greatly pushed the boundaries of time series forecasting recently. Existing methods typically encode time series data into $\textit{patches}$ using one or a fixed set of patch lengths. This, however, could result in a lack of ability to capture the variety of intricate temporal dependencies present in real-world multi-periodic time series. In this paper, we propose MultiResFormer, which dynamically models temporal variations by adaptively choosing optimal patch lengths. Concretely, at the beginning of each layer, time series data is encoded into several parallel branches, each using a detected periodicity, before going through the transformer encoder block. We conduct extensive evaluations on long- and short-term forecasting datasets comparing MultiResFormer with state-of-the-art baselines. MultiResFormer outperforms patch-based Transformer baselines on long-term forecasting tasks and also consistently outperforms CNN baselines by a large margin, while using much fewer parameters than these baselines.
Measuring distance or similarity between time-series data is a fundamental aspect of many applications including classification, clustering, and ensembling/alignment. Existing measures may fail to capture similarities among local trends (shapes) and may even produce misleading results. Our goal is to develop a measure that looks for similar trends occurring around similar times and is easily interpretable for researchers in applied domains. This is particularly useful for applications where time-series have a sequence of meaningful local trends that are ordered, such as in epidemics (a surge to an increase to a peak to a decrease). We propose a novel measure, DTW+S, which creates an interpretable "closeness-preserving" matrix representation of the time-series, where each column represents local trends, and then it applies Dynamic Time Warping to compute distances between these matrices. We present a theoretical analysis that supports the choice of this representation. We demonstrate the utility of DTW+S in several tasks. For the clustering of epidemic curves, we show that DTW+S is the only measure able to produce good clustering compared to the baselines. For ensemble building, we propose a combination of DTW+S and barycenter averaging that results in the best preservation of characteristics of the underlying trajectories. We also demonstrate that our approach results in better classification compared to Dynamic Time Warping for a class of datasets, particularly when local trends rather than scale play a decisive role.
We propose a robust transceiver design for a covert integrated sensing and communications (ISAC) system with imperfect channel state information (CSI). Considering both bounded and probabilistic CSI error models, we formulate worst-case and outage-constrained robust optimization problems of joint trasceiver beamforming and radar waveform design to balance the radar performance of multiple targets while ensuring communications performance and covertness of the system. The optimization problems are challenging due to the non-convexity arising from the semi-infinite constraints (SICs) and the coupled transceiver variables. In an effort to tackle the former difficulty, S-procedure and Bernstein-type inequality are introduced for converting the SICs into finite convex linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and second-order cone constraints. A robust alternating optimization framework referred to alternating double-checking is developed for decoupling the transceiver design problem into feasibility-checking transmitter- and receiver-side subproblems, transforming the rank-one constraints into a set of LMIs, and verifying the feasibility of beamforming by invoking the matrix-lifting scheme. Numerical results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm in improving the performance of covert ISAC systems.
Time series forecasting represents a significant and challenging task across various fields. Recently, methods based on mode decomposition have dominated the forecasting of complex time series because of the advantages of capturing local characteristics and extracting intrinsic modes from data. Unfortunately, most models fail to capture the implied volatilities that contain significant information. To enhance the prediction of contemporary diverse and complex time series, we propose a novel time series forecasting paradigm that integrates decomposition with the capability to capture the underlying fluctuation information of the series. In our methodology, we implement the Variational Mode Decomposition algorithm to decompose the time series into K distinct sub-modes. Following this decomposition, we apply the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to extract the volatility information in these sub-modes. Subsequently, both the numerical data and the volatility information for each sub-mode are harnessed to train a neural network. This network is adept at predicting the information of the sub-modes, and we aggregate the predictions of all sub-modes to generate the final output. By integrating econometric and artificial intelligence methods, and taking into account both the numerical and volatility information of the time series, our proposed framework demonstrates superior performance in time series forecasting, as evidenced by the significant decrease in MSE, RMSE, and MAPE in our comparative experimental results.
Most existing neural-based text-to-speech methods rely on extensive datasets and face challenges under low-resource condition. In this paper, we introduce a novel semi-supervised text-to-speech synthesis model that learns from both paired and unpaired data to address this challenge. The key component of the proposed model is a dynamic quantized representation module, which is integrated into a sequential autoencoder. When given paired data, the module incorporates a trainable codebook that learns quantized representations under the supervision of the paired data. However, due to the limited paired data in low-resource scenario, these paired data are difficult to cover all phonemes. Then unpaired data is fed to expand the dynamic codebook by adding quantized representation vectors that are sufficiently distant from the existing ones during training. Experiments show that with less than 120 minutes of paired data, the proposed method outperforms existing methods in both subjective and objective metrics.
Self-supervised training methods for transformers have demonstrated remarkable performance across various domains. Previous transformer-based models, such as masked autoencoders (MAE), typically utilize a single normalization layer for both the [CLS] symbol and the tokens. We propose in this paper a simple modification that employs separate normalization layers for the tokens and the [CLS] symbol to better capture their distinct characteristics and enhance downstream task performance. Our method aims to alleviate the potential negative effects of using the same normalization statistics for both token types, which may not be optimally aligned with their individual roles. We empirically show that by utilizing a separate normalization layer, the [CLS] embeddings can better encode the global contextual information and are distributed more uniformly in its anisotropic space. When replacing the conventional normalization layer with the two separate layers, we observe an average 2.7% performance improvement over the image, natural language, and graph domains.
Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) have been proven capable of synthesizing high-quality images with remarkable diversity when trained on large amounts of data. Typical diffusion models and modern large-scale conditional generative models like text-to-image generative models are vulnerable to overfitting when fine-tuned on extremely limited data. Existing works have explored subject-driven generation using a reference set containing a few images. However, few prior works explore DDPM-based domain-driven generation, which aims to learn the common features of target domains while maintaining diversity. This paper proposes a novel DomainStudio approach to adapt DDPMs pre-trained on large-scale source datasets to target domains using limited data. It is designed to keep the diversity of subjects provided by source domains and get high-quality and diverse adapted samples in target domains. We propose to keep the relative distances between adapted samples to achieve considerable generation diversity. In addition, we further enhance the learning of high-frequency details for better generation quality. Our approach is compatible with both unconditional and conditional diffusion models. This work makes the first attempt to realize unconditional few-shot image generation with diffusion models, achieving better quality and greater diversity than current state-of-the-art GAN-based approaches. Moreover, this work also significantly relieves overfitting for conditional generation and realizes high-quality domain-driven generation, further expanding the applicable scenarios of modern large-scale text-to-image models.
Robots are increasingly used in tomato greenhouses to automate labour-intensive tasks such as selective harvesting and de-leafing. To perform these tasks, robots must be able to accurately and efficiently perceive the plant nodes that need to be cut, despite the high levels of occlusion from other plant parts. We formulate this problem as a local next-best-view (NBV) planning task where the robot has to plan an efficient set of camera viewpoints to overcome occlusion and improve the quality of perception. Our formulation focuses on quickly improving the perception accuracy of a single target node to maximise its chances of being cut. Previous methods of NBV planning mostly focused on global view planning and used random sampling of candidate viewpoints for exploration, which could suffer from high computational costs, ineffective view selection due to poor candidates, or non-smooth trajectories due to inefficient sampling. We propose a gradient-based NBV planner using differential ray sampling, which directly estimates the local gradient direction for viewpoint planning to overcome occlusion and improve perception. Through simulation experiments, we showed that our planner can handle occlusions and improve the 3D reconstruction and position estimation of nodes equally well as a sampling-based NBV planner, while taking ten times less computation and generating 28% more efficient trajectories.
Spatio-temporal representation learning is critical for video self-supervised representation. Recent approaches mainly use contrastive learning and pretext tasks. However, these approaches learn representation by discriminating sampled instances via feature similarity in the latent space while ignoring the intermediate state of the learned representations, which limits the overall performance. In this work, taking into account the degree of similarity of sampled instances as the intermediate state, we propose a novel pretext task - spatio-temporal overlap rate (STOR) prediction. It stems from the observation that humans are capable of discriminating the overlap rates of videos in space and time. This task encourages the model to discriminate the STOR of two generated samples to learn the representations. Moreover, we employ a joint optimization combining pretext tasks with contrastive learning to further enhance the spatio-temporal representation learning. We also study the mutual influence of each component in the proposed scheme. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed STOR task can favor both contrastive learning and pretext tasks. The joint optimization scheme can significantly improve the spatio-temporal representation in video understanding. The code is available at //github.com/Katou2/CSTP.
High spectral dimensionality and the shortage of annotations make hyperspectral image (HSI) classification a challenging problem. Recent studies suggest that convolutional neural networks can learn discriminative spatial features, which play a paramount role in HSI interpretation. However, most of these methods ignore the distinctive spectral-spatial characteristic of hyperspectral data. In addition, a large amount of unlabeled data remains an unexploited gold mine for efficient data use. Therefore, we proposed an integration of generative adversarial networks (GANs) and probabilistic graphical models for HSI classification. Specifically, we used a spectral-spatial generator and a discriminator to identify land cover categories of hyperspectral cubes. Moreover, to take advantage of a large amount of unlabeled data, we adopted a conditional random field to refine the preliminary classification results generated by GANs. Experimental results obtained using two commonly studied datasets demonstrate that the proposed framework achieved encouraging classification accuracy using a small number of data for training.
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