Many observational studies and clinical trials collect various secondary outcomes that may be highly correlated with the primary endpoint. These secondary outcomes are often analyzed in secondary analyses separately from the main data analysis. However, these secondary outcomes can be used to improve the estimation precision in the main analysis. We propose a method called Multiple Information Borrowing (MinBo) that borrows information from secondary data (containing secondary outcomes and covariates) to improve the efficiency of the main analysis. The proposed method is robust against model misspecification of the secondary data. Both theoretical and case studies demonstrate that MinBo outperforms existing methods in terms of efficiency gain. We apply MinBo to data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study to assess risk factors for hypertension.
A symmetric matrix is called a Laplacian if it has nonpositive off-diagonal entries and zero row sums. Since the seminal work of Spielman and Teng (2004) on solving Laplacian linear systems in nearly linear time, several algorithms have been designed for the task. Yet, the work of Kyng and Sachdeva (2016) remains the simplest and most practical sequential solver. They presented a solver purely based on random sampling and without graph-theoretic constructions such as low-stretch trees and sparsifiers. In this work, we extend the result of Kyng and Sachdeva to a simple parallel Laplacian solver with $O(m \log^3 n \log\log n)$ or $O((m + n\log^5 n)\log n \log\log n)$ work and $O(\log^2 n \log\log n)$ depth using the ideas of block Cholesky factorization from Kyng et al. (2016). Compared to the best known parallel Laplacian solvers that achieve polylogarithmic depth due to Lee et al. (2015), our solver achieves both better depth and, for dense graphs, better work.
We introduce an extended discontinuous Galerkin discretization of hyperbolic-parabolic problems on multidimensional semi-infinite domains. Building on previous work on the one-dimensional case, we split the strip-shaped computational domain into a bounded region, discretized by means of discontinuous finite elements using Legendre basis functions, and an unbounded subdomain, where scaled Laguerre functions are used as a basis. Numerical fluxes at the interface allow for a seamless coupling of the two regions. The resulting coupling strategy is shown to produce accurate numerical solutions in tests on both linear and non-linear scalar and vectorial model problems. In addition, an efficient absorbing layer can be simulated in the semi-infinite part of the domain in order to damp outgoing signals with negligible spurious reflections at the interface. By tuning the scaling parameter of the Laguerre basis functions, the extended DG scheme simulates transient dynamics over large spatial scales with a substantial reduction in computational cost at a given accuracy level compared to standard single-domain discontinuous finite element techniques.
This paper focuses on the study of the order of power series that are linear combinations of a given finite set of power series. The order of a formal power series, known as $\textrm{ord}(f)$, is defined as the minimum exponent of $x$ that has a non-zero coefficient in $f(x)$. Our first result is that the order of the Wronskian of these power series is equivalent up to a polynomial factor, to the maximum order which occurs in the linear combination of these power series. This implies that the Wronskian approach used in (Kayal and Saha, TOCT'2012) to upper bound the order of sum of square roots is optimal up to a polynomial blowup. We also demonstrate similar upper bounds, similar to those of (Kayal and Saha, TOCT'2012), for the order of power series in a variety of other scenarios. We also solve a special case of the inequality testing problem outlined in (Etessami et al., TOCT'2014). In the second part of the paper, we study the equality variant of the sum of square roots problem, which is decidable in polynomial time due to (Bl\"omer, FOCS'1991). We investigate a natural generalization of this problem when the input integers are given as straight line programs. Under the assumption of the Generalized Riemann Hypothesis (GRH), we show that this problem can be reduced to the so-called ``one dimensional'' variant. We identify the key mathematical challenges for solving this ``one dimensional'' variant.
Quasi-periodic responses composed of multiple base frequencies widely exist in science and engineering problems. The multiple harmonic balance (MHB) method is one of the most commonly used approaches for such problems. However, it is limited by low-order estimations due to complex symbolic operations in practical uses. Many variants have been developed to improve the MHB method, among which the time domain MHB-like methods are regarded as crucial improvements because of their high efficiency and simple derivation. But there is still one main drawback remaining to be addressed. The time domain MHB-like methods negatively suffer from non-physical solutions, which have been shown to be caused by aliasing (mixtures of the high-order into the low-order harmonics). Inspired by the collocation-based harmonic balancing framework recently established by our group, we herein propose a reconstruction multiple harmonic balance (RMHB) method to reconstruct the conventional MHB method using discrete time domain collocations. Our study shows that the relation between the MHB and time domain MHB-like methods is determined by an aliasing matrix, which is non-zero when aliasing occurs. On this basis, a conditional equivalence is established to form the RMHB method. Three numerical examples demonstrate that this new method is more robust and efficient than the state-of-the-art methods.
Mendelian randomization (MR) is a widely-used method to estimate the causal relationship between a risk factor and disease. A fundamental part of any MR analysis is to choose appropriate genetic variants as instrumental variables. Genome-wide association studies often reveal that hundreds of genetic variants may be robustly associated with a risk factor, but in some situations investigators may have greater confidence in the instrument validity of only a smaller subset of variants. Nevertheless, the use of additional instruments may be optimal from the perspective of mean squared error even if they are slightly invalid; a small bias in estimation may be a price worth paying for a larger reduction in variance. For this purpose, we consider a method for "focused" instrument selection whereby genetic variants are selected to minimise the estimated asymptotic mean squared error of causal effect estimates. In a setting of many weak and locally invalid instruments, we propose a novel strategy to construct confidence intervals for post-selection focused estimators that guards against the worst case loss in asymptotic coverage. In empirical applications to: (i) validate lipid drug targets; and (ii) investigate vitamin D effects on a wide range of outcomes, our findings suggest that the optimal selection of instruments does not involve only a small number of biologically-justified instruments, but also many potentially invalid instruments.
Physics simulations are a computational bottleneck in computer-aided design (CAD) optimization processes. Hence, in order to make accurate (computationally expensive) simulations feasible for use in design optimization, one requires either an optimization framework that is highly sample-efficient or fast data-driven proxies (surrogate models) for long running simulations. In this work, we leverage recent advances in optimization and artificial intelligence (AI) to address both of these potential solutions, in the context of designing an optimal unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV). We first investigate and compare the sample efficiency and convergence behavior of different optimization techniques with a standard computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver in the optimization loop. We then develop a deep neural network (DNN) based surrogate model to approximate drag forces that would otherwise be computed via direct numerical simulation with the CFD solver. The surrogate model is in turn used in the optimization loop of the hull design. Our study finds that the Bayesian Optimization Lower Condition Bound (BO LCB) algorithm is the most sample-efficient optimization framework and has the best convergence behavior of those considered. Subsequently, we show that our DNN-based surrogate model predicts drag force on test data in tight agreement with CFD simulations, with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.85%. Combining these results, we demonstrate a two-orders-of-magnitude speedup (with comparable accuracy) for the design optimization process when the surrogate model is used. To our knowledge, this is the first study applying Bayesian optimization and DNN-based surrogate modeling to the problem of UUV design optimization, and we share our developments as open-source software.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
As soon as abstract mathematical computations were adapted to computation on digital computers, the problem of efficient representation, manipulation, and communication of the numerical values in those computations arose. Strongly related to the problem of numerical representation is the problem of quantization: in what manner should a set of continuous real-valued numbers be distributed over a fixed discrete set of numbers to minimize the number of bits required and also to maximize the accuracy of the attendant computations? This perennial problem of quantization is particularly relevant whenever memory and/or computational resources are severely restricted, and it has come to the forefront in recent years due to the remarkable performance of Neural Network models in computer vision, natural language processing, and related areas. Moving from floating-point representations to low-precision fixed integer values represented in four bits or less holds the potential to reduce the memory footprint and latency by a factor of 16x; and, in fact, reductions of 4x to 8x are often realized in practice in these applications. Thus, it is not surprising that quantization has emerged recently as an important and very active sub-area of research in the efficient implementation of computations associated with Neural Networks. In this article, we survey approaches to the problem of quantizing the numerical values in deep Neural Network computations, covering the advantages/disadvantages of current methods. With this survey and its organization, we hope to have presented a useful snapshot of the current research in quantization for Neural Networks and to have given an intelligent organization to ease the evaluation of future research in this area.
This paper focuses on the expected difference in borrower's repayment when there is a change in the lender's credit decisions. Classical estimators overlook the confounding effects and hence the estimation error can be magnificent. As such, we propose another approach to construct the estimators such that the error can be greatly reduced. The proposed estimators are shown to be unbiased, consistent, and robust through a combination of theoretical analysis and numerical testing. Moreover, we compare the power of estimating the causal quantities between the classical estimators and the proposed estimators. The comparison is tested across a wide range of models, including linear regression models, tree-based models, and neural network-based models, under different simulated datasets that exhibit different levels of causality, different degrees of nonlinearity, and different distributional properties. Most importantly, we apply our approaches to a large observational dataset provided by a global technology firm that operates in both the e-commerce and the lending business. We find that the relative reduction of estimation error is strikingly substantial if the causal effects are accounted for correctly.
Since hardware resources are limited, the objective of training deep learning models is typically to maximize accuracy subject to the time and memory constraints of training and inference. We study the impact of model size in this setting, focusing on Transformer models for NLP tasks that are limited by compute: self-supervised pretraining and high-resource machine translation. We first show that even though smaller Transformer models execute faster per iteration, wider and deeper models converge in significantly fewer steps. Moreover, this acceleration in convergence typically outpaces the additional computational overhead of using larger models. Therefore, the most compute-efficient training strategy is to counterintuitively train extremely large models but stop after a small number of iterations. This leads to an apparent trade-off between the training efficiency of large Transformer models and the inference efficiency of small Transformer models. However, we show that large models are more robust to compression techniques such as quantization and pruning than small models. Consequently, one can get the best of both worlds: heavily compressed, large models achieve higher accuracy than lightly compressed, small models.