Failure probability estimation problem is an crucial task in engineering. In this work we consider this problem in the situation that the underlying computer models are extremely expensive, which often arises in the practice, and in this setting, reducing the calls of computer model is of essential importance. We formulate the problem of estimating the failure probability with expensive computer models as an sequential experimental design for the limit state (i.e., the failure boundary) and propose a series of efficient adaptive design criteria to solve the design of experiment (DOE). In particular, the proposed method employs the deep neural network (DNN) as the surrogate of limit state function for efficiently reducing the calls of expensive computer experiment. A map from the Gaussian distribution to the posterior approximation of the limit state is learned by the normalizing flows for the ease of experimental design. Three normalizing-flows-based design criteria are proposed in this work for deciding the design locations based on the different assumption of generalization error. The accuracy and performance of the proposed method is demonstrated by both theory and practical examples.
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Without writing a single line of code by a human, an example Monte Carlo simulation based application for stochastic dependence modeling with copulas is developed using a state-of-the-art large language model (LLM) fine-tuned for conversations. This includes interaction with ChatGPT in natural language and using mathematical formalism, which, under careful supervision by a human-expert, led to producing a working code in MATLAB, Python and R for sampling from a given copula model, evaluation of the model's density, performing maximum likelihood estimation, optimizing the code for parallel computing for CPUs as well as for GPUs, and visualization of the computed results. In contrast to other emerging studies that assess the accuracy of LLMs like ChatGPT on tasks from a selected area, this work rather investigates ways how to achieve a successful solution of a standard statistical task in a collaboration of a human-expert and artificial intelligence (AI). Particularly, through careful prompt engineering, we separate successful solutions generated by ChatGPT from unsuccessful ones, resulting in a comprehensive list of related pros and cons. It is demonstrated that if the typical pitfalls are avoided, we can substantially benefit from collaborating with an AI partner. For example, we show that if ChatGPT is not able to provide a correct solution due to a lack of or incorrect knowledge, the human-expert can feed it with the correct knowledge, e.g., in the form of mathematical theorems and formulas, and make it to apply the gained knowledge in order to provide a solution that is correct. Such ability presents an attractive opportunity to achieve a programmed solution even for users with rather limited knowledge of programming techniques.
Continuous-time measurements are instrumental for a multitude of tasks in quantum engineering and quantum control, including the estimation of dynamical parameters of open quantum systems monitored through the environment. However, such measurements do not extract the maximum amount of information available in the output state, so finding alternative optimal measurement strategies is a major open problem. In this paper we solve this problem in the setting of discrete-time input-output quantum Markov chains. We present an efficient algorithm for optimal estimation of one-dimensional dynamical parameters which consists of an iterative procedure for updating a `measurement filter' operator and determining successive measurement bases for the output units. A key ingredient of the scheme is the use of a coherent quantum absorber as a way to post-process the output after the interaction with the system. This is designed adaptively such that the joint system and absorber stationary state is pure at a reference parameter value. The scheme offers an exciting prospect for optimal continuous-time adaptive measurements, but more work is needed to find realistic practical implementations.
Data-driven offline model-based optimization (MBO) is an established practical approach to black-box computational design problems for which the true objective function is unknown and expensive to query. However, the standard approach which optimizes designs against a learned proxy model of the ground truth objective can suffer from distributional shift. Specifically, in high-dimensional design spaces where valid designs lie on a narrow manifold, the standard approach is susceptible to producing out-of-distribution, invalid designs that "fool" the learned proxy model into outputting a high value. Using an ensemble rather than a single model as the learned proxy can help mitigate distribution shift, but naive formulations for combining gradient information from the ensemble, such as minimum or mean gradient, are still suboptimal and often hampered by non-convergent behavior. In this work, we explore alternate approaches for combining gradient information from the ensemble that are robust to distribution shift without compromising optimality of the produced designs. More specifically, we explore two functions, formulated as convex optimization problems, for combining gradient information: multiple gradient descent algorithm (MGDA) and conflict-averse gradient descent (CAGrad). We evaluate these algorithms on a diverse set of five computational design tasks. We compare performance of ensemble MBO with MGDA and ensemble MBO with CAGrad with three naive baseline algorithms: (a) standard single-model MBO, (b) ensemble MBO with mean gradient, and (c) ensemble MBO with minimum gradient. Our results suggest that MGDA and CAGrad strike a desirable balance between conservatism and optimality and can help robustify data-driven offline MBO without compromising optimality of designs.
We present a novel technique to estimate the 6D pose of objects from single images where the 3D geometry of the object is only given approximately and not as a precise 3D model. To achieve this, we employ a dense 2D-to-3D correspondence predictor that regresses 3D model coordinates for every pixel. In addition to the 3D coordinates, our model also estimates the pixel-wise coordinate error to discard correspondences that are likely wrong. This allows us to generate multiple 6D pose hypotheses of the object, which we then refine iteratively using a highly efficient region-based approach. We also introduce a novel pixel-wise posterior formulation by which we can estimate the probability for each hypothesis and select the most likely one. As we show in experiments, our approach is capable of dealing with extreme visual conditions including overexposure, high contrast, or low signal-to-noise ratio. This makes it a powerful technique for the particularly challenging task of estimating the pose of tumbling satellites for in-orbit robotic applications. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the SPEED+ dataset and has won the SPEC2021 post-mortem competition.
Deep generative modelling is a class of techniques that train deep neural networks to model the distribution of training samples. Research has fragmented into various interconnected approaches, each of which making trade-offs including run-time, diversity, and architectural restrictions. In particular, this compendium covers energy-based models, variational autoencoders, generative adversarial networks, autoregressive models, normalizing flows, in addition to numerous hybrid approaches. These techniques are drawn under a single cohesive framework, comparing and contrasting to explain the premises behind each, while reviewing current state-of-the-art advances and implementations.
Deep neural networks have achieved remarkable success in computer vision tasks. Existing neural networks mainly operate in the spatial domain with fixed input sizes. For practical applications, images are usually large and have to be downsampled to the predetermined input size of neural networks. Even though the downsampling operations reduce computation and the required communication bandwidth, it removes both redundant and salient information obliviously, which results in accuracy degradation. Inspired by digital signal processing theories, we analyze the spectral bias from the frequency perspective and propose a learning-based frequency selection method to identify the trivial frequency components which can be removed without accuracy loss. The proposed method of learning in the frequency domain leverages identical structures of the well-known neural networks, such as ResNet-50, MobileNetV2, and Mask R-CNN, while accepting the frequency-domain information as the input. Experiment results show that learning in the frequency domain with static channel selection can achieve higher accuracy than the conventional spatial downsampling approach and meanwhile further reduce the input data size. Specifically for ImageNet classification with the same input size, the proposed method achieves 1.41% and 0.66% top-1 accuracy improvements on ResNet-50 and MobileNetV2, respectively. Even with half input size, the proposed method still improves the top-1 accuracy on ResNet-50 by 1%. In addition, we observe a 0.8% average precision improvement on Mask R-CNN for instance segmentation on the COCO dataset.
Multivariate time series forecasting is extensively studied throughout the years with ubiquitous applications in areas such as finance, traffic, environment, etc. Still, concerns have been raised on traditional methods for incapable of modeling complex patterns or dependencies lying in real word data. To address such concerns, various deep learning models, mainly Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) based methods, are proposed. Nevertheless, capturing extremely long-term patterns while effectively incorporating information from other variables remains a challenge for time-series forecasting. Furthermore, lack-of-explainability remains one serious drawback for deep neural network models. Inspired by Memory Network proposed for solving the question-answering task, we propose a deep learning based model named Memory Time-series network (MTNet) for time series forecasting. MTNet consists of a large memory component, three separate encoders, and an autoregressive component to train jointly. Additionally, the attention mechanism designed enable MTNet to be highly interpretable. We can easily tell which part of the historic data is referenced the most.
We propose a new method for event extraction (EE) task based on an imitation learning framework, specifically, inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) via generative adversarial network (GAN). The GAN estimates proper rewards according to the difference between the actions committed by the expert (or ground truth) and the agent among complicated states in the environment. EE task benefits from these dynamic rewards because instances and labels yield to various extents of difficulty and the gains are expected to be diverse -- e.g., an ambiguous but correctly detected trigger or argument should receive high gains -- while the traditional RL models usually neglect such differences and pay equal attention on all instances. Moreover, our experiments also demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods, without explicit feature engineering.
Object detection typically assumes that training and test data are drawn from an identical distribution, which, however, does not always hold in practice. Such a distribution mismatch will lead to a significant performance drop. In this work, we aim to improve the cross-domain robustness of object detection. We tackle the domain shift on two levels: 1) the image-level shift, such as image style, illumination, etc, and 2) the instance-level shift, such as object appearance, size, etc. We build our approach based on the recent state-of-the-art Faster R-CNN model, and design two domain adaptation components, on image level and instance level, to reduce the domain discrepancy. The two domain adaptation components are based on H-divergence theory, and are implemented by learning a domain classifier in adversarial training manner. The domain classifiers on different levels are further reinforced with a consistency regularization to learn a domain-invariant region proposal network (RPN) in the Faster R-CNN model. We evaluate our newly proposed approach using multiple datasets including Cityscapes, KITTI, SIM10K, etc. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach for robust object detection in various domain shift scenarios.
Sufficient training data is normally required to train deeply learned models. However, the number of pedestrian images per ID in person re-identification (re-ID) datasets is usually limited, since manually annotations are required for multiple camera views. To produce more data for training deeply learned models, generative adversarial network (GAN) can be leveraged to generate samples for person re-ID. However, the samples generated by vanilla GAN usually do not have labels. So in this paper, we propose a virtual label called Multi-pseudo Regularized Label (MpRL) and assign it to the generated images. With MpRL, the generated samples will be used as supplementary of real training data to train a deep model in a semi-supervised learning fashion. Considering data bias between generated and real samples, MpRL utilizes different contributions from predefined training classes. The contribution-based virtual labels are automatically assigned to generated samples to reduce ambiguous prediction in training. Meanwhile, MpRL only relies on predefined training classes without using extra classes. Furthermore, to reduce over-fitting, a regularized manner is applied to MpRL to regularize the learning process. To verify the effectiveness of MpRL, two state-of-the-art convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are adopted in our experiments. Experiments demonstrate that by assigning MpRL to generated samples, we can further improve the person re-ID performance on three datasets i.e., Market-1501, DukeMTMCreID, and CUHK03. The proposed method obtains +6.29%, +6.30% and +5.58% improvements in rank-1 accuracy over a strong CNN baseline respectively, and outperforms the state-of-the- art methods.
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