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Common tasks encountered in epidemiology, including disease incidence estimation and causal inference, rely on predictive modeling. Constructing a predictive model can be thought of as learning a prediction function, i.e., a function that takes as input covariate data and outputs a predicted value. Many strategies for learning these functions from data are available, from parametric regressions to machine learning algorithms. It can be challenging to choose an approach, as it is impossible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular dataset and prediction task at hand. The super learner (SL) is an algorithm that alleviates concerns over selecting the one "right" strategy while providing the freedom to consider many of them, such as those recommended by collaborators, used in related research, or specified by subject-matter experts. It is an entirely pre-specified and data-adaptive strategy for predictive modeling. To ensure the SL is well-specified for learning the prediction function, the analyst does need to make a few important choices. In this Education Corner article, we provide step-by-step guidelines for making these choices, walking the reader through each of them and providing intuition along the way. In doing so, we aim to empower the analyst to tailor the SL specification to their prediction task, thereby ensuring their SL performs as well as possible. A flowchart provides a concise, easy-to-follow summary of key suggestions and heuristics, based on our accumulated experience, and guided by theory.

We employ kernel-based approaches that use samples from a probability distribution to approximate a Kolmogorov operator on a manifold. The self-tuning variable-bandwidth kernel method [Berry & Harlim, Appl. Comput. Harmon. Anal., 40(1):68--96, 2016] computes a large, sparse matrix that approximates the differential operator. Here, we use the eigendecomposition of the discretization to (i) invert the operator, solving a differential equation, and (ii) represent gradient vector fields on the manifold. These methods only require samples from the underlying distribution and, therefore, can be applied in high dimensions or on geometrically complex manifolds when spatial discretizations are not available. We also employ an efficient $k$-$d$ tree algorithm to compute the sparse kernel matrix, which is a computational bottleneck.

The naive importance sampling (IS) estimator generally does not work well in examples involving simultaneous inference on several targets, as the importance weights can take arbitrarily large values, making the estimator highly unstable. In such situations, alternative multiple IS estimators involving samples from multiple proposal distributions are preferred. Just like the naive IS, the success of these multiple IS estimators crucially depends on the choice of the proposal distributions. The selection of these proposal distributions is the focus of this article. We propose three methods: (i) a geometric space filling approach, (ii) a minimax variance approach, and (iii) a maximum entropy approach. The first two methods are applicable to any IS estimator, whereas the third approach is described in the context of Doss's (2010) two-stage IS estimator. For the first method, we propose a suitable measure of 'closeness' based on the symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence, while the second and third approaches use estimates of asymptotic variances of Doss's (2010) IS estimator and Geyer's (1994) reverse logistic regression estimator, respectively. Thus, when samples from the proposal distributions are obtained by running Markov chains, we provide consistent spectral variance estimators for these asymptotic variances. The proposed methods for selecting proposal densities are illustrated using various detailed examples.

Multihop relaying is a potential technique to mitigate channel impairments in optical wireless communications (OWC). In this paper, multiple fixed-gain amplify-and-forward (AF) relays are employed to enhance the OWC performance under the combined effect of atmospheric turbulence, pointing errors, and fog. We consider a long-range OWC link by modeling the atmospheric turbulence by the Fisher-Snedecor ${\cal{F}}$ distribution, pointing errors by the generalized non-zero boresight model, and random path loss due to fog. We also consider a short-range OWC system by ignoring the impact of atmospheric turbulence. We derive novel upper bounds on the probability density function (PDF) and cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for both short and long-range multihop OWC systems by developing exact statistical results for a single-hop OWC system under the combined effect of ${\cal{F}}$-turbulence channels, non-zero boresight pointing errors, and fog-induced fading. Based on these expressions, we present analytical expressions of outage probability (OP) and average bit-error-rate (ABER) performance for the considered OWC systems involving single-variate Fox's H and Meijer's G functions. Moreover, asymptotic expressions of the outage probability in high SNR region are developed using simpler Gamma functions to provide insights on the effect of channel and system parameters. The derived analytical expressions are validated through Monte-Carlo simulations, and the scaling of the OWC performance with the number of relay nodes is demonstrated with a comparison to the single-hop transmission.

Kernel smooth is the most fundamental technique for data density and regression estimation. However, time-consuming is the biggest obstacle for the application that the direct evaluation of kernel smooth for $N$ samples needs ${O}\left( {{N}^{2}} \right)$ operations. People have developed fast smooth algorithms using the idea of binning with FFT. Unfortunately, the accuracy is not controllable, and the implementation for multivariable and its bandwidth selection for the fast method is not available. Hence, we introduce a new MATLAB toolbox for fast multivariate kernel regression with the idea of non-uniform FFT (NUFFT), which implemented the algorithm for $M$ gridding points with ${O}\left( N+M\log M \right)$ complexity and accuracy controllability. The bandwidth selection problem utilizes the Fast Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the degree of freedom (DF), saving enormous cross-validation time even better when data share the same grid space for multiple regression. Up to now, this is the first toolbox for fast-binning high-dimensional kernel regression. Moreover, the estimation for local polynomial regression, the conditional variance for the heteroscedastic model, and the complex-valued datasets are also implemented in this toolbox. The performance is demonstrated with simulations and an application on the quantitive EEG.

This paper studies how well generative adversarial networks (GANs) learn probability distributions from finite samples. Our main results establish the convergence rates of GANs under a collection of integral probability metrics defined through H\"older classes, including the Wasserstein distance as a special case. We also show that GANs are able to adaptively learn data distributions with low-dimensional structures or have H\"older densities, when the network architectures are chosen properly. In particular, for distributions concentrated around a low-dimensional set, we show that the learning rates of GANs do not depend on the high ambient dimension, but on the lower intrinsic dimension. Our analysis is based on a new oracle inequality decomposing the estimation error into the generator and discriminator approximation error and the statistical error, which may be of independent interest.

Holonomic functions play an essential role in Computer Algebra since they allow the application of many symbolic algorithms. Among all algorithmic attempts to find formulas for power series, the holonomic property remains the most important requirement to be satisfied by the function under consideration. The targeted functions mainly summarize that of meromorphic functions. However, expressions like $\tan(z)$, $z/(\exp(z)-1)$, $\sec(z)$, etc., particularly, reciprocals, quotients and compositions of holonomic functions, are generally not holonomic. Therefore their power series are inaccessible by the holonomic framework. From the mathematical dictionaries, one can observe that most of the known closed-form formulas of non-holonomic power series involve another sequence whose evaluation depends on some finite summations. In the case of $\tan(z)$ and $\sec(z)$ the corresponding sequences are the Bernoulli and Euler numbers, respectively. Thus providing a symbolic approach that yields complete representations when linear summations for power series coefficients of non-holonomic functions appear, might be seen as a step forward towards the representation of non-holonomic power series. By adapting the method of ansatz with undetermined coefficients, we build an algorithm that computes least-order quadratic differential equations with polynomial coefficients for a large class of non-holonomic functions. A differential equation resulting from this procedure is converted into a recurrence equation by applying the Cauchy product formula and rewriting powers into polynomials and derivatives into shifts. Finally, using enough initial values we are able to give normal form representations to characterize several non-holonomic power series and prove non-trivial identities. We discuss this algorithm and its implementation for Maple 2022.

We recall some of the history of the information-theoretic approach to deriving core results in probability theory and indicate parts of the recent resurgence of interest in this area with current progress along several interesting directions. Then we give a new information-theoretic proof of a finite version of de Finetti's classical representation theorem for finite-valued random variables. We derive an upper bound on the relative entropy between the distribution of the first $k$ in a sequence of $n$ exchangeable random variables, and an appropriate mixture over product distributions. The mixing measure is characterised as the law of the empirical measure of the original sequence, and de Finetti's result is recovered as a corollary. The proof is nicely motivated by the Gibbs conditioning principle in connection with statistical mechanics, and it follows along an appealing sequence of steps. The technical estimates required for these steps are obtained via the use of a collection of combinatorial tools known within information theory as `the method of types.'

The focus of Part I of this monograph has been on both the fundamental properties, graph topologies, and spectral representations of graphs. Part II embarks on these concepts to address the algorithmic and practical issues centered round data/signal processing on graphs, that is, the focus is on the analysis and estimation of both deterministic and random data on graphs. The fundamental ideas related to graph signals are introduced through a simple and intuitive, yet illustrative and general enough case study of multisensor temperature field estimation. The concept of systems on graph is defined using graph signal shift operators, which generalize the corresponding principles from traditional learning systems. At the core of the spectral domain representation of graph signals and systems is the Graph Discrete Fourier Transform (GDFT). The spectral domain representations are then used as the basis to introduce graph signal filtering concepts and address their design, including Chebyshev polynomial approximation series. Ideas related to the sampling of graph signals are presented and further linked with compressive sensing. Localized graph signal analysis in the joint vertex-spectral domain is referred to as the vertex-frequency analysis, since it can be considered as an extension of classical time-frequency analysis to the graph domain of a signal. Important topics related to the local graph Fourier transform (LGFT) are covered, together with its various forms including the graph spectral and vertex domain windows and the inversion conditions and relations. A link between the LGFT with spectral varying window and the spectral graph wavelet transform (SGWT) is also established. Realizations of the LGFT and SGWT using polynomial (Chebyshev) approximations of the spectral functions are further considered. Finally, energy versions of the vertex-frequency representations are introduced.

We study how to generate captions that are not only accurate in describing an image but also discriminative across different images. The problem is both fundamental and interesting, as most machine-generated captions, despite phenomenal research progresses in the past several years, are expressed in a very monotonic and featureless format. While such captions are normally accurate, they often lack important characteristics in human languages - distinctiveness for each caption and diversity for different images. To address this problem, we propose a novel conditional generative adversarial network for generating diverse captions across images. Instead of estimating the quality of a caption solely on one image, the proposed comparative adversarial learning framework better assesses the quality of captions by comparing a set of captions within the image-caption joint space. By contrasting with human-written captions and image-mismatched captions, the caption generator effectively exploits the inherent characteristics of human languages, and generates more discriminative captions. We show that our proposed network is capable of producing accurate and diverse captions across images.