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This work provides a theoretical framework for the pose estimation problem using total least squares for vector observations from landmark features. First, the optimization framework is formulated with observation vectors extracted from point cloud features. Then, error-covariance expressions are derived. The attitude and position solutions obtained via the derived optimization framework are proven to reach the bounds defined by the Cram\'er-Rao lower bound under the small-angle approximation of attitude errors. The measurement data for the simulation of this problem is provided through a series of vector observation scans, and a fully populated observation noise-covariance matrix is assumed as the weight in the cost function to cover the most general case of the sensor uncertainty. Here, previous derivations are expanded for the pose estimation problem to include more generic correlations in the errors than previous cases involving an isotropic noise assumption. The proposed solution is simulated in a Monte-Carlo framework to validate the error-covariance analysis.

We present a novel sampling-based method for estimating probabilities of rare or failure events. Our approach is founded on the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for inverse problems. Therefore, we reformulate the rare event problem as an inverse problem and apply the EnKF to generate failure samples. To estimate the probability of failure, we use the final EnKF samples to fit a distribution model and apply Importance Sampling with respect to the fitted distribution. This leads to an unbiased estimator if the density of the fitted distribution admits positive values within the whole failure domain. To handle multi-modal failure domains, we localise the covariance matrices in the EnKF update step around each particle and fit a mixture distribution model in the Importance Sampling step. For affine linear limit-state functions, we investigate the continuous-time limit and large time properties of the EnKF update. We prove that the mean of the particles converges to a convex combination of the most likely failure point and the mean of the optimal Importance Sampling density if the EnKF is applied without noise. We provide numerical experiments to compare the performance of the EnKF with Sequential Importance Sampling.

We show that underneath the training process of a random forest there lies not only the well known and almost computationally free out-of-bag point estimate of its generalization error, but also a path to compute a confidence interval for the generalization error which does not demand a retraining of the forest or any forms of data splitting. Besides the low computational cost involved in its construction, this confidence interval is shown through simulations to have good coverage and appropriate shrinking rate of its width in terms of the training sample size.

Longitudinal studies are often subject to missing data. The ICH E9(R1) addendum addresses the importance of defining a treatment effect estimand with the consideration of intercurrent events. Jump-to-reference (J2R) is one classically envisioned control-based scenario for the treatment effect evaluation using the hypothetical strategy, where the participants in the treatment group after intercurrent events are assumed to have the same disease progress as those with identical covariates in the control group. We establish new estimators to assess the average treatment effect based on a proposed potential outcomes framework under J2R. Various identification formulas are constructed under the assumptions addressed by J2R, motivating estimators that rely on different parts of the observed data distribution. Moreover, we obtain a novel estimator inspired by the efficient influence function, with multiple robustness in the sense that it achieves $n^{1/2}$-consistency if any pairs of multiple nuisance functions are correctly specified, or if the nuisance functions converge at a rate not slower than $n^{-1/4}$ when using flexible modeling approaches. The finite-sample performance of the proposed estimators is validated in simulation studies and an antidepressant clinical trial.

This paper uses techniques from Random Matrix Theory to find the ideal training-testing data split for a simple linear regression with m data points, each an independent n-dimensional multivariate Gaussian. It defines "ideal" as satisfying the integrity metric, i.e. the empirical model error is the actual measurement noise, and thus fairly reflects the value or lack of same of the model. This paper is the first to solve for the training and test size for any model in a way that is truly optimal. The number of data points in the training set is the root of a quartic polynomial Theorem 1 derives which depends only on m and n; the covariance matrix of the multivariate Gaussian, the true model parameters, and the true measurement noise drop out of the calculations. The critical mathematical difficulties were realizing that the problems herein were discussed in the context of the Jacobi Ensemble, a probability distribution describing the eigenvalues of a known random matrix model, and evaluating a new integral in the style of Selberg and Aomoto. Mathematical results are supported with thorough computational evidence. This paper is a step towards automatic choices of training/test set sizes in machine learning.

Real-world data often comes in compressed form. Analyzing compressed data directly (without decompressing it) can save space and time by orders of magnitude. In this work, we focus on fundamental sequence comparison problems and try to quantify the gain in time complexity when the underlying data is highly compressible. We consider grammar compression, which unifies many practically relevant compression schemes. For two strings of total length $N$ and total compressed size $n$, it is known that the edit distance and a longest common subsequence (LCS) can be computed exactly in time $\tilde{O}(nN)$, as opposed to $O(N^2)$ for the uncompressed setting. Many applications need to align multiple sequences simultaneously, and the fastest known exact algorithms for median edit distance and LCS of $k$ strings run in $O(N^k)$ time. This naturally raises the question of whether compression can help to reduce the running time significantly for $k \geq 3$, perhaps to $O(N^{k/2}n^{k/2})$ or $O(Nn^{k-1})$. Unfortunately, we show lower bounds that rule out any improvement beyond $\Omega(N^{k-1}n)$ time for any of these problems assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis. At the same time, we show that approximation and compression together can be surprisingly effective. We develop an $\tilde{O}(N^{k/2}n^{k/2})$-time FPTAS for the median edit distance of $k$ sequences. In comparison, no $O(N^{k-\Omega(1)})$-time PTAS is known for the median edit distance problem in the uncompressed setting. For two strings, we get an $\tilde{O}(N^{2/3}n^{4/3})$-time FPTAS for both edit distance and LCS. In contrast, for uncompressed strings, there is not even a subquadratic algorithm for LCS that has less than a polynomial gap in the approximation factor. Building on the insight from our approximation algorithms, we also obtain results for many distance measures including the edit, Hamming, and shift distances.

Spatially inhomogeneous functions, which may be smooth in some regions and rough in other regions, are modelled naturally in a Bayesian manner using so-called Besov priors which are given by random wavelet expansions with Laplace-distributed coefficients. This paper studies theoretical guarantees for such prior measures - specifically, we examine their frequentist posterior contraction rates in the setting of non-linear inverse problems with Gaussian white noise. Our results are first derived under a general local Lipschitz assumption on the forward map. We then verify the assumption for two non-linear inverse problems arising from elliptic partial differential equations, the Darcy flow model from geophysics as well as a model for the Schr\"odinger equation appearing in tomography. In the course of the proofs, we also obtain novel concentration inequalities for penalized least squares estimators with $\ell^1$ wavelet penalty, which have a natural interpretation as maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimators. The true parameter is assumed to belong to some spatially inhomogeneous Besov class $B^{\alpha}_{11}$, $\alpha>0$. In a setting with direct observations, we complement these upper bounds with a lower bound on the rate of contraction for arbitrary Gaussian priors. An immediate consequence of our results is that while Laplace priors can achieve minimax-optimal rates over $B^{\alpha}_{11}$-classes, Gaussian priors are limited to a (by a polynomial factor) slower contraction rate. This gives information-theoretical justification for the intuition that Laplace priors are more compatible with $\ell^1$ regularity structure in the underlying parameter.

Counterfactual explanations are usually generated through heuristics that are sensitive to the search's initial conditions. The absence of guarantees of performance and robustness hinders trustworthiness. In this paper, we take a disciplined approach towards counterfactual explanations for tree ensembles. We advocate for a model-based search aiming at "optimal" explanations and propose efficient mixed-integer programming approaches. We show that isolation forests can be modeled within our framework to focus the search on plausible explanations with a low outlier score. We provide comprehensive coverage of additional constraints that model important objectives, heterogeneous data types, structural constraints on the feature space, along with resource and actionability restrictions. Our experimental analyses demonstrate that the proposed search approach requires a computational effort that is orders of magnitude smaller than previous mathematical programming algorithms. It scales up to large data sets and tree ensembles, where it provides, within seconds, systematic explanations grounded on well-defined models solved to optimality.

We consider the task of learning the parameters of a {\em single} component of a mixture model, for the case when we are given {\em side information} about that component, we call this the "search problem" in mixture models. We would like to solve this with computational and sample complexity lower than solving the overall original problem, where one learns parameters of all components. Our main contributions are the development of a simple but general model for the notion of side information, and a corresponding simple matrix-based algorithm for solving the search problem in this general setting. We then specialize this model and algorithm to four common scenarios: Gaussian mixture models, LDA topic models, subspace clustering, and mixed linear regression. For each one of these we show that if (and only if) the side information is informative, we obtain parameter estimates with greater accuracy, and also improved computation complexity than existing moment based mixture model algorithms (e.g. tensor methods). We also illustrate several natural ways one can obtain such side information, for specific problem instances. Our experiments on real data sets (NY Times, Yelp, BSDS500) further demonstrate the practicality of our algorithms showing significant improvement in runtime and accuracy.

This study considers the 3D human pose estimation problem in a single RGB image by proposing a conditional random field (CRF) model over 2D poses, in which the 3D pose is obtained as a byproduct of the inference process. The unary term of the proposed CRF model is defined based on a powerful heat-map regression network, which has been proposed for 2D human pose estimation. This study also presents a regression network for lifting the 2D pose to 3D pose and proposes the prior term based on the consistency between the estimated 3D pose and the 2D pose. To obtain the approximate solution of the proposed CRF model, the N-best strategy is adopted. The proposed inference algorithm can be viewed as sequential processes of bottom-up generation of 2D and 3D pose proposals from the input 2D image based on deep networks and top-down verification of such proposals by checking their consistencies. To evaluate the proposed method, we use two large-scale datasets: Human3.6M and HumanEva. Experimental results show that the proposed method achieves the state-of-the-art 3D human pose estimation performance.