Randomized controlled clinical trials provide the gold standard for evidence generation in relation to the effectiveness of a new treatment in medical research. Relevant information from previous studies may be desirable to incorporate in the design of a new trial, with the Bayesian paradigm providing a coherent framework to formally incorporate prior knowledge. Many established methods involve the use of a discounting factor, sometimes related to a measure of `similarity' between historical sources and the new trial. However, it is often the case that the sample size is highly nonlinear in those discounting factors. This hinders communication with subject-matter experts to elicit sensible values for borrowing strength at the trial design stage. Focusing on a sample size formula that can incorporate historical data from multiple sources, we propose a linearization technique such that the sample size changes evenly over values of the discounting factors (hereafter referred to as `weights'). Our approach leads to interpretable weights that directly represent the dissimilarity between historical and new trial data on the probability scale, and could therefore facilitate easier elicitation of expert opinion on their values. Inclusion of historical data in the design of clinical trials is not common practice. Part of the reason might be difficulty in interpretability of discrepancy parameters. We hope our work will help to bridge this gap and encourage uptake of these innovative methods. Keywords: Bayesian sample size determination; Commensurate priors; Historical borrowing; Prior aggregation; Uniform shrinkage.
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Camera calibration is a process of paramount importance in computer vision applications that require accurate quantitative measurements. The popular method developed by Zhang relies on the use of a large number of images of a planar grid of fiducial points captured in multiple poses. Although flexible and easy to implement, Zhang's method has some limitations. The simultaneous optimization of the entire parameter set, including the coefficients of a predefined distortion model, may result in poor distortion correction at the image boundaries or in miscalculation of the intrinsic parameters, even with a reasonably small reprojection error. Indeed, applications involving image stitching (e.g. multi-camera systems) require accurate mapping of distortion up to the outermost regions of the image. Moreover, intrinsic parameters affect the accuracy of camera pose estimation, which is fundamental for applications such as vision servoing in robot navigation and automated assembly. This paper proposes a method for estimating the complete set of calibration parameters from a single image of a planar speckle pattern covering the entire sensor. The correspondence between image points and physical points on the calibration target is obtained using Digital Image Correlation. The effective focal length and the extrinsic parameters are calculated separately after a prior evaluation of the principal point. At the end of the procedure, a dense and uniform model-free distortion map is obtained over the entire image. Synthetic data with different noise levels were used to test the feasibility of the proposed method and to compare its metrological performance with Zhang's method. Real-world tests demonstrate the potential of the developed method to reveal aspects of the image formation that are hidden by averaging over multiple images.
With the growing prevalence of diabetes and the associated public health burden, it is crucial to identify modifiable factors that could improve patients' glycemic control. In this work, we seek to examine associations between medication usage, concurrent comorbidities, and glycemic control, utilizing data from continuous glucose monitor (CGMs). CGMs provide interstitial glucose measurements, but reducing data to simple statistical summaries is common in clinical studies, resulting in substantial information loss. Recent advancements in the Frechet regression framework allow to utilize more information by treating the full distributional representation of CGM data as the response, while sparsity regularization enables variable selection. However, the methodology does not scale to large datasets. Crucially, variable selection inference using subsampling methods is computationally infeasible. We develop a new algorithm for sparse distributional regression by deriving a new explicit characterization of the gradient and Hessian of the underlying objective function, while also utilizing rotations on the sphere to perform feasible updates. The updated method is up to 10000-fold faster than the original approach, opening the door for applying sparse distributional regression to large-scale datasets and enabling previously unattainable subsampling-based inference. Applying our method to CGM data from patients with type 2 diabetes and obstructive sleep apnea, we found a significant association between sulfonylurea medication and glucose variability without evidence of association with glucose mean. We also found that overnight oxygen desaturation variability showed a stronger association with glucose regulation than overall oxygen desaturation levels.
We obtain sharp upper and lower bounds for the expected max-sliced 1-Wasserstein distance between a probability measure on a separable Hilbert space and its empirical distribution from $n$ samples. A version of this result for probability measures on Banach spaces is also obtained.
We introduce so-called functional input neural networks defined on a possibly infinite dimensional weighted space with values also in a possibly infinite dimensional output space. To this end, we use an additive family to map the input weighted space to the hidden layer, on which a non-linear scalar activation function is applied to each neuron, and finally return the output via some linear readouts. Relying on Stone-Weierstrass theorems on weighted spaces, we can prove a global universal approximation result on weighted spaces for continuous functions going beyond the usual approximation on compact sets. This then applies in particular to approximation of (non-anticipative) path space functionals via functional input neural networks. As a further application of the weighted Stone-Weierstrass theorem we prove a global universal approximation result for linear functions of the signature. We also introduce the viewpoint of Gaussian process regression in this setting and emphasize that the reproducing kernel Hilbert space of the signature kernels are Cameron-Martin spaces of certain Gaussian processes. This paves a way towards uncertainty quantification for signature kernel regression.
This paper presents a method for thematic agreement assessment of geospatial data products of different semantics and spatial granularities, which may be affected by spatial offsets between test and reference data. The proposed method uses a multi-scale framework allowing for a probabilistic evaluation whether thematic disagreement between datasets is induced by spatial offsets due to different nature of the datasets or not. We test our method using real-estate derived settlement locations and remote-sensing derived building footprint data.
Many phenomena in real world social networks are interpreted as spread of influence between activated and non-activated network elements. These phenomena are formulated by combinatorial graphs, where vertices represent the elements and edges represent social ties between elements. A main problem is to study important subsets of elements (target sets or dynamic monopolies) such that their activation spreads to the entire network. In edge-weighted networks the influence between two adjacent vertices depends on the weight of their edge. In models with incentives, the main problem is to minimize total amount of incentives (called optimal target vectors) which can be offered to vertices such that some vertices are activated and their activation spreads to the whole network. Algorithmic study of target sets and vectors is a hot research field. We prove an inapproximability result for optimal target sets in edge weighted networks even for complete graphs. Some other hardness and polynomial time results are presented for optimal target vectors and degenerate threshold assignments in edge-weighted networks.
We derive sharp-interface models for one-dimensional brittle fracture via the inverse-deformation approach. Methods of Gamma-convergence are employed to obtain the singular limits of previously proposed models. The latter feature a local, non-convex stored energy of inverse strain, augmented by small interfacial energy, formulated in terms of the inverse-strain gradient. They predict spontaneous fracture with exact crack-opening discontinuities, without the use of damage (phase) fields or pre-existing cracks; crack faces are endowed with a thin layer of surface energy. The models obtained herewith inherit the same properties, except that surface energy is now concentrated at the crack faces. Accordingly, we construct energy-minimizing configurations. For a composite bar with a breakable layer, our results predict a pattern of equally spaced cracks whose number is given as an increasing function of applied load.
Tactile sensing in mobile robots remains under-explored, mainly due to challenges related to sensor integration and the complexities of distributed sensing. In this work, we present a tactile sensing architecture for mobile robots based on wheel-mounted acoustic waveguides. Our sensor architecture enables tactile sensing along the entire circumference of a wheel with a single active component: an off-the-shelf acoustic rangefinder. We present findings showing that our sensor, mounted on the wheel of a mobile robot, is capable of discriminating between different terrains, detecting and classifying obstacles with different geometries, and performing collision detection via contact localization. We also present a comparison between our sensor and sensors traditionally used in mobile robots, and point to the potential for sensor fusion approaches that leverage the unique capabilities of our tactile sensing architecture. Our findings demonstrate that autonomous mobile robots can further leverage our sensor architecture for diverse mapping tasks requiring knowledge of terrain material, surface topology, and underlying structure.
In large-scale, data-driven applications, parameters are often only known approximately due to noise and limited data samples. In this paper, we focus on high-dimensional optimization problems with linear constraints under uncertain conditions. To find high quality solutions for which the violation of the true constraints is limited, we develop a linear shrinkage method that blends random matrix theory and robust optimization principles. It aims to minimize the Frobenius distance between the estimated and the true parameter matrix, especially when dealing with a large and comparable number of constraints and variables. This data-driven method excels in simulations, showing superior noise resilience and more stable performance in both obtaining high quality solutions and adhering to the true constraints compared to traditional robust optimization. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of our method in improving the robustness and reliability of optimization in high-dimensional, data-driven scenarios.
In large-scale systems there are fundamental challenges when centralised techniques are used for task allocation. The number of interactions is limited by resource constraints such as on computation, storage, and network communication. We can increase scalability by implementing the system as a distributed task-allocation system, sharing tasks across many agents. However, this also increases the resource cost of communications and synchronisation, and is difficult to scale. In this paper we present four algorithms to solve these problems. The combination of these algorithms enable each agent to improve their task allocation strategy through reinforcement learning, while changing how much they explore the system in response to how optimal they believe their current strategy is, given their past experience. We focus on distributed agent systems where the agents' behaviours are constrained by resource usage limits, limiting agents to local rather than system-wide knowledge. We evaluate these algorithms in a simulated environment where agents are given a task composed of multiple subtasks that must be allocated to other agents with differing capabilities, to then carry out those tasks. We also simulate real-life system effects such as networking instability. Our solution is shown to solve the task allocation problem to 6.7% of the theoretical optimal within the system configurations considered. It provides 5x better performance recovery over no-knowledge retention approaches when system connectivity is impacted, and is tested against systems up to 100 agents with less than a 9% impact on the algorithms' performance.
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