Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense that the same model will yield contradictory posteriors on independent data sets from the true distribution. To define a criterion for reproducible uncertainty quantification under misspecification, we consider the probability that two confidence sets constructed from independent data sets have nonempty overlap, and we establish a lower bound on this overlap probability that holds for any valid confidence sets. We prove that credible sets from the standard posterior can strongly violate this bound, particularly in high-dimensional settings (i.e., with dimension increasing with sample size), indicating that it is not internally coherent under misspecification. To improve reproducibility in an easy-to-use and widely applicable way, we propose to apply bagging to the Bayesian posterior ("BayesBag"'); that is, to use the average of posterior distributions conditioned on bootstrapped datasets. We motivate BayesBag from first principles based on Jeffrey conditionalization and show that the bagged posterior typically satisfies the overlap lower bound. Further, we prove a Bernstein--Von Mises theorem for the bagged posterior, establishing its asymptotic normal distribution. We demonstrate the benefits of BayesBag via simulation experiments and an application to crime rate prediction.
相關內容
Canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is a classic statistical method for discovering latent co-variation that underpins two or more observed random vectors. Several extensions and variations of CCA have been proposed that have strengthened our capabilities in terms of revealing common random factors from multiview datasets. In this work, we first revisit the most recent deterministic extensions of deep CCA and highlight the strengths and limitations of these state-of-the-art methods. Some methods allow trivial solutions, while others can miss weak common factors. Others overload the problem by also seeking to reveal what is not common among the views -- i.e., the private components that are needed to fully reconstruct each view. The latter tends to overload the problem and its computational and sample complexities. Aiming to improve upon these limitations, we design a novel and efficient formulation that alleviates some of the current restrictions. The main idea is to model the private components as conditionally independent given the common ones, which enables the proposed compact formulation. In addition, we also provide a sufficient condition for identifying the common random factors. Judicious experiments with synthetic and real datasets showcase the validity of our claims and the effectiveness of the proposed approach.
The quality of Optical Music Recognition (OMR) systems is a rather difficult magnitude to measure. There is no lingua franca shared among OMR datasets that allows to compare systems' performance on equal grounds, since most of them are specialised on certain approaches. As a result, most state-of-the-art works currently report metrics that cannot be compared directly. In this paper we identify the need of a common music representation language and propose the Music Tree Notation (MTN) format, thanks to which the definition of standard metrics is possible. This format represents music as a set of primitives that group together into higher-abstraction nodes, a compromise between the expression of fully graph-based and sequential notation formats. We have also developed a specific set of OMR metrics and a typeset score dataset as a proof of concept of this idea.
At the heart of contemporary recommender systems (RSs) are latent factor models that provide quality recommendation experience to users. These models use embedding vectors, which are typically of a uniform and fixed size, to represent users and items. As the number of users and items continues to grow, this design becomes inefficient and hard to scale. Recent lightweight embedding methods have enabled different users and items to have diverse embedding sizes, but are commonly subject to two major drawbacks. Firstly, they limit the embedding size search to optimizing a heuristic balancing the recommendation quality and the memory complexity, where the trade-off coefficient needs to be manually tuned for every memory budget requested. The implicitly enforced memory complexity term can even fail to cap the parameter usage, making the resultant embedding table fail to meet the memory budget strictly. Secondly, most solutions, especially reinforcement learning based ones derive and optimize the embedding size for each each user/item on an instance-by-instance basis, which impedes the search efficiency. In this paper, we propose Budgeted Embedding Table (BET), a novel method that generates table-level actions (i.e., embedding sizes for all users and items) that is guaranteed to meet pre-specified memory budgets. Furthermore, by leveraging a set-based action formulation and engaging set representation learning, we present an innovative action search strategy powered by an action fitness predictor that efficiently evaluates each table-level action. Experiments have shown state-of-the-art performance on two real-world datasets when BET is paired with three popular recommender models under different memory budgets.
Being the most classical generative model for serial data, state-space models (SSM) are fundamental in AI and statistical machine learning. In SSM, any form of parameter learning or latent state inference typically involves the computation of complex latent-state posteriors. In this work, we build upon the variational sequential Monte Carlo (VSMC) method, which provides computationally efficient and accurate model parameter estimation and Bayesian latent-state inference by combining particle methods and variational inference. While standard VSMC operates in the offline mode, by re-processing repeatedly a given batch of data, we distribute the approximation of the gradient of the VSMC surrogate ELBO in time using stochastic approximation, allowing for online learning in the presence of streams of data. This results in an algorithm, online VSMC, that is capable of performing efficiently, entirely on-the-fly, both parameter estimation and particle proposal adaptation. In addition, we provide rigorous theoretical results describing the algorithm's convergence properties as the number of data tends to infinity as well as numerical illustrations of its excellent convergence properties and usefulness also in batch-processing settings.
Scientists have demonstrated that quantum computing has presented novel approaches to address computational challenges, each varying in complexity. Adapting problem-solving strategies is crucial to harness the full potential of quantum computing. Nonetheless, there are defined boundaries to the capabilities of quantum computing. This paper concentrates on aggregating prior research efforts dedicated to solving intricate classical computational problems through quantum computing. The objective is to systematically compile an exhaustive inventory of these solutions and categorize a collection of demanding problems that await further exploration.
Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have been successfully used in many problems involving graph-structured data, achieving state-of-the-art performance. GNNs typically employ a message-passing scheme, in which every node aggregates information from its neighbors using a permutation-invariant aggregation function. Standard well-examined choices such as the mean or sum aggregation functions have limited capabilities, as they are not able to capture interactions among neighbors. In this work, we formalize these interactions using an information-theoretic framework that notably includes synergistic information. Driven by this definition, we introduce the Graph Ordering Attention (GOAT) layer, a novel GNN component that captures interactions between nodes in a neighborhood. This is achieved by learning local node orderings via an attention mechanism and processing the ordered representations using a recurrent neural network aggregator. This design allows us to make use of a permutation-sensitive aggregator while maintaining the permutation-equivariance of the proposed GOAT layer. The GOAT model demonstrates its increased performance in modeling graph metrics that capture complex information, such as the betweenness centrality and the effective size of a node. In practical use-cases, its superior modeling capability is confirmed through its success in several real-world node classification benchmarks.
The conjoining of dynamical systems and deep learning has become a topic of great interest. In particular, neural differential equations (NDEs) demonstrate that neural networks and differential equation are two sides of the same coin. Traditional parameterised differential equations are a special case. Many popular neural network architectures, such as residual networks and recurrent networks, are discretisations. NDEs are suitable for tackling generative problems, dynamical systems, and time series (particularly in physics, finance, ...) and are thus of interest to both modern machine learning and traditional mathematical modelling. NDEs offer high-capacity function approximation, strong priors on model space, the ability to handle irregular data, memory efficiency, and a wealth of available theory on both sides. This doctoral thesis provides an in-depth survey of the field. Topics include: neural ordinary differential equations (e.g. for hybrid neural/mechanistic modelling of physical systems); neural controlled differential equations (e.g. for learning functions of irregular time series); and neural stochastic differential equations (e.g. to produce generative models capable of representing complex stochastic dynamics, or sampling from complex high-dimensional distributions). Further topics include: numerical methods for NDEs (e.g. reversible differential equations solvers, backpropagation through differential equations, Brownian reconstruction); symbolic regression for dynamical systems (e.g. via regularised evolution); and deep implicit models (e.g. deep equilibrium models, differentiable optimisation). We anticipate this thesis will be of interest to anyone interested in the marriage of deep learning with dynamical systems, and hope it will provide a useful reference for the current state of the art.
Recently, a considerable literature has grown up around the theme of Graph Convolutional Network (GCN). How to effectively leverage the rich structural information in complex graphs, such as knowledge graphs with heterogeneous types of entities and relations, is a primary open challenge in the field. Most GCN methods are either restricted to graphs with a homogeneous type of edges (e.g., citation links only), or focusing on representation learning for nodes only instead of jointly propagating and updating the embeddings of both nodes and edges for target-driven objectives. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a novel framework, namely the Knowledge Embedding based Graph Convolutional Network (KE-GCN), which combines the power of GCNs in graph-based belief propagation and the strengths of advanced knowledge embedding (a.k.a. knowledge graph embedding) methods, and goes beyond. Our theoretical analysis shows that KE-GCN offers an elegant unification of several well-known GCN methods as specific cases, with a new perspective of graph convolution. Experimental results on benchmark datasets show the advantageous performance of KE-GCN over strong baseline methods in the tasks of knowledge graph alignment and entity classification.
Embedding models for deterministic Knowledge Graphs (KG) have been extensively studied, with the purpose of capturing latent semantic relations between entities and incorporating the structured knowledge into machine learning. However, there are many KGs that model uncertain knowledge, which typically model the inherent uncertainty of relations facts with a confidence score, and embedding such uncertain knowledge represents an unresolved challenge. The capturing of uncertain knowledge will benefit many knowledge-driven applications such as question answering and semantic search by providing more natural characterization of the knowledge. In this paper, we propose a novel uncertain KG embedding model UKGE, which aims to preserve both structural and uncertainty information of relation facts in the embedding space. Unlike previous models that characterize relation facts with binary classification techniques, UKGE learns embeddings according to the confidence scores of uncertain relation facts. To further enhance the precision of UKGE, we also introduce probabilistic soft logic to infer confidence scores for unseen relation facts during training. We propose and evaluate two variants of UKGE based on different learning objectives. Experiments are conducted on three real-world uncertain KGs via three tasks, i.e. confidence prediction, relation fact ranking, and relation fact classification. UKGE shows effectiveness in capturing uncertain knowledge by achieving promising results on these tasks, and consistently outperforms baselines on these tasks.
We investigate a lattice-structured LSTM model for Chinese NER, which encodes a sequence of input characters as well as all potential words that match a lexicon. Compared with character-based methods, our model explicitly leverages word and word sequence information. Compared with word-based methods, lattice LSTM does not suffer from segmentation errors. Gated recurrent cells allow our model to choose the most relevant characters and words from a sentence for better NER results. Experiments on various datasets show that lattice LSTM outperforms both word-based and character-based LSTM baselines, achieving the best results.
注冊地址： 北京市海淀區羊坊店路18號2幢3層301-191